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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Remember that one storm that was supposed to get sucked out east by a leading vort and it just didn't happen? Models couldn't get it right from 6 hours out, they just kept adjusting to reality. Anyone remember the date? (I feel that one was more miller a, so probably not a good analog, but I just want to know when it was)

I don't recall the weather a week ago let alone a storm from god knows when.  :lol:

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just took a look at everything from 0z euro to all of the 06z runs, Nothing to dislike really, Especially if it continues on 12z with no regression which i feel we will see the west tics continue even up to go time.

NAM had some good stuff right up to my doorstep so I hope it is ahead of the curve here. 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Put your obs for today in here

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56475-january-2022-obsdisco/page/60/#comments

 

 

This thread should be for 1/7

Sorry, I'm done, just epic icing and travel nightmare here, unreal to see..

Long range Hrrr which nailed the DC storm looks good at 48, improvement from the 6z run..

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a reason to go to bed by 9:00. No reason to do what they did last night. 4-8” for all of SNE. Straightforward 

By the time I was done lifting and home, it was 9 and I was spent. Was in rare form last night, but looks like my first call map may still have a shot.

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

By the time I was done lifting and home, it was 9 and I was spent. Was in rare form last night, but looks like my first call map may still have a shot.

Ya lets hope at least for the lower range, with some good mid levels and banding, and hopefully no east shifts should be ok.. 

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't recall the weather a week ago let alone a storm from god knows when.  :lol:

I've always found it fascinating that people here can pull off events/dates out their ass like it happened yesterday and it could have been 10yrs ago. I've kept a weather journal since 1989, but can't remember more than a handful of events tied to specific dates/seasons

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted

Couple thoughts. SREFS were way to far amped down in NJ/NYC early this week so you want them as far west as possible. I’d say shave 75 miles off the NW flank. 

Also haven’t we had a few systems in recent years where we do this multiple low dance, lows popping NE of the main energy only to have within the last 24-48 hours the initial low/energy become the dominant one tucked right into the coast? Seems like that’s what we are seeing and could lend credence to the idea that we may just end up with one consolidated low on modeling within the next few cycles that rides from just off SNJ coast to inside the benchmark or tighter?

 


 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Couple thoughts. SREFS were way to far amped down in NJ/NYC early this week so you want them as far west as possible. I’d say shave 75 miles off the NW flank. 

Also haven’t we had a few systems in recent years where we do this multiple low dance, lows popping NE of the main energy only to have within the last 24-48 hours the initial low/energy become the dominant one tucked right into the coast? Seems like that’s what we are seeing and could lend credence to the idea that we may just end up with one consolidated low on modeling within the next few cycles that rides from just off SNJ coast to inside the benchmark or tighter?

 


 

Do you mean what some of the experience meteorologist were saying yesterday that you were pooh-poohing?  Sorry.

I’ve been listening to them all along and it looks like this scenario they talked about it while we’re headed to. Are you don’t give up until Will give it up lol, Even though my best case scenario is probably 4 to 6

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Like the steadfastness of the RGEM and its track, which I've said all along would be between ACK and the BM.

Interesting that the RGEM has flattened the trof for several runs now... slightly lowering the amplitude but with similar tilt progression and evolution. The vortmax was modeled in SVA, then NVA, then central MD. Higher amplitude is often better for stronger, tucked solutions, but in this case that puts the resulting SLP closer to our latitude.

I'm still suspicious of the really close tuck on the RGEM, but the consistency is great to see. It's too bad all the precipitation is north and northeast of the SLP. The mid-level lows are still immature at our latitudes.

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Do you mean what some of the experience meteorologist were saying yesterday that you were pooh-poohing?  Sorry.

I’ve been listening to them all along and it looks like this scenario they talked about it while we’re headed to. Are you don’t give up until Will give it up lol, Even though my best case scenario is probably 4 to 6

I wouldn’t say poo-pooing what is currently evolving. This is still offshore and not up the canal like those thoughts were the other day. But it’s still salvageable. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Do you mean what some of the experience meteorologist were saying yesterday that you were pooh-poohing?  Sorry.

I’ve been listening to them all along and it looks like this scenario they talked about it while we’re headed to. Are you don’t give up until Will give it up lol, Even though my best case scenario is probably 4 to 6

Well, to be fair he said it was more aimed at me, not Will. I think he respectfully questioned Will, though perhaps implying that even he maybe human and prone to some emotional bias.

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?
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