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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol.  Just need to get those mid-level goodies slightly further SE on a BGM to BTV arc and we'll be in business.

Just need to keep getting away from that split conveyor belts and have some big deformation band arcing from PA in NNE.  

icon-all-neng-total_snow_10to1-2539600.thumb.png.34cef458843bbd998d940f79e749ccad.png

That distribution is worthy of a Ray mortal combat knockout. 

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Just now, JC-CT said:

Yeah definitely on a flatter trajectory

Only potential "negative" is the southern stream is a tick slower....so that could cause it to make up ground a bit later...but the heights are definitely noticeably lower over NE, so I think that hopefully ends up causing a less amped solution.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only potential "negative" is the southern stream is a tick slower....so that could cause it to make up ground a bit later...but the heights are definitely noticeably lower over NE, so I think that hopefully ends up causing a less amped solution.

I see that too. Lets get that STS to get the confluence going to our northeast.

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Barring a wholesale shift offshore... the retreating high and prolonged easterly flow is going to make it challenging to get >6" of snow south of the Pike. Even if you did track this thing over HVN-BOS for many it's heavy snow to heavy rain. 

I think a reasonable "best case scenario" for the I-84 corridor is like 3-6 or 4-8" followed by heavy rain. 

If the entire thing gets shunted offshore then we do better but that seems unlikely right now.

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Just now, CT Rain said:

Barring a wholesale shift offshore... the retreating high and prolonged easterly flow is going to make it challenging to get >6" of snow south of the Pike. Even if you did track this thing over HVN-BOS for many it's heavy snow to heavy rain. 

I think a reasonable "best case scenario" for the I-84 corridor is like 3-6 or 4-8" followed by heavy rain. 

If the entire thing gets shunted offshore then we do better but that seems unlikely right now.

Yep. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Barring a wholesale shift offshore... the retreating high and prolonged easterly flow is going to make it challenging to get >6" of snow south of the Pike. Even if you did track this thing over HVN-BOS for many it's heavy snow to heavy rain. 

I think a reasonable "best case scenario" for the I-84 corridor is like 3-6 or 4-8" followed by heavy rain. 

If the entire thing gets shunted offshore then we do better but that seems unlikely right now.

Why does that seem unlikely based on the massive SE shifts we are already seeing today ?

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol.  Just need to get those mid-level goodies slightly further SE on a BGM to BTV arc and we'll be in business.

Just need to keep getting away from that split conveyor belts and have some big deformation band arcing from PA in NNE.  

icon-all-neng-total_snow_10to1-2539600.thumb.png.34cef458843bbd998d940f79e749ccad.png

It's kind of an odd deep/total layer evolution... It's attempting to capture and stall for 3 hours over Mt Wachusett...

Don't normally see system perform pirouette at that location but the whole of this thing has got its peccadillo

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

NY State...even if this ticks east some it will be in NY State probably....since the western solutions are in SE Ontario to near MSS....lol.

I am used to big defom bands in VT and NYS.  That seems inevitable with this one.  But still, if it trends east a bit more and head over the Cape, I would think the big nw to se very heavy band that Chris describes will start to pivot/rotate while areas s and e will dry slot.  Is that scenario reasonably possible?

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I am used to big defom bands in VT and NYS.  That seems inevitable with this one.  But still, if it trends east a bit more and head over the Cape, I would think the big nw to se very heavy band that Chris describes will start to pivot/rotate while areas s and e will dry slot.  Is that scenario reasonably possible?

Gotta take your QPF bomb this time and like it.

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