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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Agree with PF, despite the temps the plants are getting really tired now. Tons of chipmunk action. I’m sure they are enjoying these temps. 

This is time of year I find them dead on my porch, my cat gets busy. I'd prefer he concentrate on the mice who have been shitting in my basement but I guess I'll have to do my part.

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51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huh?

It would appear from the screenshot that you did a search for the term which is associated with a male genital malformity.  Google tends to direct ads based on prior searches and we pages visited.  Therefore you can expect to get ads for enlargement, correcting surgeons, etc.

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1 hour ago, klw said:

It would appear from the screenshot that you did a search for the term which is associated with a male genital malformity.  Google tends to direct ads based on prior searches and we pages visited.  Therefore you can expect to get ads for enlargement, correcting surgeons, etc.

Word is, he is interested 

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26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah...   I'm wondering if this so called "Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)"  is their answer to the U.S.'s  "Global Forecast System" .. .but, that sort of 'soft' competition/motivation, if so, isn't really easy to know or determine for obvious reasons. 

The GFS has the computing power now  -all it really needs ( all jokes aside ...almost impossible in this group of malcontents LOL ) is resolution enhancing, and it probably becomes the superior product (..or at least enters that discussion)  because it will be a more universally "domained" tool - so ... in that vision/goal, the Euro gets left behind -

just going off the philosophy deep end here a little.

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49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...   I'm wondering if this so called "Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)"  is their answer to the U.S.'s  "Global Forecast System" .. .but, that sort of 'soft' competition/motivation, if so, isn't really easy to know or determine for obvious reasons. 

The GFS has the computing power now  -all it really needs ( all jokes aside ...almost impossible in this group of malcontents LOL ) is resolution enhancing, and it probably becomes the superior product (..or at least enters that discussion)  because it will be a more universally "domained" tool - so ... in that vision/goal, the Euro gets left behind -

just going off the philosophy deep end here a little.

ECMWF gets the computer upgrade soon. I think the main problem for the GFS has been data assimilation.

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8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Can't remember seeing paper wasps out on October 12th

Not just wasps...  I have wild flowers over here in the trough of the old easement that's not really being used, and there are lots of honey bees and bumble bees probing in and out of them like it's mid July. 

Should all slow down post D 6..7

It's a little unclear how far the pendulum may swing, but that looks like a changing of the guard to me around that ~ time frame.   We have a multi - teleconnector convergence for a colder eastern continent that's been pretty well advertized... in the American cluster.  Though not excessive in SD, the consistency and concerted trajectory among the GEFs members have established +PNA or  modality therein, while they are in maintenance mode keepin/ yo-yoing a -NAO to varying SD

That...usually drops the legs out of a warmer pattern either way.

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not just wasps...  I have wild flowers over here in the trough of the old easement that's not really being used, and there are lots of honey bees and bumble bees probing in and out of them like it's mid July. 

Should all slow down post D 6..7

It's a little unclear how far the pendulum may swing, but that looks like a changing of the guard to me around that ~ time frame.   We have a multi - teleconnector convergence for a colder eastern continent that's been pretty well advertized... in the American cluster.  Though not excessive in SD, the consistency and concerted trajectory among the GEFs members have established +PNA or  modality therein, while they are in maintenance mode keepin/ yo-yoing a -NAO to varying SD

That...usually drops the legs out of a warmer pattern either way.

So you’re saying snow is coming 

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Yet ... individual storm/event profiling have been increasingly more proficient 'in bucket' producers. 

I almost wonder...if by "correcting" for "exaggerated" PWAT ...does that make it more accurate say ...in the means bell-curved events, but now it misses the NJ/Manhattan ..coastal CT rain bombs, or the 40" snow swatch from N of the Cap district of eastern NY to middle NH last December.

Once considered freaks ...how many freaks can we sustain before we just admit to a freakshow

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I will say, I enjoy being able to toss the euro. Years ago, when the euro had something at day 5, you paid attn even when other guidance had nothing. But now, when other guidance has nothing and euro shows 2" of rain....we toss. Euro overall is a good model, but the GFS and Canadian, UKMO etc have gotten better.

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20 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Question....  has any "official" reporting station in New England or for that matter the Northeast reported a 32F for a low yet.  I know a few weather stations like Alex's  31.9F have had a touch of frost but anything official?

 

CAR had their first frost (36F or lower) on 9/29, and CON had theirs on 10/1, but no freezes yet. Gonna be an easy frost/freeze program this year for the New England WFOs because by the time we have first frosts and freezes the growing season will officially be over. After this week all but 4 of the 22 climo sites in CT that have published frost/freeze normals will be past their average first freeze date, so I imagine northern New England is weeks behind schedule.

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