Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM is literally 24-36” here… what more are people expecting?

LOL again with this.

SE MA has been locked in for days and days. Yes, it looks great there. Yes, it appears that the models are not shifting at all from inside that zone.

But outside that little bubble, there have been huge swings the last 48 hours. NAM just cut way back on precip in several areas.

It's not that hard to figure out why people are still worried about aspects of the storm. SE MA guys should just log off and gas up their snowblowers at this point.

[Massplow]

What is the start and end time look like for accumulating snow in the Boston area. Been busy getting everything ready havnt had much time to follow along

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, dan11295 said:

Current BOX snowfall forecast looks like a 10:1 of the 6z GFS. Certainly on the conservative size and we know the GFS has been trash with this storm so far. From the past i know BOX really does not like to forecast numbers >24" prior to start of storm start and certainly not 24 hours out.

In principle I agree.  They "seem" ( I do not intend to impugn NWS with this statement ) to be weighting conservatively; I have not read their AFD so won't speculate on there philosophy for doing so.. 

But, I believe this system has an above medium potential to verify blizzard from ASH-PVD, and points east. In addition, I also feel ( much to the delight of intents and purpose consensus haha) their snow forecast might be too gradated from E to W across the region of SNE.  I don't have a problem with 18-24... but 10" at HFD looks heh -

It is too possible that mid and U/A jet coupling,

... blossoms snows farther W than guidance, where there is likely to be > 15:1 ratios - I'm brave though and don't care if I f-up LOL... no seriously, I don't have an reservations about going higher say HFD-EEN.  I see a moderate snow field spreading/fanning W -N to perhaps the Capital District, with some modest banding/meso enhancing striations there W of HFD arcing to Brians, and that may last 6 hours at nearing 2"/hr

[weatherwiz]

At this point can probably tone away from the models for a bit and just nowcast down across the Southeast and see what happens with the current low and then where the developing low pops and compare that to what models have shown.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 @RUNNAWAYICEBERGthanking that lol

Like, don't even nibble on them. Just inhale the whole pack and be on the floor in 45minutes singing to yourself the "everything is awesome" song.

[hawkeye_wx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, anyway....sweating a floor of 15" is a first world weenie problem to be sure.

15" would easily be the biggest snowstorm in my lifetime.  It's difficult just to get 10" here.

[JC-CT]

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

15" would easily be the biggest snowstorm in my lifetime.  It's difficult just to get 10" here.

I'm guessing, though, when it does snow that you worry much less about taint than we do

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I just over analyzed the NAM.

I mean that is a serious cut back across the entire forum but JUST THE NAM AND ONLY ONE RUN.

Nice storm still. Hopefully next run is back to HISTORIC.

No I am not looking at Kutchera.

Didn't really cut back east of ORH.....certainly lowers ceiling, sure.

[klw]

Just for fun I looked at the SREF Plumes.  Range for my closest spot is 0 to 37.41 with a mean of 15.5.  Very SREF.

[Patrick-02540]

Nice little blossom of light snow here in western CT.  Unrelated, I guess?

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In principle I agree.  They "seem" ( I do not intend to impugn NWS with this statement ) to be weighting conservatively; I have not read their AFD so won't speculate on there philosophy for doing so.. 

But, I believe this system has an above medium potential to verify blizzard from ASH-PVD, and points east. In addition, I also feel ( much to the delight of intents and purpose consensus haha) their snow forecast might be too gradated from E to W across the region of SNE.  I don't have a problem with 18-24... but 10" at HFD looks heh -

It is too possible that mid and U/A jet coupling,

... blossoms snows farther W than guidance, where there is likely to be > 15:1 ratios - I'm brave though and don't care if I f-up LOL... no seriously, I don't have an reservations about going higher say HFD-EEN.  I see a moderate snow field spreading/fanning W -N to perhaps the Capital District, with some modest banding/meso enhancing striations there W of HFD arcing to Brians, and that may last 6 hours at nearing 2"/hr

Totally agree...they forecast to not get burned, rather than be right, if that makes sense...

[Torch Tiger]

for those riding the "no trend NAM"

 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I do that to myself too, then I chew...and relax. But euro has tickled east at H7 some though, which was expected, but you're in a good spot. Thinking 8 is the floor here and 16 ceiling.  

From where we were a few days ago, anyting in the double digits is exciting. With that said, I'm not going to be too concerned today with small fluctuations. If you look at the name, there's room in there for it to still go back what it was last night oh, he's our little nuances that will happen now since we're so close with that said, I'm just west of Hartford by 9 miles oh, so I'm going to stick with being between 15 and 20 in. With that said, if we get stuck under one of those crazy bands, it could be quite a bit more even where you are. That is still an absolute possibility. So I would just say sit back relax and enjoy this awesome shower about to get

[EastonSN+]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Didn't really cut back east of ORH.....certainly lowers ceiling, sure.

Yeah I agree I should have caveated eastern areas.

Its amazing how razor thin the difference between a total forum historic storm and an Eastern area historic storm is. 

Me personally I want Philly and DC to get a heavy amounts too in order to get this on the NESIS scale which I think is population based.

This may not be decided till the storm starts.

[shawnmov]

New blizzard warnings up by NWS Boston

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

From where we were a few days ago, anyting in the double digits is exciting. With that said, I'm not going to be too concerned today with small fluctuations. If you look at the name, there's room in there for it to still go back what it was last night oh, he's our little nuances that will happen now since we're so close with that said, I'm just west of Hartford by 9 miles oh, so I'm going to stick with being between 15 and 20 in. With that said, if we get stuck under one of those crazy bands, it could be quite a bit more even where you are. That is still an absolute possibility. So I would just say sit back relax and enjoy this awesome shower about to get

Agree. I have you, wolfie, and the CCT crew with 16-20. Hope it breaks right for your weenies. 

[MRVexpat]

12 minutes ago, Massplow said:

What is the start and end time look like for accumulating snow in the Boston area. Been busy getting everything ready havnt had much time to follow along

Also curious. 

[PowderBeard]

However, still too early to say exactly where these mesoscale bands set up,
usually just to the NW of the mid level low or mid level bent back
warm front. It`s possible this heavy band of snow may pivot as far
west as eastern CT/RI into the Worcester Hills. SLR in this band
will likely be on the order of 15-20 to 1, given strong forcing in
the snow growth region.

Someone will hit 30".

[JC-CT]

14 minutes ago, Massplow said:

What is the start and end time look like for accumulating snow in the Boston area. Been busy getting everything ready havnt had much time to follow along

 

2 minutes ago, MRVexpat said:

Also curious. 

they have this on the nws boston page, although currently it looks like they may be in the process of updating maps

[40/70 Benchmark]

Over the entire forecast lifecycle of this event, the most consistent piece of guidance has been the euro....sure, it has generally been congruent with the consensus trend, but with greater run-to run consistency, which is to say that ALL other guidance has been more malleable to these synoptic scale and even meso scale nuances. This means that the other guidance is m ore prone to wild fluctuations, which has been evinced by the behavior of the NAM, GEM, GFS, UK...EVERYTHING. That to me is indicative of guidance that is less equipped to proficiently resolve said nuances in order to yield a more viable solution, thus said output is less viable. The European model has continued to reflect toned down changes that are consistent with coherent signals reflected by the balance of model consensus, and I think we are seeing that one last time here at the 11th hour. We just saw the EURO tone down a slight amount in overall intensity, but not to the drastic degree that the NAM did.

Sound familair?

It should-

[PhineasC]

Let's get some more models posted to wash out the taste of NAM from our mouths.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Let's get some more models posted to wash out the taste of NAM from our mouths.

honestly the NAM probably is fine now

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Over the entire forecast lifecycle of this event, the most consistent piece of guidance has been the euro....sure, it has generally been congruent with the consensus trend, but with greater run-to run consistency, which is to say that ALL other guidance has been more malleable to all of these synoptic nuances. This means that the other guidance is m ore prone to wild fluctuations, which has been evinced by the behavior of the NAM, GEM, GFS, UK...EVERYTHING. That to me is indicative of guidance that is less equipped to proficiently resolve said nuances in order to yield a more viable solution, thus said output is less viable. The European model has continued to reflect toned down changes that are consistent with coherent signals reflected by the balance of model consensus, and I think we are seeing that one last time here at the 11th hour. We just saw the EURO tone down a slight amount in overall intensity, but not to the drastic degree that the NAM did.

Sound familair?

It should-

The NAM did it at 12z. Let's wait and see what the 12z Euro does.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

The NAM did it at 12z. Let's wait and see what the 12z Euro does.

Yes...and I will.

[bboughton]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In principle I agree.  They "seem" ( I do not intend to impugn NWS with this statement ) to be weighting conservatively; I have not read their AFD so won't speculate on there philosophy for doing so.

Given that the NWS’s primary goal is public safety, there isn’t much of a downside effect of saying it’ll be 18” versus 30” because the impacts will be similar. Also, the lay person is really bad at estimating snow totals, and tend to look at snow depth rather than snowfall. 
 

And although the ship has sailed to some degree, every time they *over*estimate snowfall it undermines confidence in the NWS forecast because the major storm was a “dud.” 
 

Those seem like the incentives to me. They’d probably have to be incredibly confident to call for 24+

[CoastalWx]

Reggie doing the same. Looks just east of BM.

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

OBS THREAD FOR LATER

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56711-obsdisco-the-historic-james-blizzard-of-2022/

cool!  was thinking we should fire one up - the entry into this is today frankly, with b-leaf snows breaking out all over the OV to PA and entering western zones and overspread; we are likely to get currier&ives light snow under street lamps this evening, ahead of the main show. But it's all really keyed into the same larger synoptic shenanigans - yup

[hudsonvalley21]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

At this point can probably tone away from the models for a bit and just nowcast down across the Southeast and see what happens with the current low and then where the developing low pops and compare that to what models have shown.

Agree, just a waiting game now and watch the surface pressure drops.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie doing the same. Looks just east of BM.

devolving into a pedestrian blizzard by the minute

[subdude]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, anyway....sweating a floor of 15" is a first world weenie problem to be sure.

I know, I feel like i'm in the screwzone with 15" Good times...lol