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September 2021


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48 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I don't have Newark's monthly and annual snowfall on hand so I'll use NYC snowfall after Newark having 40 days 90 or higher and above average snowfall...

1959-60..above average

1983-84...average

1993-94...way above average...

2002-03...way above average...

2010-11...way above average...

2016-17...above average...

2021-22...???

......................................

two other 40 days 90 or above years were 1988-89, 1991-92...they had below average snowfall ...

The increased blocking and milder winter temperatures have worked wonders for our snowfall since 2002-2003. 

18BB7AD1-7065-494F-9B9C-C7E183F21F91.png.8de3b35a675313ca8d6d5c2487ec55c3.png

AEDF0F2D-41D5-4275-A0F1-1791329B37B7.png.bf8936e02ebcf0313715f0470faee574.png

 

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The increased blocking and milder winter temperatures have worked wonders for our snowfall since 2002-2003. 

18BB7AD1-7065-494F-9B9C-C7E183F21F91.png.8de3b35a675313ca8d6d5c2487ec55c3.png

AEDF0F2D-41D5-4275-A0F1-1791329B37B7.png.bf8936e02ebcf0313715f0470faee574.png

 

Definitely shows the influence of the SE Ridge here too. Luckily for us we’re in the contrast zone between that and the colder Midwest temps, and can take advantage of later blooming Miller B’s. 

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26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Definitely shows the influence of the SE Ridge here too. Luckily for us we’re in the contrast zone between that and the colder Midwest temps, and can take advantage of later blooming Miller B’s. 

Yeah, we needed the strong SE ridge to boost the SSTs for heavier snows. Luckily, the years that the SE Ridge ran the table without blocking like 2012 and 2020 were in the minority. Some of our best snowfalls have occurred a month after the record SE Ridge was replaced by blocking. The historic January 30” blizzard followed the historic +13.3 SE Ridge December 2015. The historic February 2018 SE Ridge and 80° at Newark was followed by the March historic 30” snows on Long Island.

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(68/73), or +6.

Month to date is  71.9[Normal] at its midpoint.     Convienent.

Could be  73.0[+2.1] by the 23rd.     More likely 72.0[+1.1].

74-78 today, e. wind, rain? late.

EURO drops off by the 24th., but the GFS goes to the 29th, it seems.

Reached 80 here yesterday.

72*(78%RH) here at 6am, some overcast.       77*  by Noon.

looks like we warm back up after any transitory cooldown in the Sep 23 - 25 period.  We'll see if the guidance continues to show warmer for and by the final week of Sep. (9/227th

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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Sat 9/18 looks like the next shot at 90 for EWR, next week could feature too much onshore flow.  

EWR is the only spot that could pull up 90s from now on and even that looks dicey. 

Models looking a lot more troughy late September so we'd have to have a monster heat ridge in October to get more 90s. Unlikely but not impossible. 

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

EWR is the only spot that could pull up 90s from now on and even that looks dicey. 

Models looking a lot more troughy late September so we'd have to have a monster heat ridge in October to get more 90s. Unlikely but not impossible. 

I'd be OK with no 90s in October ever again, thanks. 

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The frontal system that produced scattered showers and thundershowers yesterday and today will move back toward the region tomorrow. As a result, some additional showers are likely.

A warm September outcome remains on track. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days (for example, the 9/1-7 anomaly was -2.5° in New York City and the 9/1-10 anomaly was -1.6° in New York City), September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +9.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.131 today.

On September 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.022 (RMM). The September 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.897 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.8° (1.6° above normal).

 

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we needed the strong SE ridge to boost the SSTs for heavier snows. Luckily, the years that the SE Ridge ran the table without blocking like 2012 and 2020 were in the minority. Some of our best snowfalls have occurred a month after the record SE Ridge was replaced by blocking. The historic January 30” blizzard followed the historic +13.3 SE Ridge December 2015. The historic February 2018 SE Ridge and 80° at Newark was followed by the March historic 30” snows on Long Island.

 

 

 

wait Long Island had 30" of snow in March? Not here lol

Why is March snow so localized compared to say January snows?  Maybe it's because with the higher sun angle it's much harder for urbanized areas to accumulate snow in March?

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wait Long Island had 30" of snow in March? Not here lol

Why is March snow so localized compared to say January snows?  Maybe it's because with the higher sun angle it's much harder for urbanized areas to accumulate snow in March?

 

Well in the NYC area, the further you are from Midtown Manhattan, the more snow you get in March. The boundary temps play a huge role in March since the sun angle is so much worse.

March 2018 is a great example. Manhattan got 6-8" accumulation from the last storm that month, while Suffolk got 18"+

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The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(63/77), or +3-----way down from recent days.

Month to date is  72[+0.3].        Should be about 71.7[+1.4] by the 25th.     

Reached 78 here yesterday.

Today 74-78, e.wind to n.,cloudy/breaks, drizzle?

71*(91%RH) here at 6am, overcast.        74* at Noon.       78*(77%RH) at 2pm.       76* at 4pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and still cool. Some widely scattered showers are possible. Most of the region will see no measurable rainfall. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 80°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 76.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 77.4°; 15-Year: 78.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.6°; 15-Year: 79.4°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer.

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