TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 No sugar coating that run. Nothing redeeming about that. Hopefully that’s not something be ingested into the 18z models we’re going to see larger changes in other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah that low is legit. It's part of the same system that's impacting Florida now. I'm actually referencing the convection that develops around this southern max in convective QPF later in the run. That thing slingshots NE and drags the northern low (the main course) out east with it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Love the run to run continuity on the NAM-always have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Are we allowed to sweat all the other models already that nearly whiff us here yet? You should be drinking pedialyte right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Love the run to run continuity on the NAM-always have. Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 2:00 PM, JC-CT said: And it's only Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong though. Yeah but weighed against all the other more-skilled guidance strongly suggests that it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: No one should be sweatin nammy synoptics this far out. Do you know how many here are thinking it and the GFS are correct? Even some Mets. Mind boggling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The high shifted way south on this run Probably shifted south along with the low. Same reason the midwest low shifted south and east from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Do you know how many here are thinking it and the GFS are correct? Even some Mets. Mind boggling very weird, since they are completely different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, shawnmov said: In the immortal words of Jack Buck... "I DON'T BELIEVE WHAT I JUST SAW!" That was Vin Scully after the Kirk Gibson GS in game 1 of the 1988 WS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I'm actually referencing the convection that develops around this southern max in convective QPF later in the run. That thing slingshots NE and drags the northern low (the main course) out east with it. gotcha...yeah that's certainly different than the above reference. I feel like it's impossible to really know ahead of time the merit in this. I think we have seen instances before where such a scenario did actually occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you know how many here are thinking it and the GFS are correct? Even some Mets. Mind boggling The GFS could be close to correct. Euro/GFS compromise is still good for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 In two days it went from a historic 950s bomb blizzard to a potential whiff. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Just saw the 18z NAM What's to stop this from going even FURTHER east! I am recalling Tips -"stretching the X Axis" description from a few days ago - WE STRETCH!!! God damn it we stretch!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong though. Which run? What if it’s a Rainer next run? So yes that can be said for any solution but unless the whole suite does this I don’t have much confidence in any one NAM output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I dont like what I see going on right now. Strong consensus early, and me scoffing at excitement on monday, becoming a believer by last might 00z, seeing media folks go nuts and now seeing complete model schizophrenia. It would mess with a lot of peoples heads including my own to lose this. It isnt common to have strong early consensus go awry inside 72h. This is not 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: In two days it went from a historic 950s bomb blizzard to a potential whiff. Maybe I won't have to cancel my tee time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: In two days it went from a historic 950s bomb blizzard to a potential whiff. In one run 6 hours apart from NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: That was Vin Scully after the Kirk Gibson GS in game 1 of the 1988 WS Vin did the TV call. Jack Buck radio: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18z ICON looks like it will be east of 12z and it was already pretty far east at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Soon enough we’ll find out if it’s a burp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 ICON way east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 18z ICON looks like it will be east of 12z and it was already pretty far east at 12z It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That was Vin Scully after the Kirk Gibson GS in game 1 of the 1988 WS It was Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 By my arithmetic--the p/c here is going with 7-13". Of note, the POP's have lowered from earlier. Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Light north wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 23. Blustery, with a north wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: ICON way east wow just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah but weighed against all the other more-skilled guidance strongly suggests that it is. I’m not saying it’s definitely right, but as the first piece of guidance at 18z, a huge jump east is definitely noteworthy, especially if other models follow (looks like the icon may be doing so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 If this storm does whiff it would be such a crazy model failure that they could be so wrong 3-4 days out. You would think we could count on some sort of consistency 3-4 days out from a potential threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I’d say you can probably confidently smash that panic button if the gfs etc jump east like the NAM and Icon did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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