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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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I know TD-11 crossed over and developed into a TS in 2010, but it only got named Hermine after it crossed.

Hermine was one of the three most impressive storms here in Tampa Bay over the past ten years or so. Barely scraped us, but trees and power went down. I still remember it like yesterday. What a mess!

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8 hours ago, Prospero said:

Hermine was one of the three most impressive storms here in Tampa Bay over the past ten years or so. Barely scraped us, but trees and power went down. I still remember it like yesterday. What a mess!

Overnight euro has a strong TS/cat1 heading right to Tampa...

Screenshot_20220528-074241_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

Potential Alex into or just graze FL this upcoming weekend?

Looks like that’s becoming increasingly likely. Should be a nice rainmaker.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near 
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple 
of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from 
the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move 
slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the 
northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter 
part of this week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan 
Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin
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My tropical update for the day. I basically see 2 scenarios, either it fights the shear and it's a disorganized mess like the GFS shows, or it links into the jet stream and becomes a powerful sub-tropical-ish system like the ECMWF shows

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12z GFS coming in hot with a legit tropical storm hitting Florida and visible satellite is showing some nice spinnage.  Maybe time to make a new 91L thread?

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27 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

DT just went bonkers for hurricane season based on Euro seasonal forecast. Actually said get vacation insurance late July-September rentals. It’s all on his Facebook page.

Who is DT?

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On 6/4/2022 at 6:12 AM, chubbs said:

Why are Atlantic hurricane seasons becoming more active? Per this study, its roughly a 50/50 split between more favorable weather patterns/ENSO etc. and a warming ocean.

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/471/2022/wcd-3-471-2022.html

atlhurr.png

Another thing you can add to what you mention, is, we name storms now that would not have been named in the past.

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Wondering if anyone has PPV weather to see the GEFS control run.  The op on multiple runs seems to keep anything that would try to develop too close to land to do much, a lot of ensembles again seem more enthusiastic, wondering if this is the perturbed initial conditions or resolution at work.  (AccuWeather had only the Euro control run of the ensembles on PPV ~10 years ago, and on the same ICs, resolution does make a difference).

 

Oh, bargain priced model service?  WxBell had great graphics but I had a new subscriber price which ran out long ago. 

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