yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z EPS mean at DCA is 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Hmmm, impressed you remembered that. Yeah I also just retired at 41yo. My first day of retirement was out big snowstorm last Monday. Don't cry too many tears for me. Private equity big boss for the win. Went with weenie because I couldn't find the gag button. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ops appear to have done nice job on this one from a pretty good range imo. The general idea hasn't wavered for a few days and if you think about it, ensembles made it harder to forecast. Ensembles didn't do all that great at their most useful range. Pretty unusual the way it's played out so far. Only call: 3-4" IMBY 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Pretty much every snow map looks about the same for mby so assuming some of this is sleet I think 4-6" out here is a reasonable first call It’s first guess, not first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Even out here my call is 3-4. Those warm noses never fail to verify. I expect a lot of mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s first guess, not first call I'm DZ not DT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It’s Thursday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 By Chief Meteorologist George Flickinger out of Lynchburg, VA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I am nowhere near ready to make any kind of call. The models have consistently bullseyed me for 3 days. The Lucy rug pull could be right around the corner. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 0z runs will be a big deal..big deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Final call 2-4 DC then pingers and rain which is fine, perfect stats padder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The one trend that continues and its not what we want...is a slightly more amplified SW each run. That's what's offsetting a lot of the improvements people point out on some runs. So what you’re saying is that the same shit keeps happening in the end regardless of what comes before it? Seems annoying. I wonder where I’ve heard that before… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Maybe this is a season of overpreformers? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 0z runs will be a big deal..big deal I hope 0z marks the moment when our King GFS will lead us into a triumphant victory. Perhaps, with its mighty sword it will deal a deathblow to this evil shortwave that chains the storm to the mountains. Finally free, our storm will run free up the coast at last, delivering snow for all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 27 minutes ago, AU74 said: Went with weenie because I couldn't find the gag button. Just don't gag on your beef franks and you'll be A-ok. Remember, they plump when you cook 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am nowhere near ready to make any kind of call. The models have consistently bullseyed me for 3 days. The Lucy rug pull could be right around the corner. I’m thinking of coming to Frederick Co Va for this one if it still the bulls eye on Saturday and if it looks it will be a dud here in Owings Mills. My mom’s place is in a good location. Close to 1100 ft about 8 miles sw of Winchester. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ALEET ALEET……DT’s 1st guess map is coming shortly. He had to run to his local Wal-Mart and buy crayons 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowfan96 said: Couldn't agree more! With these types of events, the transition to sleet is often sooner and farther north and west than what the models like to depict. And if the parent system gets any stronger than currently projected - which is quite possible - that quick changeover is even more likely. Seems like the over/under is 2-3" for many of us near/along the beltway in this setup. As noted, when the models suggest maybe 6 hours of snow, it's more like 3-4 before the mix. We can get a quick 2+ inches though because of good rates in that 3-4 hour burst. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Tip for our pros. This seems more relevant than 'best worst-case scenario' maps: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Seems like 00z NAM is going to be a bit faster again... do we want a faster system or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s Thursday For all intents and purposes, the ops basically haven’t wavered in 2+ days. It’s uncanny, really, and despite talk of slowing down vorts and getting more confluence and getting good new data from dropsondes and shit, there’s no reason to think we’ll see much different play out on Sunday into Monday. You guys out west are going to get smoked. No need to try to downplay it for fear of jinxing it. It’s going to happen…it’s been a while since you guys have cashed in while folks to the east flipped. It’s like order is being restored to the universe. Us fancy city folk will rip fatties for 3-4 hours, ping, then warm up and rain for a bit. It is what it is, and personally as long as no one is posting snips of correlation coefficient radar as the mix line approaches, I’ll be fine. I’m already more than halfway to average for the season, so tacking on a few inches will just serve to get me even closer to that number. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 43 minutes ago, Clueless said: Even out here my call is 3-4. Those warm noses never fail to verify. I expect a lot of mixing. There may be a warm nose, but you, You are on Route 9. I've been there, many many times on the way to Charles Town. You got elevation. You are gonna get AT LEAST 7-8 inches. You're gonna get obliterated during the thump from orographic effects! Position yourself at Charles Town. They get demolished BAD in these kinds of setups. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Seems like 00z NAM is going to be a bit faster again... do we want a faster system or no? It Doesn’t Matter 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: For all intents and purposes, the ops basically haven’t wavered in 2+ days. It’s uncanny, really, and despite talk of slowing down vorts and getting more confluence and getting good new data from dropsondes and shit, there’s no reason to think we’ll see much different play on Sunday into Monday. You guys west are going to get smoked. No need to try to downplay it for fear of jinxing it. It’s going to happen…it’s been a while since you guys have cashed in while folks to the east flipped. It’s like order is being restored to the universe. Us fancy city folk will rip fatties for 3-4 hours, ping, then warm up and rain for a bit. It is what it is, and personally as long as no one is posting snips of correlation coefficient radar as the mix line approaches, I’ll be fine. I’m already more than halfway to average for the season, so tacking on a few inches will just serve to get me even closer to that number. What if I change my profile pic to the CC radar just as the mix line is on Burke’s doorstep? Does that count? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Jebman said: There may be a warm nose, but you, You are on Route 9. I've been there, many many times on the way to Charles Town. You got elevation. You are gonna get AT LEAST 7-8 inches. You’d think. But thanks Jeb. I can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: What if I change my profile pic to the CC radar just as the mix line is on Burke’s doorstep? Does that count? Gotta admit, I chuckled. I might steal your idea. Gotta face your fears head on and all that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clueless said: You’d think. But thanks Jeb. I can only hope. Believe it. Enjoy it. Live it. You're gonna be diggin snow for a while. Don't make me have to use The Face for your backyard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: It Doesn’t Matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Seems like 00z NAM is going to be a bit faster again... do we want a faster system or no? nah we want to wait till all the cold air is gone 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Seems like 00z NAM is going to be a bit faster again... do we want a faster system or no? But what did it look like at 6hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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