ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I feel like a ton of ice research has come out since then proving that stronger winds are in fact a net benefit to ice accretion. I think sheltered from winds, but there is also some subtle cooling on the east side as air ascends over the terrain and even a wet bulb temp change of 0.5 degrees can matter a lot. I always felt anecdotally in “calm wind” ice events, I ended up at 32.1F pretty damned fast even when starting out cold. It’s nice that subsequent research ends up proving that to be at least a little more than just anecdotes. Also, even back a recently as the 1990s, there was conventional wisdom that the valleys would always be the worst icing spots. I remember reading so many forecasts and AFDs about the CT valley having to watch out for the ice and then I would be 29F and FZRA while CEF and BDL were 34F and RA. It was occasionally true they would get ice while we rained but usually in southerly flow events with in-situ CAD where the icing wasn’t a big deal anyway and would fairly quickly change to rain there…the more serious events were always worse with elevation (at least below a couple thousand feet)…it seemed like the ice climo knowledge was imported from outside New England in many of those instances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 RGEM and CMC have been noticeably colder than other guidance with 2m temps every run for tomorrow .. anyone know if they did something to those models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 It all really draws the notion that the worst ice storms must be some sweet ratio between heat released thru phase change, vs offsetting heat sink feeding into the accretion layer. too much one way … more PLs … go the other and 32.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I always felt anecdotally in “calm wind” ice events, I ended up at 32.1F pretty damned fast even when starting out cold. It’s nice that subsequent research ends up proving that to be at least a little more than just anecdotes. Also, even back a recently as the 1990s, there was conventional wisdom that the valleys would always be the worst icing spots. I remember reading so many forecasts and AFDs about the CT valley having to watch out for the ice and then I would be 29F and FZRA while CEF and BDL were 34F and RA. It was occasionally true they would get ice while we rained but usually in southerly flow events with in-situ CAD where the icing wasn’t a big deal anyway and would fairly quickly change to rain there…the more serious events were always worse with elevation (at least below a couple thousand feet)…it seemed like the ice climo was imported for outside New England in many of those instances. You probably aren't wrong there. So much ice research was from the central CONUS, where shallow cold outbreaks lead to ice storms. Those tend to bleed down the valleys as opposed to our active damming events that maximize cold in that 950 mb zone. All you have to do is dig through StormData and see all the big ice reports are always at elevation and always on the northeast side of town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Yeah no shit. CMC stays ZR the whole way. I’m noticing ever so subtle but more robust positive surface pressure pattern damming down eastern New England on that guidance comparatively. I’m wondering if there might be a little bit more ageo just critical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It all really draws the notion that the worst ice storms must be some sweet ratio between heat released thru phase change, vs offsetting heat sink feeding into the accretion layer. too much one way … more PLs … go the other and 32.1 Yeah this is a good cliff’s notes version explanation of the balancing act that needs to occur. I’ve seen so many potential larger ice events become more just nuisance because of too many ice pellets or latent warming to near freezing. Ironically several months before the December 2008 storm, we narrowly avoided a monster ice event on Feb 12-13, 2008. We had pretty solid accretion but it kind of stalled out around a quarter to 3/8ths and then we rotted near 32F with very heavy precip rates and most of it ran off. We just didn’t quite have the dewpoint drain there. Little did I know that it would all materialize 10 months later almost to the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 CMC has a much more impressive ice set up 2.5 days later … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is a good cliff’s notes version explanation of the balancing act that needs to occur. I’ve seen so many potential larger ice events become more just nuisance because of too many ice pellets or latent warming to near freezing. Ironically several months before the December 2008 storm, we narrowly avoided a monster ice event on Feb 12-13, 2008. We had pretty solid accretion but it kind of stalled out around a quarter to 3/8ths and then we rotted near 32F with very heavy precip rates and most of it ran off. We just didn’t quite have the dewpoint drain there. Little did I know that it would all materialize 10 months later almost to the day. I'm just looking through the METARs from ORH for 2008 () and there are some classic WTF ones in there. KORH 120254Z AUTO 05012G19KT 2 1/2SM FZRA BR OVC001 M01/M01 A2982 RMK AO2 CIG 001V006 SLP110 P0021 60038 T10061011 56039 Ripping off 0.21" FZRA in an hour, gusting to 19 kt. Within 2 hours the ASOS shit the bed as it ticked off another 0.18" in an hour. Kind of wish those ice sensors were up and running then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: RGEM and CMC have been noticeably colder than other guidance with 2m temps every run for tomorrow .. anyone know if they did something to those models Eggnog and gummies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas, Weenies! Meh-ry to significant on the latest models. (except for NH---dinner by candlelight for a few) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 19F and raining in Stowe Village, ha. Light snow now at the mountain at 20F. 4,000ft is 31F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 Getting some icing now 29.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 light zr my car was showing 25 on the way to the gas station.. I felt like I was driving on the beach with the amount of salt and sand they were putting down.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 31F with freezing rain where I am in Milford Pennsylvania. 26F at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: light zr my car was showing 25 on the way to the gas station.. I felt like I was driving on the beach with the amount of salt and sand they were putting down.. Thankfully no one uses sand anymore . I hated those days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thankfully no one uses sand anymore . I hated those days whatever they use there was alot of it... expecting .10 to .25 here.. Driving to my moms house in Agawam later hoping it warms by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skivt2 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Grinch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Skivt2 said: Grinch This morning in Mtn Ops “You know what this mountain needs right now? Some freezing rain.” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 I'm surprised the HRRR is so paltry on the ice. Looks like the NAM is a decent compromise between it and the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 25* and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm surprised the HRRR is so paltry on the ice. Looks like the NAM is a decent compromise between it and the RGEM Radar trends seem a little further south than HRRR. Merry Christmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Radar trends seem a little further south than HRRR. Merry Christmas everyone! I think the HRRR depiction is due to warmer temps, not qpf. It has the freezing line up to the Pike region by 9:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 26/23. -FZRA. Everything already coated up. Driveway is quite slick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 A very merry Christmas! Thanks to everyone for sharing their remarkable knowledge and tolerating my weenieish babble all year. Enjoy the day with your loved ones. With the sun just rising, it appears we have a light glaze. Breeze is still northerly and cold is holding tougher than I expected yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 29 and -zr. Already nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 27 also -zr. Things are a glazing up. Just hopeful it melts before 1... Have to drive to Simsbury ( all back roads ). Christmas dinner. Ps.. Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Merry Christmas weenies. What a nasty ZR event unfolding early This morning. Even into BOS….AWT. Mid 20s over ORH county. We’ll see how fast that warms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: A very merry Christmas! Thanks to everyone for sharing their remarkable knowledge and tolerating my weenieish babble all year. Enjoy the day with your loved ones. With the sun just rising, it appears we have a light glaze. Breeze is still northerly and cold is holding tougher than I expected yesterday. Merry Christmas! Is my assumption your glaze is in Hamden and not Fisher's correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Hope ya’ll have a great Christmas Day and enjoy whatever you are doing. Hopefully power stays on for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Started as ZR here. Hopefully it flips when the heavier precip arrives. 21.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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