psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The more suppressive flow won the trade off battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1-2" of fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Then who are we congratulating? Short Pump?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Scraff said: Then who are we congratulating? Short Pump?? No one. Not enough room for the system to amplify along the east coast because of the stronger lead wave and faster trailing wave. Not enough spacing. So the system pretty much washes out. No one gets anything of significance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The more suppressive flow won the trade off battle. In other words the Nina ns won this run, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Still a decent track for the low pressure for our region. I'll roll the dice with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I forgot what option you offered me yesterday but there is that scenario for southern portion of forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Two days off of school for the kids? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 it literally hasn't snowed a dusting up here so far this winter, so i'm perfectly ok with that solution. it didn't look impossibly bad with the lead precip shield still pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 No soup for you! (Or any of us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No one. Not enough room for the system to amplify along the east coast because of the stronger lead wave and faster trailing wave. Not enough spacing. So the system pretty much washes out. No one gets anything of significance. I was kidding, but I hear that. Plenty of time for this to get worked out for better or worse. ETA—Happy Hour GooFuS will save us all. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Scraff said: I was kidding, but I hear that. Plenty of time for this to get worked out for better or worse. After just one model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Sure our region has earned the right to poo poo 1-3" snows.....because we always have great winters down here we are a snow town. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'll take the combination of pretty much all other guidance v. the Euro, though I do realize there are relatively minor differences in a fast flow that can cause relatively big discrepancies among them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nice blend between RGEM, CMC and ICON for the win region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, mattie g said: I'll take the combination of pretty much all other guidance v. the Euro, though I do realize there are relatively minor differences in a fast flow that can cause relatively big discrepancies among them. Yeah, it's not a huge difference....the low track is pretty similar on everything. Just blend it all and its a light event in cold temps for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I'll take the combination of pretty much all other guidance v. the Euro, though I do realize there are relatively minor differences in a fast flow that can cause relatively big discrepancies among them. Prepare for the "i don't like the trends" lecture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: it literally hasn't snowed a dusting up here so far this winter, so i'm perfectly ok with that solution. it didn't look impossibly bad with the lead precip shield still pretty far north. yes and it wouldn’t take much to adjust back to a decent result but that’s been trending the wrong way since 18z yesterday. If it continues… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Nice blend between RGEM, CMC and ICON for the win region wide Certainly not giving up on this threat. We just turned 65 degrees into a foot + of snow in Montclair in 24 hours lol. We can do this! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 yes and it wouldn’t take much to adjust back to a decent result but that’s been trending the wrong way since 18z yesterday. If it continues…On everything? Or just the EURO. Realize it’s a tricky event regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Problem is for those who want to mention it, the "trends" or the actual output, both at the surface and especially at h5 are not in the right direction. The reality is it there are a few more moves like that to the euro/more of that, there will be some unhappy folks in thread. Hard to ignore the 12z suite across the board suppressing flow and the influence of the northern piece of energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, 87storms said: it literally hasn't snowed a dusting up here so far this winter, so i'm perfectly ok with that solution. it didn't look impossibly bad with the lead precip shield still pretty far north. It will basically be a repeat of yesterday for me, except it will actually stick to the paved surfaces. That is, unless it diminishes to a cartopper or dusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I will happily take what the Euro shows, regardless that its not "significant". Snow is snow yall. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 On the positive side note the expanse of light snow well NW. problem is there isn’t enough room for the system to be amplifying yet as it makes the jump to the coast. So it jumps way out to the Gulf Stream leaving little energy/forcing behind. It wouldn’t take much to get the low center closer to the coast to be the main one and then suddenly you will see that expensive precip shield have more juice. It’s a relatively small adjustment to get a substantially better outcome. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: On everything? Or just the EURO. Realize it’s a tricky event regardless I haven’t liked the trends wrt the spacing between waves since yesterday across guidance. The euro has been most consistent in translating that to the surface across its runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: I'll take the combination of pretty much all other guidance v. the Euro, though I do realize there are relatively minor differences in a fast flow that can cause relatively big discrepancies among them. Bingo. The smallest change in evolution and shortwave interaction has a major impact on the result in these setups. Let’s see what the Ukie Canadian and other models have to say. Euro was definitely meh but hey, at least it snows. Interested to see if meso models pick up on any sort of trend as we get within 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Problem is for those who want to mention it, the "trends" or the actual output, both at the surface and especially at h5 are not in the right direction. The reality is it there are a few more moves like that to the euro/more of that, there will be some unhappy folks in thread. Hard to ignore the 12z suite across the board suppressing flow and the influence of the northern piece of energy. Haven't heard you poo-poo anything recently, so I'm surprised to hear this from you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Surprise -PNA/SE ridge It’s going to take another 7/8 days for that pattern to set in. Save depresso for elsewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, mappy said: I will happily take what the Euro shows, regardless that its not "significant". Snow is snow yall. Well said Mappy honestly. It's been 4 years since the snow drought began locally and is now coming to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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