2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

44 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

There a brief window of semi-favorable upper forcing next week versus the current blunt trauma across the MDR if the AEW can hold together. We'll see if it can hold together on approach to the Lesser Antilles.

 Highly doubtful imho but never say never since nobody knows and 5 of 8 3rd year cold ENSO analogs had a high impact storm form 9/15-20. Any AEW has the most widespread SAL of the season deep down in the MDR between 35W and 60W (down to 9N!) to get through and the models have kept delaying development day after day. Now the model consensus support for TCG of the AEW near 35W is as weak as it has been since the 12Z 9/4 UKMET run was the first to show it.

 Model consensus is now suggesting no TCG anywhere through at least 9/20. The last year there were no TS+ on the map 9/10-20 was 1966 if you go by UTC and 1939 based on AST!

[yoda]

Last advisory on Earl issued at 5pm... so now we wait... for awhile 

[MattPetrulli]

No point in beating a dead horse and saying it's dead, we know it is. That being said it's quite likely we still get at least a FEW more named storms. Whether it be noteworthy or not who knows, but we're guaranteed at least one or two more named storms (this will bite me in the ass in 2 months lol).  

That being said, Euro/EPS ensembles say watch that wave coming off Africa, some EPS members develop it and it gets to the islands so its something to watch. Also GEFS ensembles say increasingly watch CAG.

 

[GaWx]

 The main purpose of this thread is to promote forecast related general discussion for the Atlantic tropics, active or not. There will almost always be things to talk about in this regard throughout every hurricane season. Even if inactive, there can be good discussions covering things like the likely bearish factors, comparing to past seasons, noting how poor active forecasts from pro mets are going etc. If one isn't interested in forecasting discussions during quiet times, that's fine and understandable but that doesn't mean others who want to discuss it shouldn't. In a way, I find it more of a challenge and thus more interesting in that regard in trying to forecast development when there's nothing out there. In other words, when will it wake up if at all?

 Meanwhile, it is currently about as quiet as can be and the model consensus shows very little. Are we going to have the quietest mid September since at least 1966? That in itself is pretty fascinating to me, especially because none of the pro forecasters that I saw predicted this.
 

 I still expect the FL gulf coast to be threatened as early as late September as per the 8 ENSO analogs I've been following. The 18Z GFS has a hit there, but the long range GFS by itself is pretty useless.

 Here's something that's very rare during peak season: 0Z UKMET 

  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.09.2022


 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP
 IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 144 HOURS

[GaWx]

20 hours ago, Windspeed said:

There a brief window of semi-favorable upper forcing next week versus the current blunt trauma across the MDR if the AEW can hold together. We'll see if it can hold together on approach to the Lesser Antilles.

 Compared to 24 hours ago, this AEW (very weak low now near 10-11 N, 39-40 W) does look a tad more interesting. Actually, at DMAX, it had looked even more interesting but of course the convection has since waned. It seems to have rather compact low level vorticity.

[GaWx]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Compared to 24 hours ago, this AEW (very weak low now near 10-11 N, 39-40 W) does look a tad more interesting. Actually, at DMAX, it had looked even more interesting but of course the convection has since waned. It seems to have rather compact low level vorticity.

Check this out. The UKMET, which was the first model to have this in the 12Z run exactly one week ago and had completely dropped it in the prior four runs ending with 0Z today, just brought this back at 12Z. It has it as a TS moving WNW in the E Caribbean at the end of the run after forming east of the Lesser Antilles at hour 90:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2022

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.7N  53.7W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 15.09.2022   96  17.0N  55.1W     1009            36
    0000UTC 16.09.2022  108  16.3N  57.9W     1008            37
    1200UTC 16.09.2022  120  16.9N  60.0W     1008            38
    0000UTC 17.09.2022  132  16.9N  62.2W     1007            32
    1200UTC 17.09.2022  144  17.6N  64.4W     1006            37

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Posted this in the whining thread, but it could go here as well.  In response to a rando 6Z GFS Florida system past 10 days.

 

Quote

6Z GEFS ensembles are just the random popcorn of systems from the SW Caribbean the GFS has a known issue with.  I have a smidge more faith in the Euro ensembles with storms N of the Greater Antilles that could either fish or impact the SEUSA, but Euro loses enthusiasm with systems the closer it gets to go time.  Euro ensembles at 10 days N of the G Antilles could be the vorticity approaching Florida on the op. Euro  But I wouldn't be surprised if there was no tropical development in the ATL through the Equinox.  Random Danielle type high latitude sub-tropical formation off an old frontal system, who knows.?.

 

[GaWx]

 IF this AEW near 40W were to turn out to be a sleeper and actually become a TC in the MDR on September 15th near 54W as the 12Z UKMET has, it would be very similar in terms of location and date to the geneses of what turned out to be big impact storms in three of the eight 3rd year cold ENSO analogs fwiw:

- 1975: Eloise formed 9/13 near 54W, was the first TS in the MDR that season, and had the biggest impact of any TC that year:

- 1917: #4 formed 9/20 near 57W and was the first MDR storm in 3 weeks. This also had the biggest impact of any TC that season:

 

- 1894: #4 formed 9/18 near 51W and was the first MDR storm in nearly 3 weeks. This was among the highest impact storms of the season:

 

 

[ldub23]

Not the  best  look for  a  memorable  October. Maybe the wheel will show  up.

 

 

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Not the  best  look for  a  memorable  October. Maybe the wheel will show  up.

 

 

Loving the 540 line showing up

[GaWx]

 Now we can add the 12Z JMA to the 12Z UKMET with a TC from this. I know the model sucks overall, but a JMA 168 is far better than a GFS 384 and it is fwiw the first JMA run to ever have a TC from this AEW. This shows a strengthening TD moving slowly NW in the NE Caribbean. This leads to as much 4" of rainfall in the far NE Caribbean..so this isn't just a weak low on here:
 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Not the  best  look for  a  memorable  October. Maybe the wheel will show  up.

 

 

The famous hour 384 GFS.  Valid September 27th.  CONUS centered.  If anything proves a slow October, that isn't it.

[GaWx]

The 12Z EPS is suddenly MUCH more active with this (the AEW near 40W)! This is the most active EPS with this in days and is one of the most active with it yet! I count 12 hurricanes amongst the 51 members. So, that means that at 12Z that the UKMET, JMA, and the EPS are much more active with this and the strongest with this in days (and ever for the JMA).

 Maybe this is going to be a sleeper after all?

Edit:  A new convection tower is popping as the sun sets (so still not far after DMIN) near 11N, 40.5W, which may be near the strongest vorticity/weak surface low. Lets see whether or not this expands into DMAX later tonight.

Edit: I count nearly 20 hurricanes among the 51 members (~40%) later in the run with some really scary runs for the SE US 9/22-26. This has to be one of the most threatening EPS runs for the SE this season to date! I count 7 hurricane hits on the SE (1 FL, 1 GA, 2 SC, 3 NC). In addition, I see 2 direct hits on New England. Yikes, hoping this is just a scary tease!

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Now we can add the 12Z JMA to the 12Z UKMET with a TC from this. I know the model sucks overall, but a JMA 168 is far better than a GFS 384 and it is fwiw the first JMA run to ever have a TC from this AEW. This shows a strengthening TD moving slowly NW in the NE Caribbean. This leads to as much 4" of rainfall in the far NE Caribbean..so this isn't just a weak low on here:
 

 

If anything is there  in 7 days the  Euro shows an awesome  pattern.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022091112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

[A-L-E-K]

what a bust of a season

[GaWx]

 Regarding the AEW near 40W, the 0Z UKMET dropped it again, but the 12Z just brought it back once more only to have it dissipate in the NE Caribbean while it is moving WNW as it runs into Hispaniola:

 

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.6N  54.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 15.09.2022   72  16.5N  55.7W     1011            28
    0000UTC 16.09.2022   84  16.6N  58.8W     1009            31
    1200UTC 16.09.2022   96  17.0N  61.6W     1009            32
    0000UTC 17.09.2022  108  17.1N  64.4W     1008            30
    1200UTC 17.09.2022  120  17.5N  67.3W     1008            28
    0000UTC 18.09.2022  132              CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

Regarding this same AEW now near 40W: I don't know if it is drunk, but 12Z GEFS fwiw is for some reason by far the most active run since 5 days ago with 5 of 31 members as hurricanes near and just east of the SE Bahamas on Sept 19th. There's not much development til Sept 16th after passing 55W near and just east of the Leewards. By Sept 21st, 8 members are hurricanes and 2 are each a TS.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Regarding this same AEW now near 40W: I don't know if it is drunk, but 12Z GEFS fwiw is for some reason by far the most active run since 5 days ago with 5 of 31 members as hurricanes near and just east of the SE Bahamas on Sept 19th. There's not much development til Sept 16th after passing 55W near and just east of the Leewards.

GEFS are rather enthusiastic for an EPac system near Central America, which almost by definition means the Gulf and Caribbean will stay dead.  There is a 5 day cherry off Mexico now...

[ldub23]

For  some reason i cant  get the Euro to go past  192 but  its a  bit  better  in the  bahamas region. Shows pressures  lowering  more than before with a  nice ridge to the  north. For Sept  its  not  much, but  its all we got, lol.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022091212/slp8.png

[GaWx]

 12Z Euro 216 has a scary setup for the SE US with TCG from this same AEW that is now near 40W on days 8-9 Bahamas and a strong high to its north. It then moves very slowly closer to S FL but still in the Bahamas at 240 as the blocking high starts to weaken some in response to an upper MW trough.

 It appears to me that regardless of the final outcome, this is likely going to be a long drawn out situation due to projected very slow movement of this AEW/weak steering currents. We could easily be dealing with this for the better part of two weeks.

 
 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z JMA fwiw (I know it isn't a good model) is the 2nd run with a TC from this 40W AEW after the similarly tracking TC that was on the 12Z yesterday. Today's gives the Virgin Islands to PR 6-7" of rainfall due to slow movement of it as a strengthening TD. The 192 has a strengthening TS just east of the SE Bahamas turning north. It is hard to tell if this would have continued much further north because there's a new upper high then starting to build along the east US coast to its north in response to a strong digging NW US trough. My guess is that this new high would have at least slowed it down and possibly turned it back NW to WNW for a period of time:

 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z EPS is another busy run. Climo for 9/22 for members east of the Bahamas would favor recurve and that's what they mostly do here. But there are also many members either within the Bahamas (some recurve and some don't; some actually turn left and are hard to assess) or near Cuba (no recurves).

[CheeselandSkies]

10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

what a bust of a season

Said Brent Musburger to Dan Fouts in The Waterboy:

"We know, we know." (Can't find a YouTube clip of it that's not cut off and/or somebody shooting their TV screen with their phone)

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z EPS is another busy run. Climo for 9/22 for members east of the Bahamas would favor recurve and that's what they mostly do here. But there are also many members either within the Bahamas (some recurve and some don't; some actually turn left and are hard to assess) or near Cuba (no recurves).

 That post was based on just hour 240.

 Going to end of 12Z EPS (360) as regards the CONUS, it is active Sept 21-26 with 9 H landfalls: 1 on NYC, 3 on SC, 4 on FL (Cape Canaveral, Keys, Tampa, E Panhandle), and 1 on MS.

 So, a US hit from the Gulf could very much be in play here, especially if there's a delay in development. I continue to have the Gulf coast of FL as the highest seasonal risk area based on 8 ENSO analogs.

 Edit: The 18Z GFS has the Gulf at risk from this as it is very slow to develop it.

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 That post was based on just hour 240.

 Going to end of 12Z EPS (360) as regards the CONUS, it is active Sept 21-26 with 9 H landfalls: 1 on NYC, 3 on SC, 4 on FL (Cape Canaveral, Keys, Tampa, E Panhandle), and 1 on MS.

 So, a US hit from the Gulf could very much be in play here, especially if there's a delay in development. I continue to have the Gulf coast of FL as the highest seasonal risk area based on 8 ENSO analogs.

 

Do you have links to these runs?

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Do you have links to these runs?

Mike,

 I just look at the individual members on Tropical Tidbits and see where they go.

[etudiant]

It seems some essential piece of understanding is missing.

Based on the results thus far this year and the ongoing discussions, no one has a solid handle on hurricane formation. 

Are there any research papers that might help improve our understanding and skill?

[Floydbuster]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Mike,

 I just look at the individual members on Tropical Tidbits and see where they go.

I never could find the link to that. I always just see the full EPS run with no individual members. 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I never could find the link to that. I always just see the full EPS run with no individual members. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=atl&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2022091212&fh=12

[WxWatcher007]

I’m lukewarm on that wave, but it has been more convectively active today.