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September Discobs 2021


George BM
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23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z 3K NAM brings some decent thunderstorm rains later today and overnight.

0E5FD8AB-5867-429C-81E5-677F4E103AF0.png

That presentation by the 12Z 3K NAM looks strange for the Eastern areas, not to mention total rainfall is pathetic. 

Example, most of Delware gets nothing. except for an East to West stripe near Dover, DE.  

Areas in the FFW . although they will flood with much less rainfall, are still only in the area of .25 inches or under. 

General coverage is very eratic.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

That presentation by the 12Z 3K NAM looks strange for the Eastern areas, not to mention total rainfall is pathetic. 

Example, most of Delware gets nothing. except for an East to West stripe near Dover, DE.  

Areas in the FFW . although they will flood with much less rainfall, are still only in the area of .25 inches or under. 

General coverage is very eratic.  

 

 

       That NAM3 run thinks that most of the convection will die before reaching Delaware - it has a few scattered cells moving across the state much later tonight.     It's not an unreasonable solution that convection will not be widespread at the unfavorable time of day.     That said, there are other CAMs that generate enough forcing ahead of the front to compensate for the limited late-night instability, and they have more widespread and heavier rain in eastern areas later tonight.  

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2 hours ago, high risk said:

       That NAM3 run thinks that most of the convection will die before reaching Delaware - it has a few scattered cells moving across the state much later tonight.     It's not an unreasonable solution that convection will not be widespread at the unfavorable time of day.     That said, there are other CAMs that generate enough forcing ahead of the front to compensate for the limited late-night instability, and they have more widespread and heavier rain in eastern areas later tonight.  

Thanks.

FYI 

a rogue storm hit Middletown 30  minutes ago.  

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As we lose a litte more sunlight everyday, along with mid September climo,  it would suggest a downward trend regarding temps the next couple of weeks, however,  the new normal September has us climbing higher and higher.  Yuck !   

 

From Mount Holly, this says it all.......

<  

 Strong southwest flow at 850mb
will bring in much warmer air and daytime temps should have no
problem rising into the mid to upper 80s through the midweek period.
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15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Come on…you should know better than to assume that hitting 90 in mid-September is anything new.

I’m so done with it 80s, let alone 90s. Was in New England over the weekend and had a couple mornings drop below 50. More of that please.

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Flood Watch issued for northern suburbs.

611 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Maryland, north central
  Maryland, northeast Maryland and northern Maryland, including the
  following areas: in central Maryland, Central and Southeast
  Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard and
  Northwest Montgomery. In north central Maryland, Carroll and
  Frederick MD. In northeast Maryland, Cecil. In northern Maryland,
  Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Southeast Harford and
  Southern Baltimore.

* Until 2 AM EDT Thursday.

* Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight. Average
  rainfall amounts of one-half to one inch is expected. However,
  thunderstorms will contain very heavy rainfall with rainfall rates
  around 1 to 3 inches per hour. Localized rainfall amounts of 2 to
  4 inches are possible.

* Heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time may cause creeks
  and streams to rapidly rise out of their banks as well as the
  potential for flash-flooding in urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Flood Watch issued for northern suburbs.

611 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

Mount Holly just added Northern Delaware to a FFW

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
604 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

DEZ001-090800-
/O.EXB.KPHI.FF.A.0010.000000T0000Z-210909T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle-
Including the cities of Wilmington
604 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of northern Delaware...
  including the following area...New Castle.

* Until 4 AM EDT Thursday.

* Thunderstorms with heavy rain are forecast to move through the
  region this evening into the overnight period.  Heavy rainfall of
  one to two inches may quickly lead to flooding of flood prone and
  other low-lying areas due to rapid runoff.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Come on…you should know better than to assume that hitting 90 in mid-September is anything new.

I can dream though. 

I imagine surf temps will be like the last few years, maintining above 70 F. deep into September, maybe even early October.  

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49 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yeah…no models has northern MD getting that much rain. 

        While the location of the max is jumping around (as it often does), the last several consecutive HRRR runs all have a 2-4" max somewhere in north-central or northern Maryland. 

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1 hour ago, Mrs.J said:

Absolutely fantastic lighting going on right now to my West. 

761483C5-763B-421C-8E17-29FA95C4E082.thumb.png.63b5102c7f502ba013e73cd2254a0f4b.png

Same for me! The Gettysburg and north part was booming. Constant flashes, anvil crawlers, even some shooting out the top. 

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  • George BM changed the title to September Discobs 2021
  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

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