2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[WxWatcher007]

52 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s definitely made for a photo finish to the month. Half the board wants it so one poster can be proven wrong, half the board wants to keep the shutout through the day. Get your popcorn ready 

I’m team August shutout. I’ve waited this long for something to pull it together. Might as well wait another day and make history.

[Maxwell03]

I am hesitant to speak in absolutes when the UTC calendar still says August, but it looks like a lock. 

[ldub23]

Since when is a TD a named storm? From now  its  0/0/0/0? LOL. Even if something gets called a storm i still win compared to others who said august  would  be sideways, fast and furious watch and  CSU'S 20/10/5. Aug would  have  to be rather active for that to verify. And  some  on here were rather  bullish for Aug. Its all good though im still hoping we can salvage a  1 storm season.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Of those, 1988 had Gilbert, 2001 Michelle, and 2002 Isidore. Can't think of any others off the top of my head. So I guess those are effectively "one storm seasons" if you're looking at only high-impact majors. 2001 though did end up with nine hurricanes including four majors, so there's definitely still life left in the season. Although, if you're looking for a definitive "switch flip" within the next week or so, you'd like to see a more consistent signal from the models. Already appears as though they oversold 91L's potential early on, who's to say the next "modelcane" or two, or three that pop up won't go the same way?

[NorthHillsWx]

@ldub23 Congrats on getting August correct. I know many people had some of your posts from late July/early August saved to deploy when August went sideways. It did not. You certainly have a history of downplaying very active seasons and looking the other way when you’re wrong, some call it trolling, but you were correct this month. Enjoy the limelight. 
 

Also, you may be a professional troll, I don’t know the intent and I don’t care about the spirit of your posts, but you do an excellent job of keeping this board active when the tropics are dead. So thanks for that 

[Floydbuster]

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Of those, 1988 had Gilbert, 2001 Michelle, and 2002 Isidore. Can't think of any others off the top of my head. So I guess those are effectively "one storm seasons" if you're looking at only high-impact majors. 2001 though did end up with nine hurricanes including four majors, so there's definitely still life left in the season. Although, if you're looking for a definitive "switch flip" within the next week or so, you'd like to see a more consistent signal from the models. Already appears as though they oversold 91L's potential early on, who's to say the next "modelcane" or two, or three that pop up won't go the same way?

1988 also had Hurricane Joan, a Cat 4 into Nicaragua in October, 2001 had Hurricane Iris strike Belize as a devastating Cat 4 in October, and 2002 gave us Cat 4 Lili which struck Louisiana as a minimal hurricane in October. I always think of those seasons as "two storm seasons". Gilbert/Joan, Iris/Michelle, Isidore/Lili.

That tells me we will likely have October or even November hurricanes this year.

[Great Snow 1717]

Has anyone heard from "Sideways" DT??

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Has anyone heard from "Sideways" DT??

Lol. Looking at long range, the MDR looks to remain remarkably quiet. It would take a frantic second half of September and October to even approach normal season activity, we’ve fallen that far behind. Our first hurricane will come from a mid-latitude system in September. Doubt DT and many of the others hyping August thought we’d be saying that a month ago 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Lol. Looking at long range, the MDR looks to remain remarkably quiet. It would take a frantic second half of September and October to even approach normal season activity, we’ve fallen that far behind. Our first hurricane will come from a mid-latitude system in September. Doubt DT and many of the others hyping August thought we’d be saying that a month ago 

I can't tell you how badly I feel about DT busting so badly...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

  I didn't expect a slow season, but saw with everyone going big numbers, my best chance of winning was going low.  I went something like 10/4/2 (give or take), I think betting the under will pay off.  I still think October will have 2 majors.

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

  I didn't expect a slow season, but saw with everyone going big numbers, my best chance of winning was going low.  I went something like 10/4/2 (give or take), I think betting the under will pay off.  I still think October will have 2 majors.

I remember laughing at your prediction (in a friendly way lol) but then thinking “Imagine he’s right? What a coup that would be.” And here we are, with a 4/0/0 season so far. I had 21/9/4 and at this point I’m thinking there’s a better chance Long Island gets hit by a Cat 4 this year than that happening

[NorthHillsWx]

14 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I remember laughing at your prediction (in a friendly way lol) but then thinking “Imagine he’s right? What a coup that would be.” And here we are, with a 4/0/0 season so far. I had 21/9/4 and at this point I’m thinking there’s a better chance Long Island gets hit by a Cat 4 this year than that happening

I am just going to say I was wrong. I went with something like 23/9/3 thinking a bunch of worthless swirls would get named. I forgot that there are in fact seasons that don’t even feature worthless swirls to name 

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Has anyone heard from "Sideways" DT??

He  may have  meant  Aug  2023. Some  interesting things to think about this  hurricane season. We  have always  been told that warmer than normal SST's  in the NW ATL would cause  high pressure to lock in there and  make the  overall pattern favorable  for hurricane  hits. As  usual even with well above  normal SST's low  pressure  locked  in. Not  only that but  now we are  being told the above  normal SST's are part  of the reason for  the  slow  season. Also, it was supposed to be favorable  for the subtropics to be  cooler than normal but we are  now  being told thats  unfavorable as well. Anyway, still hoping for  a  1 storm season. Maybe the euro will come  in shortly and say, "i agree with you  CMC"

[CheeselandSkies]

RE: My post from 8/10, McCroskey is still huffing the glue with no sign of slowing down. 100% thought we'd have been/be tracking multiple MH or least strong, consistent, multi-model consensus signals of such by now when I made that.

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

He  may have  meant  Aug  2023. Some  interesting things to think about this  hurricane season. We  have always  been told that warmer than normal SST's  in the NW ATL would cause  high pressure to lock in there and  make the  overall pattern favorable  for hurricane  hits. As  usual even with well above  normal SST's low  pressure  locked  in. Not  only that but  now we are  being told the above  normal SST's are part  of the reason for  the  slow  season. Also, it was supposed to be favorable  for the subtropics to be  cooler than normal but we are  now  being told thats  unfavorable as well. Anyway, still hoping for  a  1 storm season. Maybe the euro will come  in shortly and say, "i agree with you  CMC"

Bruh you are a trip and I love it  

Normally a warm tropical Atlantic and cool subtropics are a great combination for instability and tropical activity, but the North Atlantic became a furnace. This stuff is so much more than warm=good and cold=bad. 

 

[ldub23]

39 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Bruh you are a trip and I love it  

Normally a warm tropical Atlantic and cool subtropics are a great combination for instability and tropical activity, but the North Atlantic became a furnace. This stuff is so much more than warm=good and cold=bad. 

 

Let  me add to that the Euro came  in and said, "CMC, YOU  MAKE ALOT  OF SENSE"

That  being said 91L  is  on the struggle  bus  big time.

 

Here is the  12Z Euro. It would still likely  recurve but  its alot  closer than it was. That  is a  very  interesting  pattern the Euro is showing for the east  coast.

If  i were drawing a  pattern for  an east  coast hit it would  be  quite  similar to this.

 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Let  me add to that the Euro came  in and said, "CMC, YOU  MAKE ALOT  OF SENSE"

That  being said 91L  is  on the struggle  bus  big time.

 

Here is the  12Z Euro. It would still likely  recurve but  its alot  closer than it was. That  is a  very  interesting  pattern the Euro is showing for the east  coast.

 

I’m still very skeptical 91L can pull it together.

The MDR has been a disaster. I’ve kept saying it’s getting better but our current tire fire isn’t much better than what we had in July. 

That said, if I can get a couple on the board before September 10 I’ll feel better about my peak season forecast. That’s all that matters now to me.  

[GaWx]

 Per the last few EPS runs and other ensemble runs, an AEW coming off Africa near 9/6 may be one the US would need to worry about based on low latitude of a good portion of members and moving quite far west within the MDR through 9/11, but that would'nt be til ~9/18 or later.

[StruThiO]

Danielle set to become stronger than any system during 2013 and will contribute a decent bit of ACE.

[Floydbuster]

 

 

I think 91L needs closer watching.

[Maxwell03]

3 hours ago, StruThiO said:

Danielle set to become stronger than any system during 2013 and will contribute a decent bit of ACE.

The bar is on the floor. 

[Prismshine Productions]

0z GEFS ensembles ticked west again...

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[ldub23]

Looks  like  not  much after  91L. Still think the season ends early with a Greenland storm the  best  one  of the season.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Looks  like  not  much after  91L. Still think the season ends early with a Greenland storm the  best  one  of the season.

It's September 2

[WxWatcher007]

On the board!

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (1)
Hurricanes: 6 (1)
Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

[MattPetrulli]

14 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

 

 

I think 91L needs closer watching.

Agreed, I think the obvious thing is weaker= more west. Next 24-48 hours of organization will truly determine 91L's fate, as the weaker models go more west and stronger ones go north. A good example is demonstrated by GEFS ensembles 

[StantonParkHoya]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It's September 2

Which is the absolute peak of the season. Ensembles not showing much through the middle of the month. Once September ends, you’ve got autumn troughs picking up and less landfall threat.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Which is the absolute peak of the season. Ensembles not showing much through the middle of the month. Once September ends, you’ve got autumn troughs picking up and less landfall threat.

About 30% of Euro ensembles show something coming off Africa at fairly low latitude at the season peak, although its suggests anything strong goes fishing.

[WxWatcher007]

Well keep in mind that climo shifts tropical genesis to the Gulf and western Caribbean too later in September and especially October. 

 

I think we know that reaching normal ACE or above active named storms will be a struggle given the hostile environment basin wide, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the later part of the season is destined to be dead too. Especially if AWB relaxes. 

It’s just something we’ll have to watch unfold.