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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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IMO. how models initialize strength right now is pretty useless for the overall picture here. Until we see how

1) Henri fully responds to the stronger shear through today

2) How much Henri intensifies when it moves into a more favorable environment...and it is this overall which will large depict what happens.

The only thing model initialization is going to impact is {model} evolution of the storm. 

All we know right now is a range of possibilities. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO. how models initialize strength right now is pretty useless for the overall picture here. Until we see how

1) Henri fully responds to the stronger shear through today

This is what I'm watching. Tonight's updates will have people panicking or weenies saying "it can still ______."

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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm going to wager that we probably see a consensus from the GEFS start to shift east and this is purely based on the intensity guidance (which I'm not going to take at 100% face value) but there is pretty strong consensus of peak intensity with only a few members going into cat 2/borderline cat 3 strength. However, there is a bit of a spread as to how strong of a cat 1 this could get. 

08L_intensity_latest.png

Intensity guidance seems to have underestimated storm strength the last several years although if my recollection is right they have mostly been in the Gulf.

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1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

This is what I'm watching. Tonight's updates will have people panicking or weenies saying "it can still ______."

yeah until we have a clearer picture of Henri's strength/structure some of the details being focused on are pretty minute. Like Ray said, the fetish regarding model initialization strength is very strange.  

1 minute ago, wkd said:

Intensity guidance seems to have underestimated storm strength the last several years although if my recollection is right they have mostly been in the Gulf.

Agreed, which is why I' not 100% taking this at face value. It can be thrown out the window any time there is an opportunity for RI but I don't think we'll see any RI with this...despite the SSTA's being a few degrees C above-average they're still only around +28C to +29C which is a bit below the threshold that you would like to see for RI. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

yeah until we have a clearer picture of Henri's strength/structure some of the details being focused on are pretty minute. Like Ray said, the fetish regarding model initialization strength is very strange.  

Agreed, which is why I' not 100% taking this at face value. It can be thrown out the window any time there is an opportunity for RI but I don't think we'll see any RI with this...despite the SSTA's being a few degrees C above-average they're still only around +28C to +29C which is a bit below the threshold that you would like to see for RI. 

I get why the EURO yesterday was giving people pause...it wasn't even showing a storm, or a very faint representation of one....but this "it initialized at 1001mb and its already 991mb" is asinine. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get why the EURO yesterday was giving people pause...it wasn't even showing a storm, or a very faint representation of one....but this "it initialized at 1001mb and its already 991mb" is asinine. 

When it comes to tropical I put very little stock in the Euro. It's been pretty horrendous the past few years in that department. 

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This is a great visualization on what to watch for. Henri is holding right now because both the low and mid level vortexes are robust but shear is analyzed at nearly 32kts currently. Decoupling could have a significant impact on later intensification and track.

 

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8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro looks much more realistic with regard to Henri’s organization at initialization and hour 24 so far. 

I'm back at page 10 giggling, then rolling eyes....then scratching forehead over post - nice... 

But, they probably went in and force the Euro initialization by plugging in numbers.   When is that organization going to admit that their product is an interpolation more so than an organic physical process, a suspicion that gets exposed at the boundaries of the domain like tropics and so forth...  Heh - sumpin like that.

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
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