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January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Scraff said:

Then who are we congratulating? Short Pump?? 

No one. Not enough room for the system to amplify along the east coast because of the stronger lead wave and faster trailing wave. Not enough spacing. So the system pretty much washes out. No one gets anything of significance. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No one. Not enough room for the system to amplify along the east coast because of the stronger lead wave and faster trailing wave. Not enough spacing. So the system pretty much washes out. No one gets anything of significance. 

I was kidding, but I hear that. Plenty of time for this to get worked out for better or worse. B)
 

ETA—Happy Hour GooFuS will save us all. Lol. 

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Just now, mattie g said:

I'll take the combination of pretty much all other guidance v. the Euro, though I do realize there are relatively minor differences in a fast flow that can cause relatively big discrepancies among them.

Yeah, it's not a huge difference....the low track is pretty similar on everything.  Just blend it all and its a light event in cold temps for us. 

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4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

it literally hasn't snowed a dusting up here so far this winter, so i'm perfectly ok with that solution.  it didn't look impossibly bad with the lead precip shield still pretty far north.

yes and it wouldn’t take much to adjust back to a decent result but that’s been trending the wrong way since 18z yesterday. If it continues…

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Problem is for those who want to mention it, the "trends" or the actual output, both at the surface and especially at h5 are not in the right direction. 

The reality is it there are a few more moves like that to the euro/more of that, there will be some unhappy folks in thread. Hard to ignore the 12z suite across the board suppressing flow and the influence of the northern piece of energy. 

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7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

it literally hasn't snowed a dusting up here so far this winter, so i'm perfectly ok with that solution.  it didn't look impossibly bad with the lead precip shield still pretty far north.

It will basically be a repeat of yesterday for me, except it will actually stick to the paved surfaces. 

That is, unless it diminishes to a cartopper or dusting.

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On the positive side note the expanse of light snow well NW. problem is there isn’t enough room for the system to be amplifying yet as it makes the jump to the coast. So it jumps way out to the Gulf Stream leaving little energy/forcing behind. It wouldn’t take much to get the low center closer to the coast to be the main one and then suddenly you will see that expensive precip shield have more juice. It’s a relatively small adjustment to get a substantially better outcome. 

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

I'll take the combination of pretty much all other guidance v. the Euro, though I do realize there are relatively minor differences in a fast flow that can cause relatively big discrepancies among them.

Bingo. The smallest change in evolution and shortwave interaction has a major impact on the result in these setups.   

Let’s see what the Ukie Canadian and other models have to say. Euro was definitely meh but hey, at least it snows. Interested to see if meso models pick up on any sort of trend as we get within 48 hours 

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3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Problem is for those who want to mention it, the "trends" or the actual output, both at the surface and especially at h5 are not in the right direction. 

The reality is it there are a few more moves like that to the euro/more of that, there will be some unhappy folks in thread. Hard to ignore the 12z suite across the board suppressing flow and the influence of the northern piece of energy. 

Haven't heard you poo-poo anything recently, so I'm surprised to hear this from you.

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