January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[dallen7908]

27 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Do you honestly think this map will resemble reality in 12 days?

Forecast highs from the GEFS and EPS for January 3-5th are predicted to be in the upper 30s for many of us.  With above normal temperatures likely for the southeast, waves moving along the strong thermal gradient could be interesting - and maybe we'll be on the "right" side. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, dallen7908 said:

Forecast highs from the GEFS and EPS for January 3-5th are predicted to be in the upper 30s for many of us.  With above normal temperatures likely for the southeast, waves moving along the strong thermal gradient could be interesting - and maybe we'll be on the "right" side. 

The SER can’t last all winter.  Sometimes it’s our friend.  

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

And ofc the cold typically comes via a -AO, or in the absence of that something like 2014 with the -EPO. The -NAO (esp during a Nino with a legit stj) enhances the odds of a storm tracking underneath and just off the coast, plus keeps a N/NE wind component during a coastal storm. This is critical for significant snow in the lowlands, not so much for places further inland, esp the western highlands where there are microclimates with mechanisms like NW flow/upslope that also provide snow.

Will be interesting to see if the roll forward analogs do indeed result in a more conducive pattern for cold and snow in the East by early to mid Jan 2022. Certainly appears the cold and snow hits out West first. 

 

[frd]

Regimes

 

 

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, CAPE said:

2013-14 was a cool winter but also pretty rare in that it was EPO/WPO driven and the AO/NAO was predominately positive, and we had plenty of luck with timing of the smaller events. Bigger events mostly cut. 2015 was fun once we got to mid Feb, but literally nothing for more than 2/3 of met winter for the lowlands. Those winters were also back before clippers became seemingly 'extinct' which is something you have noted of late. I would guess if we see a close repeat of the big -EPO setup again(with +AO) it would be generally frustratingly dry and cold in between rain/slop with any wave that amplified.

Just to add to this…we have to be careful using the numerical indexes.  The AO is calculated using the 1000mb level which isn’t the most influential on our weather and can be skewed by conflicting anomalies in its domain. I’ll content we had more “help” up top in 2014 then many give that winter credit. 
This is the mean winter h5

 

The lower heights in Canada and Iceland effect the AO index but there was a tendency to get ridging over the top from the epo to Scandinavia.  Again it’s about degrees. That alone with a bad pac wouldn’t help much. But with an excellent pac, WPO/epo/pna ridge that’s plenty helpful. The net effect if that is a great look Imo. The tpv is displaced in a great spot to get systems rotating around and just under us. 
 

And here are 2 of our warning events that had a lot of HL help…

Later in Feb and March there was less HL help but by then cold was established and things were set in motion. That also happens. 1996 the blocking broke down before the 2 big storms in January but the wheels were set in motion. 
 

2015 was actually the more anomalous pattern. But as you pointed out it was really only about 2 weeks in Feb and one storm in March (which was a weird trailing wave which almost never works) that delivered all the snow. Maybe it was just luck!  But there was an extremely displaced PV in Quebec that acted to simulate similat longwave characteristics that HL blocking would. Those indexes are cheap shortcuts but you really still have to look at the longwave pattern because there are exceptions and times the numbers don’t do reality Justice. I know you know that just wanted to add to your post. 

[psuhoffman]

This is just to highlight why Nina’s can suck even when we get cold. The long range 6z Gfs does dump the trough into the east with as much depth as we can reasonably hope for…but there is no stj so the resultant system is going to miss us to the north.  

 

[Yeoman]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is just to highlight why Nina’s can suck even when we get cold. The long range 6z Gfs does dump the trough into the east with as much depth as we can reasonably hope for…but there is no stj so the resultant system is going to miss us to the north.  

 

Looks like a standard clipper to me.. don't forget the GFS 65 mile north bias at 384 hours

[WxUSAF]

By recent standards, quite encouraging 12z Op runs so far with at least possibilities starting after New Years.

[ldub23]

48 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Looks like a standard clipper to me.. don't forget the GFS 65 mile north bias at 384 hours

Thats also 384 hours away so at 12z it  may be dumping  on NC or gone altogether.

[Wonderdog]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

By recent standards, quite encouraging 12z Op runs so far with at least possibilities starting after New Years.

Yes, and it shows a gulf low at hr. 384 as opposed to the 6z run which showed a clipper type system getting ready to miss us

[StormchaserChuck!]

STJ is weak.. I can see the pattern breaking down or nothing. 

[psuhoffman]

The point of my last post was mostly missed. I wasn’t actually worried about the day 16 op Gfs being right but showing how that run was a good example of how a Nina can be frustrating even if we do get all the pretty h5 colors in the right places. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The point of my last post was mostly missed. I wasn’t actually worried about the day 16 op Gfs being right but showing how that run was a good example of how a Nina can be frustrating even if we do get all the pretty h5 colors in the right places. 

Yes, any northern stream system has the potential to do that. My hope would be that at the least we can get cutters into cad, or true clippers that actually track under us all the way to the coast.

[87storms]

i moved to frederick over the summer and my jeep has 106k miles on it now (though i could use new tires)...it needs to snow.

re 2013-2015...i personally think those are the gold standards for long winters here...certainly primo level.  maybe not the snowiest region-wide, but i know there were frozen ponds/lakes/canals both seasons...especially by feb '15.

[nj2va]

27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yes, any northern stream system has the potential to do that. My hope would be that at the least we can get cutters into cad, or true clippers that actually track under us all the way to the coast.

Selfishly, I’d love a NS/clipper pattern for a few weeks.  Mountains would cash in MD/WV and it’d help turn around what’s been a dreadful start to the season for the ski resorts.  

I think it was 2 or 3 winters ago where a little clipper dropped 12” in McHenry…ratios were like 30:1 or something like that (or honestly even more).

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i moved to frederick over the summer and my jeep has 106k miles on it now (though i could use new tires)...it needs to snow.

re 2013-2015...i personally think those are the gold standards for long winters here...certainly primo level.  maybe not the snowiest region-wide, but i know there were frozen ponds/lakes/canals both seasons...especially by feb '15.

This is from late Feb 2015 taken from Terrapin Park, east side of the bridge. Have not seen anything close to this since.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Thats also 384 hours away so at 12z it  may be dumping  on NC or gone altogether.

Ha, no stj at 0z to all stj at 12z. I truly loathe LR op solutions at times....just comical the changes run to run. 

[nj2va]

I’m confused - where’s the ridge on this map?

[WxUSAF]

All3 major globals are roughly similar in the D10 time period (basically Jan 1) in suggesting a cutter/lakes storm finally pushes or starts to push the SE ridge down and usher in a cold airmass to at least the center of the country. GFS is most aggressive and fastest. GGEM and Euro are pretty similar and would suggest like Jan 3 or so when we get a good cold push. 

[Scraff]

I’ll buy what the 12z GooFuS is selling for Jan 3-4. I mean literally I’ll pay cold hard moolah.  

[RIC_WX]

12Z GEFS continues to trend warmer in the medium range (next week) and has more or less eliminated the modest cold anomalies previously indicated for NE that maybe could have expanded and bled south.

Irrespective of what the long range progs suggest here, the pattern out west remains remarkably stable through the end of the run.  

[stormy]

2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

Yes, and it shows a gulf low at hr. 384 as opposed to the 6z run which showed a clipper type system getting ready to miss us

In the very unlikely probability of verification. The SER would likely push into the OV or be an Apps. runner.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

12Z GEFS continues to trend warmer in the medium range (next week) and has more or less eliminated the modest cold anomalies previously indicated for NE that maybe could have expanded and bled south.

Irrespective of what the long range progs suggest here, the pattern out west remains remarkably stable through the end of the run.  

Agreed.  Things look better in the LR.  Gotta keep it going.  

[RIC_WX]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

 a dreadful start to the season for the ski resorts.  

 

Appears the temperature rises above freezing on Friday AM and may remain there for...?

I feel terrible for WISP as next week is basically make or break for the season.  I am sure they would rather flush the first 2 weeks of January compared to the last week of December, given the chance.

[StormchaserChuck!]

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I wouldn't be surprised if the NAO starts trending more negative at D10+ in future model runs.. 

[peribonca]

Mjo Is going nowhere.... Stuck in 7 for the foreseeable future.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

 

Nice post.....there will probably be a mid winter reprieve, but I do expect more of that this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The fact that you guys are 9 pages into the January thread on 12/22 says all you need to know about December

[WinterWxLuvr]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The fact that you guys are 9 pages into the January thread on 12/22 says all you need to know about December

It’s how we roll. The March thread is usually up and running before MLK day.