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OBS-NOWCAST for a multi impact main event 4PM today - 8A Monday Jan 16-17, 2022 with post storm minor snow accumulations possible Noon-Midnight Monday evening.


wdrag
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Please follow National Weather Service warnings/statements.  

Starting from another 10 degree morning in NYC, a rapidly changing weather scenario will  cause some power outages, accidents (despite a Holiday weekend) and slippery travel for a time in a fairly large portion of the forum, in part due to at least 42 consecutive hours of freezing temperatures on non snow covered ground, and beginning near sundown when the impact of solar insolation lessens.

Exactly who gets how much of what is being determined by member observations with model and forecast contributions enhancing, but not hyping interest.

Coastal flood threat as per OKX.  Usually we like at least 12 hours of gale force onshore flow to build the water levels, but with the astronomically higher tide cycle, 980s MB pressure at Monday morning high tide, an inch of rain in the 6 hours up to high tide emptying from rivers-streams, there should be enough surge and incoming wave action to cause coastal flooding.  Working a bit against the flooding NYC southward along the NJ shore is the onslaught of wind abating and turning southerly near the time of high tide. Certainly the early part of the morning high tide cycle looms larger. If you're in a tidal inundation area, follow NWS statements. I'd park my car with parking laws in mind where it can't get flooded. 

Wind damage: several 12z/16 HRRRX  graphics are appended.    Please use the legend. Midnight to 6AM is best chance for damaging wind , to occur in a 3hour period ranging from near 2A NYC to near 5A e LI.  Gusts to 60 kt possible e LI with gusts 45 kt possible NYC metro airports.  I could be too conservative.  Have cell phones charged and be prepared for no internet early Monday.

Many of our members, even to western LI will be reporting a bit of snow or sleet late today (some are from Ocean Effect already). mPing will be helpful especially for us inland folks just north of I78 where an hour or 2 error in the precip phase change from snow to sleet/freezing rain or rain can mean an inch or two of snow. 

The 12z HRRR, HRRRX, and 3K NAM seem to support slightly more snow than maybe some are anticipating.  Whether that occurs is unknown. No matter, if you have heart problems and live north of I80, you may want some assistance removing slush laden with maybe 3/4" of rain (glop).  And of course have your resources to clear it by 6PM Monday when temperatures falling below freezing start the solidifying process.  {The HRRRX amounts may be too large by 2", so it is a slower to change model with 1/4-1/2" everywhere up through I84 by 06z, so that could bias the amounts high there. edited in at 1036AM}

ICE: I think parts of the I84 corridor including Sussex County NJ may have pockets of damaging ice near 4AM Monday when the ice combined with wind gusts 45 MPH in the ridges could be enough to knock out some power. 

Monday afternoon-evening: The trough aloft passage and influx of colder air should wring out areas of 0.1-1" snowfall in the steep moist lapse rates associated with the cold pool aloft, including NYC-LI. 

 

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27 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not that it really matters but the models are finally picking up on just how cold it really is. Now looks like maybe a few hours of snow at onset I95 on NW. 

Right along the coast it could be -10 right now and it wouldn’t matter. Water temps are in the mid to upper 40s. The wind direction is all wrong for CAD. Even Boston goes right to rain

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Right along the coast it could be -10 right now and it wouldn’t matter. Water temps are in the mid to upper 40s. The wind direction is all wrong for CAD. Even Boston goes right to rain

Yes thats why I said I95 on NW. Long Island beaches will go straight to rain.

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Winds have shifted to an easterly direction in Fairfield County, CT and temps have quickly jumped to the mid 20s.

 

It will only take a subtle wind direction shift to warm things up considerably.

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35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Would not be surprised if we see NYC get an inch with this and LGA/JFK see nothing.  

Yea you can see the impact of the east wind right now so longitude will make a difference here. Not sure quite for NYC but easily could see Newark getting an inch.   

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32 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Winds have shifted to an easterly direction in Fairfield County, CT and temps have quickly jumped to the mid 20s.

 

It will only take a subtle wind direction shift to warm things up considerably.

The warmth will really ramp when they get strong, 5-10 mph won't do much anywhere other than immediate ocean but once SE wind strengthens its game over.  

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7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

As always with these storms want to pay attention to what happens near DC and Philly. Although they are actually favored in this scenario due to being more inland if its snowing good in those places its usually a sign NYC will see front end snow.   

DC is way west of NYC, while it’s rare there are instances in this type of setup where they thump and nyc and Boston go right to rain. We are just so much closer to the ocean then DC. East wind is not your friend 

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21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

DC is way west of NYC, while it’s rare there are instances in this type of setup where they thump and nyc and Boston go right to rain. We are just so much closer to the ocean then DC. East wind is not your friend 

True, temp has stopped going up and held steady at 24 here. We'll see I guess. I do see its 31 in Long Beach but for front end snow inch or so I'm talking places like Bronx and Upper Manhattan

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3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not that it really matters but the models are finally picking up on just how cold it really is. Now looks like maybe a few hours of snow at onset I95 on NW. 

Sometimes patience pays...  We know the mesoscale models can get too amped. I started seeing the HRRR deviate from the fast warmup yesterday and ditto the soundings from the EC...and that's why i was trying to not dismiss.  I think sometimes poster pressure can mislead us from reality. I know that affected me on IDA, when clearly the SPC HREF was hung ho about 5-9".

Thanks for your posts. 

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5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Sometimes patience pays...  We know the mesoscale models can get too amped. I started seeing the HRRR deviate from the fast warmup yesterday and ditto the soundings from the EC...and that's why i was trying to not dismiss.  I think sometimes poster pressure can mislead us from reality. I know that affected me on IDA, when clearly the SPC HREF was hung ho about 5-9".

Thanks for your posts. 

Thank you for your posts as well. I am also in no means wishcasting here. I know this is a non event for NYC once that roaring southeast wind comes in but at this point we've tracked it so long im just hoping for some snow at the start. 

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