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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


StormchaserChuck!
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1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

95L worth its own topic?  The SHIPS isn't as bad as might be expected for deep, medium and shallow level steering models being so spread out, a quick hint of shear.

 Please start the 95L thread if you think it is worthy. I personally think that the 70% chance of TD+ within 5 days for this is too high considering mostly unimpressive model consensus and think it is more like 40% as of now:

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward 
for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the 
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this 
weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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 Meanwhile, the model consensus based on the latest runs of each model (12Z, 6Z, 0Z) continues to suggest a weak low in the SW Caribbean ~November 3rd. This is not Invest 95L. (Future 96L??) This includes the 12Z runs of the ICON, CMC, GFS, Euro, and UKMET. The GFS is another run that does a "wrong way Lenny" with it as it takes it ENE to near W PR. Take that with a huge grain, of course.

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2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Please start the 95L thread if you think it is worthy. I personally think that the 70% chance of TD+ within 5 days for this is too high considering mostly unimpressive model consensus and think it is more like 40% as of now:

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward 
for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the 
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this 
weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

I can wait a day to see if dry air and shear let up,  mess on visible satellite.

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 For the 3rd-4th day in a row, the 12Z model consensus (every model actually including ensembles) has a potential Invest 96-L with a new sfc low forming in the SW Caribbean on 11/3. Most of the models keep it weak though the Icon gets it a bit stronger further NW. The 12Z GFS as usual has the wildest solution with it having a H hitting Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and Daytona Beach.

  
 18Z GFS takes the weak low that forms in the SW Caribbean on 11/3 and has a similar solution to the 12Z except that it hits Bermuda instead of Daytona Beach for the final landfall shown on the run. Taking with a gigantic grain because it is the GFS. Regardless of what the GFS shows, all models are still showing a weak low forming on 11/3 in the SW Caribbean, which would probably need to be watched as that is the most climo favored location in the entire basin in early November.

 I think I'll withhold comment on the 0Z GFS for now.:arrowhead:

  

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2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

So I'm counting like 8 tropical storms on the 06z GFS?

  I thought you were exaggerating for comic effect but by golly I think I counted 8, myself! I can trace two of them to the possible 11/3 SW Caribbean genesis, itself, (which I do think may need to be watched) with one of those becoming a cat 2 H in the Leewards. :clown:

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On 10/28/2022 at 3:50 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I can wait a day to see if dry air and shear let up,  mess on visible satellite.


8AM 8/30 TWO says better organized and could be a major flooding rainfall threat, which may be bad news for some areas and would imho make it thread worthy: 1. Central Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
However, overnight satellite wind data suggest the circulation is
gradually becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central and
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the
progress of this system. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be investigating the system this morning. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and Jamaica during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Looks like the NHC is thinking this becomes another hurricane. Assuming Lisa doesn't have time to reach Category 3, that would put us at 15/7/2.

13 named storms with Martin 

 

as of today the score is 13-5-2 but who’s counting ? LoL

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On 10/11/2022 at 11:35 AM, GaWx said:

 There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. For 2021, I counted the precursor to Wanda, which was Invest 94L from the start and resulted in a powerful nor'easter in the NE US:

 

 This idea about the likelihood of one more impactful system is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L should it happen to have significant impact.

 Update based on the near 100% expectation that Lisa will end up having significant land impacts:

 For the years 1995-2022, there have been 14 La Niña seasons. Out of these 14, only two had no significant western basin land impacts from TCs with TCG 10/22+: 1995 and 2000. The precursor to Wanda in 2021 (Invest 94L starting off NC) was very strong (winds over 100 mph in Mass.) and thus was counted. The last 10 La Niña seasons in a row (back to 2005) have fallen into this late impact category.

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 11/2/2022 is the first day on record with two hurricane designations on the same day in November. 

 There have been only two other years on record with two simultaneous hurricanes in November: 1932 and 2001. But 2001's/1932's November hurricanes were designated three/four days apart.

 The latest date for two simultaneous hurricanes on record is November 10th, set in 1932. Next latest is November 5th, set in 2001.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I closed the shades on tropical weeks ago, but definitely impressive to have two Atlantic canes and a strong signal for subtropical development off the SE coast in November. 

Same here.  Bummer.  I had already spent my prize money for winning the forecast contest 

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