SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: quibbling over a high below 60 in mid october, lol. on oct 16 1944 ewr had a low of 31 and in 2009 the high was 46. today is the 13th day in a row with lows above 60... Yes that's how pathetic things have been. I think it'll be easier if we just recognize it's gonna be like this every "fall". Our climate is warm & wet. Time to deal with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Agreed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Wonderful day to soak in an October tan, yesterday also was phenomenal but the biting flies were out in full force here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yes that's how pathetic things have been. I think it'll be easier if we just recognize it's gonna be like this every "fall". Our climate is warm & wet. Time to deal with it This cool down is down to 3 days. That is the funny thing after all that. Tues thru Friday look down right warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: This cool down is down to 3 days. That is the funny thing after all that. Tues thru Friday look down right warm Yep. Tuesday upper 60s to near 70. Wednesday and thursday mid 70s, and near 70 on friday. A very warm week except for 1 normal day on monday. And the cooldown next weekend only takes us back down to near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Me thinks the severe threat will be greater than expected. Getting ample sunshine with temps near 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 78 here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Temps on the rise once the hazy sunshine finally broke through. 77 dew 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 hours ago, binbisso said: I'm a winter weather lover however We are far from Winter. You're crazy if you haven't loved the weather the last 6 weeks. highs in the seventies and lows around 60 perfect. it could stay this way till Thanksgiving for all I care then we can flip I’d prefer less humidity. Be nice to open up the windows at night without the clamminess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 A Nothing Burger when it gets here?......Especially with the sun already very low by say 6pm. Maybe some action aloft gives us a show. As far as the T's for the rest of month starting tomorrow they are averaging >>>> 56*(50/62) or just about Normal. So Oct. may end at +2.5 to +3.0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 You know that the cold air will be very limited in North America with 5 sigma jet maxes in the Pacific. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Going to under perform today temp wise with these clouds. Also under performed yesterday, vs forecasts on this forum. Supposed to be widespread 80s right? Not that it really matters… it’s warm I take it back! Cleared and gorgeous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Me thinks the severe threat will be greater than expected. Getting ample sunshine with temps near 80 We are getting underway with a squall line now forming up west of Allentown and moving to the east and northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Line rolling through my backyard now, definitely not performing up to spec with maybe some 30-40 MPH gusts here just a few minutes ago. Sky is also quickly brightening again in advance of the bigger wave of showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Just had a wind gust to 33 mph with the approach of this squall line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 After the cool down starting tonight and lasting thru Tuesday morning, the mild weather returns but not nearly as warm as this week. Looks like 60s or low 70s in the day and 40s and 50s at night. Pretty nice. Maybe some frost Monday night in the coldest places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 hours ago, jfklganyc said: This cool down is down to 3 days. That is the funny thing after all that. Tues thru Friday look down right warm It does get warmer this week but it'll be different than the last few days. Lows will be a little more seasonable and plus the dewpoint will not be in the 60s like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Just now, JerseyWx said: It does get warmer this week but it'll be different than the last few days. Lows will be a little more seasonable and plus the dewpoint will not be in the 60s like today. I'll take 65-70F with low humidity for the rest of October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 First line had decent winds. Lost power due to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: You know that the cold air will be very limited in North America with 5 sigma jet maxes in the Pacific. Which is typical for the Fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 On 9/17/2021 at 12:24 PM, bluewave said: It’s always interesting to see how the EPS weeklies compare with the SEAS5 seasonal forecast. The Euro seasonal was picking up on the October blocking potential from the forecast issued back in July. South based blocks can still have above normal temperatures in the Northeast like we saw last winter. So the latitude of the block is important. Early July forecast for October seems like it did a good job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: seems like it did a good job Yeah, one of the most perfect October La Niña 500 mb patterns that we have ever seen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Had a severe thunder storm warning. Wimpy storm. Not much rain. Was more windy 2 hours before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 The temperature rose into the middle 70s at the New York Botanical Garden. Inside, the chrysanthemum show is underway. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Gulf of Maine SSTs are the warmest on record for mid-October. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: it's 66 outside, my thermostat is about 72, and i feel pretty cool. global warming has broken my biological thermometer Good evening Will. My biological thermometer hasn’t gone up in quite a awhile, global warming notwithstanding. As always …… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Some additional showers are likely, especially before midnight. Behind the frontal passage responsible for the showers and earlier thunderstorms, readings will return to near normal levels tomorrow and Monday. Warmer air will likely return near the middle of next week. Newark reached 70° for the 170th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 2007 for the 4th most days on record. Newark also reached 80° for the 115th time this year. That is the 2nd highest number of such days. At 11:59 pm yesterday, Bismarck saw the temperature dip to 32° under clear skies and a calm wind. That is the latest first freeze on record for Bismarck. The old record was October 14, 2008. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +28.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today. On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.416 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: they make pills for that now Implants also if you want movie stardom. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 17, 2021 Author Share Posted October 17, 2021 Raining decently at the moment. Probably end up with .25 to .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 The first line through at 6pm was a flop by me. Only looked menacing. A few more hours to go for the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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