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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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The Hadley Cell really flexed this Winter, we had a +180dm N. Pacific anomaly, when the average for a Weak-Nina is +60dm+60dm 30% error. I think that general energy potential should extend into the Atlantic Hurricane season, keeping warm SSTs/calmer conditions generally farther north through the season. ENSO state is the wild card. 

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vland/ocean

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Weak El Nino coming for Hurricane Season

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I saw this last year there was a statistical anomaly/point, let's see if it carries this year. 

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--SSTs are super warm and warming. We had a streak of like 10 consecutive years with El Nino of 12 or less names storms, and some even in the middle of a really active period in the 2000s.  In 2018-2019, the last El Nino we had 15 named storms. It will be interesting to see if can break that 15 number mark, it seems other conditions are super favorable. (We had 8 named storms in 14-15 a weak El Nino lol)  [Averaged like 9 storms in El Nino when the average is 20]

 

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On 5/9/2022 at 8:51 PM, cptcatz said:

There's been some pretty solid signal for long range development in the western Caribbean.  Both GFS and Euro are sniffing it out...

 

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6z GFS went all in on it. Has a hurricane hitting Florida in May…

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Today's 12z marks 10 GFS runs in a row with a sub-990 mb storm forming and cyclogenesis is now within a week out...

Wouldn't be a good way to start off the season with a GFS bust.

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GFS shifted south, between Cuba and Florida. Certainly it will be all over the place for the next week.

A good typical late May Tropical Storm around here would not be totally unwelcome. Although always inconvenient for some in low areas or with weak trees.

I'd love to host the first Storm of the season. No Hurricanes invited...

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