Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure you can discern any sustained trend from the Antonio Brown of the NWP suite.

I'm dying.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will say that the 3km NAM seems to align pretty well with the 06z EURO.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure you can discern any sustained trend from the Antonio Brown of the NWP suite.

That Burfict hit may have loosened several screws 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will say that the 3km NAM seems to align pretty well with the 06z EURO.

There's definitely still more spread in guidance (and ensembles) than usual for 2 days out.

[CoastalWx]

"I'm free Gammmaaa!!"

[IowaStorm05]

I’m waiting for 12z UK and others but 06z show were getting a lot of snow. Like a bunch. High end advisory low end warning 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

I’m waiting for 12z UK and others but 06z show were getting a lot of snow. Like a bunch.

Another model with CTE.

[PhineasC]

Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

I’m waiting for 12z UK and others but 06z show were getting a lot of snow. Like a bunch.

I wouldn't wait one second for the UKMET. 

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure you can discern any sustained trend from the Antonio Brown of the NWP suite.

When there isn't a discernable trend for several runs and there is also inter-model agreement, then we might be getting close to the final outcome.

Antonio Brown would be congrats Buffalo one run and then what storm? the next.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Happens every time, but if you drop a 6-12" range, everyone perceives it as a forecast for a regionwide 12" lol

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's definitely still more spread in guidance (and ensembles) than usual for 2 days out.

More spread that any typical day, sure. But I would argue less spread than usual with a shortwave of that sharpness and implied sensitivity.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Another model with CTE.

Unfortunately, we'll never be able to properly diagnose it until its decomissioned.

[bristolri_wx]

Not too shabby...  seems reasonable...

[tiger_deF]

What we all really need is a monster shift on the 12z GFS 

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Not too shabby...  seems reasonable...

I see a small 4-6 circle over Ginxys head.

[JC-CT]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

I see a small 4-6 circle over Ginxys head.

That's well south of him, okx did that

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

I see a small 4-6 circle over Ginxys head.

I think he is north of that.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Not too shabby...  seems reasonable...

Bad map. By tonite they’ll have 4-8” back past CTRV

[dryslot]

If folks keep tossing we won't have any models left.

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That Burfict hit may have loosened several screws 

Maybe Brady can invite it into his home and Guerrero can give it a deep rub down. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Not too shabby...  seems reasonable...

 

[JC-CT]

you could say reggie is not quite as good but it's still decent and pretty similar. it should go without saying, but nobody should be expecting a regionwide 12" storm.

[DavisStraight]

Actually then he is in the 4-6, I didn't see that yellow as 6-8.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

If folks keep tossing we won't have any models left.

I'm not sure how you can take the NAM seriously after that 00z-06z-12z sequence.

[MJO812]

Rgem 

[JC-CT]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Actually then he is in the 4-6, I didn't see that yellow as 6-8.

true

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Yea, unreal.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

RGEM crushes here 

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Not too shabby...  seems reasonable...

Looks too generous in CT. I'd cut those in half and knock an inch or two off RI and SEMA. Hopefully we double those tomorrow, but there's not enough support for big numbers right now IMO.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure how you can take the NAM seriously after that 00z-06z-12z sequence.

I'm not even taking the RGEM seriously either until its inside 24hrs and that's a reach, It has been horrendous all year this year and the past 3 or 4 yrs and finally catches on the last 24 hrs when who cares.