2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Windspeed]

None  of  us are  here for  sunny pleasant weather.

Then leave? We can handle the dead season and take it from here.

[MJO812]

Not shocking that the GFS lost the big gulf storm 

[SnowenOutThere]

23 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

30 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I agree most hurricanes seasons do end after the 15th of September 

lol busting out the sock now eh?

Dude sarcasm 

[Windspeed]

Dude sarcasm 

Sarcasm aside, it's going to get active. No need to throw in the towel prior to peak. I'm down for a bunch of storms without them hitting the CONUS anyway and perhaps that will play out. Interesting to track minus the devastation we've experienced in recent years. And if it plays out that 2022 is a huge bust and the season remains silent, so be it. It's been a crazy stretch of years.

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS develops 91L as it recurves then has a short lived TS about the same time from a vigorous AEW that dies out in very hostile conditions north of the MDR. Euro doesn’t even develop thus wave. GFS is then suspiciously dead through the end of the run. Ensemble support through this period has really decreased for both GEFS and EPS. It kind of looks like it’s a 91L show then we go back to the doldrums… This is not a switch flipping period in the basin, but a one show pony at least for the next 10 days as I see it

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS develops 91L as it recurves then has a short lived TS about the same time from a vigorous AEW that dies out in very hostile conditions north of the MDR. Euro doesn’t even develop thus wave. GFS is then suspiciously dead through the end of the run. Ensemble support through this period has really decreased for both GEFS and EPS. It kind of looks like it’s a 91L show then we go back to the doldrums… This is not a switch flipping period in the basin, but a one show pony at least for the next 10 days as I see it

Often times in this era of climate change persistence has won out. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Often times in this era of climate change persistence has won out. 

Very true. Patterns like to lock in and stay. We are experiencing that in the NYC area with a pretty serious drought that keeps intensifying.


.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Very true. Patterns like to lock in and stay. We are experiencing that in the NYC area with a pretty serious drought that keeps intensifying.


.

Yep we need the rain

Grass has turned brown

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Not shocking that the GFS lost the big gulf storm 

It was good for almost a week of Lemon.  A single model with a known bias.

[ldub23]

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS develops 91L as it recurves then has a short lived TS about the same time from a vigorous AEW that dies out in very hostile conditions north of the MDR. Euro doesn’t even develop thus wave. GFS is then suspiciously dead through the end of the run. Ensemble support through this period has really decreased for both GEFS and EPS. It kind of looks like it’s a 91L show then we go back to the doldrums… This is not a switch flipping period in the basin, but a one show pony at least for the next 10 days as I see it

Suspiciously  dead? Its  been that way all season. Im posting this  not  because  of  91L which is  very weak on the Euro, not  that  i care at this  point, but to show as i was saying there  is  squat behind  possible  Dani. Whenever  i hear  people  talking about  how things  have suddenly  become favorable  in the Sahara the first thing  i do is  look behind whatever  is supposed to develop. If the pattern has flipped then we are going to see many lows with good  prospects to develop, especially at  peak in a  season that was supposed to be hyperactive. We dont. There  is  bone dry air  just like all season. I feel sorry  for  JB because  he really wants to have a hurricane season like  i do. There  is a non tropical low(typical of  an ultra dead season) that might be a  nothing and go nowhere well east  of  NJ.  Im not  counting  on an active Sept and  im sure  not expecting  many threats to the  US like the experts said. They said we would  have a  locked  in high  over the NW ATL. I said we would have a  locked  in trof  in the west ATL. Anyway, here  is the  12Z euro with Jack Squat behind  91L. I cant  imagine a  more  pitiful map for  peak. 

 

 

This  map gives us an idea  of the  ultra super whopper  high pressures  in the tropical ATL after  91L

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

And finally  i am very  much aware the season doesnt  supposedly  end on 15 sept. But really, did  it  ever  begin? Here  we  have  on the GFS MR WINTER(winter  pattern anyway) making a  wonderful cool dry appearance. And remember the experts were saying at  peak high pressure was going to dominate the west atl and steer  things  ominously  close to the  coast.

 

 

******And there you are.

 

11/7/3 next season with a few real storms to track

150% of  normal snow from RIC-BOS this  winter.

****And there you are.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Suspiciously  dead? Its  been that way all season. Im posting this  not  because  of  91L which is  very weak on the Euro, not  that  i care at this  point, but to show as i was saying there  is  squat behind  possible  Dani. Whenever  i hear  people  talking about  how things  have suddenly  become favorable  in the Sahara the first thing  i do is  look behind whatever  is supposed to develop. If the pattern has flipped then we are going to see many lows with good  prospects to develop, especially at  peak in a  season that was supposed to be hyperactive. We dont. There  is  bone dry air  just like all season. I feel sorry  for  JB because  he really wants to have a hurricane season like  i do. There  is a non tropical low(typical of  an ultra dead season) that might be a  nothing and go nowhere well east  of  NJ.  Im not  counting  on an active Sept and  im sure  not expecting  many threats to the  US like the experts said. They said we would  have a  locked  in high  over the NW ATL. I said we would have a  locked  in trof  in the west ATL. Anyway, here  is the  12Z euro with Jack Squat behind  91L. I cant  imagine a  more  pitiful map for  peak. 

 

 

This  map gives us an idea  of the  ultra super whopper  high pressures  in the tropical ATL after  91L

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

And finally  i am very  much aware the season doesnt  supposedly  end on 15 sept. But really, did  it  ever  begin? Here  we  have  on the GFS MR WINTER(winter  pattern anyway) making a  wonderful cool dry appearance. And remember the experts were saying at  peak high pressure was going to dominate the west atl and steer  things  ominously  close to the  coast.

 

 

******And there you are.

 

11/7/3 next season with a few real storms to track

150% of  normal snow from RIC-BOS this  winter.

****And there you are.

If you always pick a season below seasonal expectations or below normal, you are eventually correct. Neither Euro nor GFS ensembles are dead at 10 days, although they do suggest fishes.

[WxWatcher007]

I’m not worried about my 10/6/4 forecast…yet…  

[NorthHillsWx]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not worried about my 10/6/4 forecast…yet…  

Very slim margin for error! In all honesty, this season may struggle to produce 10 NS, it is that hostile and there are currently no signs of that changing. 91L seemed like a lock for a hurricane but even that is in question now. We are burning through peak season now with long range ensembles seemingly looking less and less threatening in terms of storm development and we’ve seen a huge decrease on the Ops as well. This first week of September just a few days ago looked like it was about to explode. Now we have an invest that is going to continue to struggle for some time and really nothing behind it

[WxWatcher007]

46 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Very slim margin for error! In all honesty, this season may struggle to produce 10 NS, it is that hostile and there are currently no signs of that changing. 91L seemed like a lock for a hurricane but even that is in question now. We are burning through peak season now with long range ensembles seemingly looking less and less threatening in terms of storm development and we’ve seen a huge decrease on the Ops as well. This first week of September just a few days ago looked like it was about to explode. Now we have an invest that is going to continue to struggle for some time and really nothing behind it

I still have hope I’m not going down in flames!

It’s only August…it’s only August…it’s…only…  

[WxWatcher007]

Really incredible rapid intensification from 91…oh wait, sorry, this is the other side of the globe.

 

[Amped]

Today's 12z Euro was disappointing. for the entire basin. Hopefully it's wrong.

[GaWx]

 There are 8 3rd year cold ENSO analogs that I've identified.

 As of 8/29, here are the four of these 8 analogs with lowest ACE:

- 1874: 3 storms (1 H and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 12; full season ACE 47; remaining 5 storms included 3 Hs, 2 with high impact (Bermuda, FL Big Bend, GA/SC/NC coasts, Jamaica)

- 1956: 4 storms (1 MH, 1 H, and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 32; full season ACE 54; remaining storms 8 including 2 Hs, one with high impact (FL Panhandle)

- 1917: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 6; full season ACE 61; remaining two storms were MHs, one of which had high impact (Jamaica, W Cuba, FL Panhandle)

- 1910: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 1; full season ACE 64....remaining three storms were Hs (one MH), two of which had high impact (Greater Antilles, SW FL, S TX)

 So, ACEwise as of 8/29, 2022's mere 3 is most similar to 1910 and 1917 of these ENSO analogs.

 Note that the Gulf coast of FL was hit all four seasons by a H: 9/24 (H), 9/27 (H), 9/28 (MH), 10/17 (MH)

 Regarding the other four 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, here was the impact on Gulf coast of FL: 9/2 (H), 9/17 (TS), 9/22 (TS), 9/25 (H), 10/8 (H), 10/23 (MH), 11/21 (H)

 Thus, I continue to feel that the Gulf coast of FL has an above normal threat this season and the highest threat of any land area. The lack of activity to this point is pretty much irrelevant as one can see by the dates the Gulf coast of FL was hit.

 Source of ENSO data is Eric Webb:   https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 There are 8 3rd year cold ENSO analogs that I've identified.

 As of 8/29, here are the four of these 8 analogs with lowest ACE:

- 1874: 3 storms (1 H and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 12; full season ACE 47; remaining 5 storms included 3 Hs, 2 with high impact (Bermuda, FL Big Bend, GA/SC/NC coasts, Jamaica)

- 1956: 4 storms (1 MH, 1 H, and 2 TS); rough guess of ACE 32; full season ACE 54; remaining storms 8 including 2 Hs, one with high impact (FL Panhandle)

- 1917: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 6; full season ACE 61; remaining two storms were MHs, one of which had high impact (Jamaica, W Cuba, FL Panhandle)

- 1910: 2 storms (2 TS); rough guess of ACE 1; full season ACE 64....remaining three storms were Hs (one MH), two of which had high impact (Greater Antilles, SW FL, S TX)

 So, ACEwise as of 8/29, 2022's mere 3 is most similar to 1910 and 1917 of these ENSO analogs.

 Note that the Gulf coast of FL was hit all four seasons by a H: 9/24 (H), 9/27 (H), 9/28 (MH), 10/17 (MH)

 Regarding the other four 3rd year cold ENSO analogs, here was the impact on Gulf coast of FL: 9/2 (H), 9/17 (TS), 9/22 (TS), 9/25 (H), 10/8 (H), 10/23 (MH), 11/21 (H)

 Thus, I continue to feel that the Gulf coast of FL has an above normal threat this season and the highest threat of any land area. The lack of activity to this point is pretty much irrelevant as one can see by the dates the Gulf coast of FL was hit.

 Source of ENSO data is Eric Webb:   https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Really loving these historical look backs. Thanks. 

[Great Snow 1717]

17 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

If you always pick a season below seasonal expectations or below normal, you are eventually correct. Neither Euro nor GFS ensembles are dead at 10 days, although they do suggest fishes.

Same applies to individuals who always predict an active Atlantic season and/or a cold and snowy winter for the northeast. Eventually the forecast pans out and their followers claim how good of a forecaster the person is

[Great Snow 1717]

Weather Blog - Quietest start to hurricane season in over 30 years (kshb.com)

[Windspeed]

One thing is for certain, whatever pattern evolves in place for the remainder of the Atantic hurricane season and Western Hemisphere, the ongoing La Niña is going to be one of the strongest well into the Winter months.

[Seminole]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

One thing is for certain, whatever pattern evolves in place for the remainder of the Atantic hurricane season and Western Hemisphere, the ongoing La Nina is going to be one of the strongest well into the Winter months.

 A 4th year in the row of La Nina?  Has that ever happened? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

One thing is for certain, whatever pattern evolves in place for the remainder of the Atantic hurricane season and Western Hemisphere, the ongoing La Niña is going to be one of the strongest well into the Winter months.

One of the strongest la ninas in history?

I don't agree with that at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

 A 4th year in the row of La Nina?  Has that ever happened? 

No chance we have another la nina next season.

[ldub23]

JB comes to the rescue. No commentary  from me except  i hope  he  is right and we still can salvage some  kind  of season.

 

 

[cptcatz]

50 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB comes to the rescue. No commentary  from me except  i hope  he  is right and we still can salvage some  kind  of season.

 

 

Yeah we're still over a month away from the Wilma-Matthew-Michael-Sandy tracks.  No reason to think we can't get one or more of those tracked storms.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

IMBY-ism  While warm ENSO winters are cooler and wetter than usual in Texas, the severe outbreaks, a day or more below freezing to the Gulf Coast, almost always happen in a cool ENSO winter, even if the seasonal mean is warmer.  Or a warm ENSO is my yard's friend

 

JB post- I see why the Atlantic MDR is so hostile, but the only reason the Caribbean and Gulf are dead now is there is no meaningful wave to start spinning up  Moisture and shear look fine.  The GFS phantom storm that finally disappeared would have been in great conditions except there was no pre-existing vorticity.  Or Florida stays in the game for weeks.  October still makes at least one Caribbean/Gulf major, unless something else is going on.  

[Great Snow 1717]

4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

One thing is for certain, whatever pattern evolves in place for the remainder of the Atantic hurricane season and Western Hemisphere, the ongoing La Niña is going to be one of the strongest well into the Winter months.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if that happens.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, Seminole said:

 A 4th year in the row of La Nina?  Has that ever happened? 

Good question. Going back to 1850 using Eric Webb's ONI chart, it didn't. However, I was able to find a 4 year period of cold ENSO, 1872-5 with 1875 at cold neutral. So, 1875 is the closest to it. Most cases of 3rd year La Nina went to El Nino the next year.

[WxWatcher007]

Hey @GaWx what do you know about 1961? That was apparently a big backloaded season.