RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DT was saying that to me on twitter last night....I mentioned that 00z GEFS trended well east, and he said they didn't change much. I was like the mean went from Boston to the Benchmark lol He drinks too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't concentrate on the big L though. As Scott says look at the conveyor belts and temps. Forcing is way ahead of the big L. That's the meat and potatoes for us. 6 to 9 hrs and she gone I'd like to believe if this somehow did miraculously get itself out over water, then that look might change a bit as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 00z Euro op verbatim is really a useless event. 2-3" of snow followed by 0.5" of rain. All in about 6-8 hours. If you wake up to 2" of snow and its washed away by noon, did it even happen? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't concentrate on the big L though. As Scott says look at the conveyor belts and temps. Forcing is way ahead of the big L. That's the meat and potatoes for us. 6 to 9 hrs and she gone The timing will help keep the liquid to a min. How that timeframe is sliced (frozen vs non) is TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Meh I know my SWFE climo and you know you get overwhelmed with warm air. In the interior it wont Are you trying to tell me how to forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: The 00z Euro op verbatim is really a useless event. 2-3" of snow followed by 0.5" of rain. All in about 6-8 hours. If you wake up to 2" of snow and its washed away by noon, did it even happen? If you wake up to ignore trends did you really wake up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He drinks too much. His point was that it really didn't influence snowfall amounts that much....but that doesn't mean that there weren't significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DT was saying that to me on twitter last night....I mentioned that 00z GEFS trended well east, and he said they didn't change much. I was like the mean went from Boston to the Benchmark lol I don't know what to say on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Are you trying to tell me how to forecast? Wut are you hitting them edibles again? No such thing. Enjoy the warm day ahead before your tips and nips get frozen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Wut are you hitting them edibles again? No such thing. Enjoy the warm day ahead before for tips and nips get frozen You're on fire this AM lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Probably a compromise eps gefs is the best status quo. With a lean towards the other guidance I think it's much too soon to discuss "compromise" solutions. They are both moving, so we don't even have stationary goal posts to compromise from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see how the 06z run has come back east a good tick Good to see some offshore members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You're on fire this AM lol He's gone wild again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not if he counts every 0.1” Sometimes I don’t even count my .25” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Sometimes I don’t even count my .25” I've missed 1.5ers before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: The 00z Euro op verbatim is really a useless event. 2-3" of snow followed by 0.5" of rain. All in about 6-8 hours. If you wake up to 2" of snow and its washed away by noon, did it even happen? Yeah, forgettable event for most. Some are trying to save face exaggerating the importance of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Not sure if its been posted, but GEFS snowfall mean is very pleasing to most 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Look how far east the SREF is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So to me this makes sense. Compare 00z GEFS and 06z GEFS. - At 00z Monday you can see the srn stream on the 6z run is a bit east of the 00z position. - Nrn stream at 06z appears a little more strung out and weaker. All the energy at 00z is in the back of the s/w which will tighten it up. - Confluence north of New England looks better, especially as you advance 12 hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Look how far east the SREF is That's interesting give how amped they tend to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 41 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Wait, so the opposite of what Tip said? 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I still have no idea how to read those sensitivity charts, but makes sense knocking down the ridge a bit would shove things east down. Although I think a strong nrn vort is a risk of picking up the srn vort. That’s how I’m reading it too. The northern stream is really dominant in these ensemble runs. It digs so much that the southern stream has no choice but to slingshot inland. 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't concentrate on the big L though. As Scott says look at the conveyor belts and temps. Forcing is way ahead of the big L. That's the meat and potatoes for us. 6 to 9 hrs and she gone I really don’t hate thinking of some of these “bad” runs as a WAA thump and done. Throw a laterally translating band across for 6” region wide and then slot. It wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That's what I think but it won't matter to you or I. Thumpidity Thump to rain back to light snow. First call out Saturday. Some more kinks towards LI so maybe not done moving we track I actually believe it does matter. If it tracks over the outer cape which is Climo , it would basically go heavy snow to sleet to drizzle and dry slot and limit any warmth or melting. If it cuts up the CTRV that will blast temps well into the 40’s and 55+ in E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DT was saying that to me on twitter last night....I mentioned that 00z GEFS trended well east, and he said they didn't change much. I was like the mean went from Boston to the Benchmark lol Stop interacting with him lol. Guys a fraud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, OceanStWx said: That’s how I’m reading it too. The northern stream is really dominant in these ensemble runs. It digs so much that the southern stream has no choice but to slingshot inland. I really don’t hate thinking of some of these “bad” runs as a WAA thump and done. Throw a laterally translating band across for 6” region wide and then slot. It wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen this winter. TBH, it would be the best thing that has happened this winter for me....quite literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That’s how I’m reading it too. The northern stream is really dominant in these ensemble runs. It digs so much that the southern stream has no choice but to slingshot inland. I really don’t hate thinking of some of these “bad” runs as a WAA thump and done. Throw a laterally translating band across for 6” region wide and then slot. It wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen this winter. Good stuff from you last night. I miss the days of analyzing. I'm out of the forecast biz since May. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Never mind the models, There's a lot of sensitivity in this thread ha ha. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 06z GFS has one of the more extreme gradients I have seen around SNE lol That would be a trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That’s how I’m reading it too. The northern stream is really dominant in these ensemble runs. It digs so much that the southern stream has no choice but to slingshot inland. Thanks! The point I was trying to explain to him was that my layman's eye was seeing the southern shortwave keep getting slowed/delayed on the models, which seemed to be giving the northern stream shortwave more time to catch up relative to how far east the southern shortwave makes it before starting to get captured, which I think would have the same result as a stronger northern stream s/w...an earlier capture? Am I thinking about this correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This beast still an inland runner? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS has been sniffing out some mid range storm trends lately..who knows. Not counting on it, and I'm not in the game anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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