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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Flatten everything and it probably would head east. But I don't know if a weaker wave coupled with a really strong northern stream digging would help any. 

I think he means me, my name is John, and I have mentioned the facets heh...

I'm just modestly concerned about this tendency for Pac mechanics to be "over-assessed."  There's been a kind of leitmotif over recent years of modeling frankly, sometimes more obvious, other times more nuanced.  

I don't really think it is done on purpose - that part has been tongue-in-cheek.  But rather dependable, one can anticipate losing kinematic ("might") once a coverage has moved from 168 to 72 or so hours.  

In this case, that matters.  The ridge is too far west of climo, but...prooobably that is compensated by the speed of the flow - tending to stretch x-coordinate. 

I am noticing the original conception of the GFS to phase is out the window. These two waves end up not phasing.  That is very important, because as is, the lead is quite powerful, but if the aft approach "kicks" more...it ends up driving that lead toward the NY Bit and not allowing it to move/capture a low toward Upstate NY. 

This above idea is nicely exemplified by the 06z GFS, with ~ 10 or 15 kts of additional wind momentum in the NP at 84 hours, and I don't really believe the "hints" more coastal commitment are in jest.

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I agree with Fisher on the cape track.

I'd like to see something near there too, but as it is intensifying. What isn't ideal, is a Cape track, but only after LBSW, and it's just occluding and dumbelling off the south coast. By then the WAA is well inland and polluting SNE. Having it intensify as it goes to the Cape would be significantly better. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think he means me, my name is John, and I have mentioned the facets heh...

I'm just modestly concerned about this tendency for Pac mechanics to be "over-assessed."  There's been a kind of leitmotif over recent years of modeling frankly, sometimes more obvious, other times more nuanced.  

I don't really think it is done on purpose - that part has been tongue-in-cheek.  But rather dependable, one can anticipate losing kinematic ("might") once a coverage has moved from 168 to 72 or so hours.  

In this case, that matters.  The ridge is too far west of climo, but...prooobably that is compensated by the speed of the flow - tending to stretch x-coordinate. 

I am noticing the original conception of the GFS to phase is out the window. These two waves end up not phasing.  That is very important, because as is, the lead is quite powerful, but if the aft approach "kicks" more...it ends up driving that lead toward the NY Bit and not allowing it to move/capture a low toward Upstate NY. 

This above idea is nicely exemplified by the 06z GFS, with ~ 10 or 15 kts of additional wind momentum in the NP at 84 hours, and I don't really believe the "hints" more coastal commitment are in jest.

 

Phasing hardly ever send up as proficient or fast as originally modeled...been saying that.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, guidance often over sells the moisture east of mid level lows...IE they overestimate precip from low level fronto, and drastrically underassess precip attributable to mid level fronto.

2 areas of big wins will be the deform and the pivot.  we just don't know who gets them.  I volunteer and behalf of myself, Brian, Gene and Jeff.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like to see something near there too, but as it is intensifying. What isn't ideal, is a Cape track, but only after LBSW, and it's just occluding and dumbelling off the south coast. By then the WAA is well inland and polluting SNE. Having it intensify as it goes to the Cape would be significantly better. 

 A later/less proficient phase would take care of that.

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For me there are three main deterministic hurdles:

- correctly sampling the current S/W in the N stream passing SE through Alberta

- correctly sampling the S/W currently just beginning to nose in off the Washington/Oregon coast(s).

- the proficiency of phase ( amount) once they are both ejected into the L/W ... east of 100W through the synopsis

Little longer observations:  That last point is dependent to some degree on the first two.  The larger hemispheric manifold/instruction is that the western +PNAP is subtly increasing, and that is helping to bottom out the trough over eastern mid latitudes.  

phase roficiency: 

at one end, full phase.  I visualize that resulting in slowing down, deep, massive and powerful. This is the less likely, but not 0 chance.  The flow is too fast and that disrupts the kinematic "fusion" if you will. A bigger western ridge expression would tend to start that process - I can't find a run anywhere that's doing that.  But I suppose there's time.

in the middle you get partial phase.  This ... This is [apparently] the preferred idea of the EPS/ Euro. Basically, the lead is what it is ...but the NP S/W borrows in from the NW, and that tips the flow N along the EC ...and anything in said flow goes with it.  So in that sense, it is "rotating" around the stress of the S/W's approach ( which is physically keyed into the planetary wave space so is thus having more proxy - ).

at the other end, no phase.  This would mean the S/W approaching acts more like a 'kicker'. The lead wave gets ejected probably more NE as opposed to N or NNE.  

It's hard to know where along that spectrum this will be.. but I suspect the large circulation is more confident, ... the interactions within will become so probably when this is more 84 ... 72 lead.    

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