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Major Hurricane Ida


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2 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

Will the shape of the coastline as Ida approaches cause any wobbles left or right, and any contraction in the eye  due to frictional effects?

It may very well bounce west a bit since that is its heading

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1 minute ago, Taylorsweather said:

Will the shape of the coastline as Ida approaches cause any wobbles left or right, and any contraction in the eye  due to frictional effects?

Frictional effects often pull hurricanes right of their extrapolated track just before landfall. Doesn’t always happen though, and that part of LA is extremely low and flat. Hoping not with Ida as that would be worse for NOLA.

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132mb vortex message:

 

URNT12 KNHC 291215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL092021
A. 29/11:56:10Z
B. 28.47 deg N 089.57 deg W
C. 700 mb 2519 m
D. 932 mb
E. 230 deg 34 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 104 kt
I. 059 deg 12 nm 11:51:30Z
J. 159 deg 138 kt
K. 059 deg 10 nm 11:52:30Z
L. 105 kt
M. 295 deg 10 nm 12:01:00Z
N. 018 deg 133 kt
O. 298 deg 12 nm 12:02:00Z
P. 9 C / 3038 m
Q. 23 C / 3052 m
R. 3 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF305 1409A IDA    OB 11
MAX FL WIND 138 KT 059 / 10 NM 11:52:30Z

 

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Philippe Papin

@pppapin

Unfortunately trends on KLIX radar do *not* suggest #Ida is leveling off. Instead the eyewall has become more symmetric w/ the west side becoming more solid. Earlier attempt at a “moat” around the eyewall also looks to have filled back in.

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think that's fairly normal in the strongest, right? The flight level winds and surface winds are close with the big max in between. 

At least some of them from my recollection, yeah. I recall reading some papers on those two in particular and how normal FL wind reduction to the surface wasn't always appropriate. 

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Ida is really pulling off another Hurricane Michael with intensification likely to occur all the way into landfall. Given continued remarkable pressure falls, expect one of these passes by HH will eventually yield category 5 SFMR data. 

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