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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

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3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Some ensemble support for a Caribbean storm in December.  Which would be interesting.  But probably won't happen.

 Going back to 1851, I've found only three TS formations in the SW Caribbean on record for after November 20th (there were also two in the NW Caribbean and a couple on or just before 11/20 if I'm not mistaken):

1. 12/4/2003: Odette later became a high end TS that crossed Hispaniola December 6th. Warm neutral ENSO.

2. On 11/21/1969, TS Martha was named. This moved SW and later became a cat 1 hurricane. It then weakened into a TS that made landfall on Panama on 11/24/1969, which is the only Panama landfall of a TS+ I've been able to find. Weak El Nino.

3. On 11/22/1862, TS #6 was born. It strengthened to a high end TS but hardly moved before dissipating on 11/25. Cold neutral ENSO.

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14 hours ago, yoda said:

00z GFS wishes to leave a parting gift in the uber LR

It had something similar 24 hours earlier. Considering how late in the season this would be (see my post just above this to show how anomalous this would be), I suspect this is due to convective feedback, a problem the GFS has often had in the Caribbean in recent years. Even for Lisa, the GFS kept having hurricanes including some majors in the climo unfavored E Caribbean. Lisa's genesis wasn't even until the C Caribbean. At a minimum, I think it can be safely said that the GFS has a strong bullish bias, especially in the Caribbean, in regard to both genesis and strengthening. So, whereas nobody knows for sure that there won't be a TCG in the SW Caribbean near the end of this month, climo and it being mainly the GFS says extremely unlikely. I say mainly GFS because I think the 12Z CMC had something.

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1 hour ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Just for a good laugh


 Climo says extremely unlikely for a TCG that late in the season, but fwiw I count a rather notable 6 of the 52 (12%) 12Z EPS members with a TS in the W Car between 11/27 and 12/3. That compares to only 1, 3, and 0 on the prior three long range runs. That is not exactly what one would expect to see that late in the season on the EPS. On the GEFS or GEPS, 12% wouldn't be notable.

 Til 12Z today, this was purely a GFS out in fantasy land storm. But the 12Z CMC had something and now the EPS is possibly doing a little sniffing fwiw.

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