Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,178
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Fdre1234
    Newest Member
    Fdre1234
    Joined

2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


Recommended Posts

The GFS has had this for something like 15 runs in a row while none of the other models have anything like this. Either:

 

The GFS is on to a 2012 Sandy like coup that  gave the Euro the reputation that it had OR

 

It is on to a 2015 Mid Atlantic Blizzard forecast  that the Euro was alone on that never materialized and started the Euro's downward trend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS is sticking with a strong TS/weak cane near the Yucatan but backed off blowing it up in the Gulf.  This what you're looking for in Tampa?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh222-252.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, cptcatz said:

18z GFS is sticking with a strong TS/weak cane near the Yucatan but backed off blowing it up in the Gulf.  This what you're looking for in Tampa?

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh222-252.gif

And it’s back 

image.thumb.png.f04ba9bc407bc18a7dc1d5838b169e3f.png

also has it redevelop and hit the Carolinas 

image.thumb.png.2ece58aa42b25861dfa9dee498bff0e9.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Prospero said:

I see a couple other models are now starting to pick up a hint of a low forming around the Yucatan.

It's good to finally have something worth posting about :) 

I just went through the GEFS and EPS, it looks like one of the main differences is where the energy coalesces. On the GEFS, the signal is for more eastern development in the western Caribbean, which the EPS mostly keeps things suppressed and develops more in the EPAC. Climo kinda favors EPAC right now, but if we can get moisture to stream more north toward the Yucatan, that increases odds of something forming on our side of tracks. 

Still not quite ready for primetime yet with any higher end tropical development absent excellent upper level conditions, IMO. 

cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

 

IyNMYxL.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS still spinning a storm in the Gulf. Granted, it has been all over the place, but hanging on.

It is approaching late May, we do get storms this early.

I'm not worried about a Laura, Michael, etc. But a TS would be nice. ;)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Prospero said:

GFS still spinning a storm in the Gulf. Granted, it has been all over the place, but hanging on.

It is approaching late May, we do get storms this early.

I'm not worried about a Laura, Michael, etc. But a TS would be nice. ;)

 

A gradually intensifying TS that brings a good rain would be a nice appetizer. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A gradually intensifying TS that brings a good rain would be a nice appetizer. 

But then what might be OK for the Florida peninsula would not be as welcome in LA.

image.thumb.png.4029c63d8b47a50a21334747052d5872.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although I know the GFS is smoking something...Definitely potential there if something does spin up. Of course with more troughs moving into the gulf this time of year, potential Is more limited, but I could definitely see a strong hybrid type system somewhere. 

atlpot.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My wife puts on the Weather Channel for her daily afternoon nap while she is comfy in her recliner chair. I'm on my PC in my office in the next room, but in the background did I hear them talking about Tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico (based on GFS)?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

The GFS has been like a dog that will not just let go of his grip.  Jeez, run after run for day after day the GFS has been insistent that something is going to get going in the NW Caribbean or Gulf.  If this would ever come to fruition the GFS will have scored a total respect from me.  

 

 

Even if totally wrong, I'm a fan as having something to see a couple or so times a day for a couple weeks. My first 2022 season excitement! I am voting for GFS, but not betting money on it. Still worth coming to see every day what it's model predicts. :)

Later on may judge by what happens now, but for today, I love the Spring energy!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First time this season the bearish Euro has shown a solid TC in the Atlantic.  Seems like over the past few years the Euro showing a TC is not something to brush off...

ec-fast_uv850_vort_watl_fh240-240.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, cptcatz said:

First time this season the bearish Euro has shown a solid TC in the Atlantic.  Seems like over the past few years the Euro showing a TC is not something to brush off...

ec-fast_uv850_vort_watl_fh240-240.gif

TS formation in the BOC in June happens more often than not.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/17/2022 at 8:11 AM, olafminesaw said:

Although I know the GFS is smoking something...Definitely potential there if something does spin up. Of course with more troughs moving into the gulf this time of year, potential Is more limited, but I could definitely see a strong hybrid type system somewhere. 

atlpot.jpeg

Not sure if there has been a study to combine cyclone speed with subsea topography and OHC to develop a better predictor for max cyclone intensity.  A faster cyclone, even if strong, would seem to have less time to upwell cooler water before the center passes.  I know 1938 was probably baroclinically enhanced, it had very little time over colder water to weaken, however because of its speed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Not sure if there has been a study to combine cyclone speed with subsea topography and OHC to develop a better predictor for max cyclone intensity.  A faster cyclone, even if strong, would seem to have less time to upwell cooler water before the center passes.  I know 1938 was probably baroclinically enhanced, it had very little time over colder water to weaken, however because of its speed.

I suspect the reason Texas has never had a Cat 5 is not a shallow subsurface meaning very low OHC, I think it is strong storms would start entraining downsloping air off the Chihuahuan desert highlands.  If not for that, SSTs would support more than Cat 4.  (Now, if things like the Gulf's average SST's do rise w/ climate change, maybe not even dry air could stop a smaller storm, but I wonder if warmer SSTs would cause warmer upper level temps with time, keeping instability from rising as quickly)

Gulfminmax.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The big three are all in agreement of a sub-1000 storm passing near/over the Florida peninsula.  Probably looking like something like Eta's impacts for us here.

ec-fast_ow850_watl_fh240-240.gif

gfs_ow850_watl_fh180-180.gif

gem_ow850_watl_fh228-228.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It appears that the ECMWF keeps a would-be Agatha as a closed low as it crosses from the Pacific into the Atlantic basin. When was the last time we had a named storm (TS or higher) cross basins in this manner?

I know TD-11 crossed over and developed into a TS in 2010, but it only got named Hermine after it crossed.

Note that I do see several Atlantic-to-Pacific crossovers, but few Pacific-to-Atlantic crossovers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, cptcatz said:

The big three are all in agreement of a sub-1000 storm passing near/over the Florida peninsula.  Probably looking like something like Eta's impacts for us here.

ec-fast_ow850_watl_fh240-240.gif

gfs_ow850_watl_fh180-180.gif

gem_ow850_watl_fh228-228.gif

Ensemble signal on the EPS/GEFS looks solid as well for this range. Need a little more time to figure what the seed for development looks like, whether it’s the actual EPAC system per the Euro or some other area of vorticity a la GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...