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Not much rain on the 12z Euro through the next 7 days. The bulk of the rainfall is day 8-10. But that is the lowest skill portion of the OP run. It could be possible if we get a frontal stall on the western  periphery of the WAR.  

71C84AC5-4C2B-4676-A2B6-EB155ADFB0C4.gif.b4e3a7c1bceb38795d5bb62e0186f9a2.gif

C024A555-BA52-44F7-9527-4F2C6CB2A822.gif.1e5c8a5c189f04afd2383d2d8a79809c.gif

 

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Mount Holly has similar thoughts.

Upton: 

Friday could be interesting meteorologically speaking. Global models
are beginning to depict a broad low pressure system near North
Carolina forming off the decaying front from earlier in the week.
This inverted trough rides the synoptic flow north nearing Long
Island Friday. With it precipitable water values increase to around
1.5-1.7 inches. Depending on the nature of the system and its
proximity, southern New York could see increased rain chances for
Friday.

Attention shifts over the weekend to the trough and frontal system
deepening near the Ohio River valley. This could be a fairly a
traditional frontal system with CAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg and
unidirectional shear meaning that strong to severe thunderstorms may
be possible. The exact timing remains uncertain, but current
guidance is hinting towards a Sunday into Monday timeframe.
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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Wet period coming up on the GFS starting next week.  Hopefully its wrong. 

18z GFS said get the ark ready :lmao:

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Doesn’t appear the 11 year hot summer will repeat this year. This is shaping up to be more of the last four years. Humid,  high dews, drenching rains when they come and average highs around 85-90. And it’s not going to be very warm again this week, I’m seeing mostly 70s, with cool starts. 

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A number of cities reached the lower 90s this afternoon. 90° readings included: Baltimore: 93°; Harrisburg: 91°; Newark: 90°; and, Philadelphia: 90°.

90° Days for Select Cities (through June 20):

Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 9 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 8 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 6 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 7 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 3 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 6 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 11 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 8 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 6 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 7 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

It will likely be somewhat cooler tomorrow with a greater risk of some showers and thundershowers as Claudette passes well south of the region. The end of the week and coming weekend could be unsettled.

Out West, an extreme heatwave began to ease in the Southwest. High temperatures included:

Blythe, CA: 119°
Bullhead City, AZ: 117°
Death Valley, CA: 124° ***June record 6th consecutive 124° day***
Las Vegas: 112°
Needles, CA: 118°
Palm Springs, CA: 118°
Phoenix: 115° ***Record 6th consecutive 115° day***
Tucson: 109°

In large part on account of Phoenix's concluding extreme heat event, there is an implied 69% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -16.38 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.474 today.

On June 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.073 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.198 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (1.7° above normal).

 

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90 degree days for Newark NJ since 1933...

year.....total...cons...max...total 100 days...

1933.....18.....….5.....101.....1

1934.....18...…...5.....100.....1

1935.....14...…...3...….96

1936.....22...…...5.....104.....2

1937.....22...…...5.....100.....1

1938.....18...…...3...….95

1939.....24...…...3......95

 

1940.....15...…...5......99

1941.....27...…...4......97

1942.....15...…...2......98

1943.....31...…...4.....102.....2

1944.....39...…...8.....102.....4

1945.....24...…...5...….99

1946.....11...…...3......95

1947.....22...…...4......99

1948.....26...…...6.....103.....2

1949.....36...…...8.....105.....8

 

1950.....18...…...4...….98

1951.....18...…...3...….96

1952.....31...…...6.....102.....1

1953.....32...….11.....105.....6

1954.....18...…...3.....103.....2

1955.....32...…...6.....101.....4

1956.....14...…...5...….99

1957.....28...…...5.....101.....1

1958.....21...…...3...….96

1959.....40...…...5.....100.....1

 

1960.....13...…...4...….94

1961.....34...…...4...….98

1962.....14...…...4...….98

1963.....20...…...6.....100.....1

1964.....26...…...4...….99

1965.....26...…...4...….97

1966.....33...…...5.....105.....5

1967...….7...…...3...….95

1968.....23...…...4...….98

1969.....15...…...3...….96

 

1970.....22...…...5...….94

1971.....22...…...5...….96

1972.....21...….12...….96

1973.....31...….11.....100.....1

1974.....18...…...4...….98

1975.....12...…...4...….98

1976.....14...…...3...….93

1977.....26...…...9.....102.....2

1978.....16...…...5...….98

1979.....20...…...5...….96

 

1980.....27...…...4.....101.....2

1981.....21...…...8...….98

1982.....12...…...4.....100.....1

1983.....40...…...7...….99

1984.....22...…...5...….97

1985.....11...…...3...….97

1986.....22...…...5.....100.....1

1987.....37...…...8...….98

1988.....43...….20.....101.....5

1989.....27...…...6...….99

 

1990.....26...…...4...….98

1991.....41...…...7.....102.....2

1992.....22...…...3...….98

1993.....49...….10.....105.....9

1994.....39...…...5.....102.....2

1995.....33...….12.....104.....1

1996...….9...…...3...….99

1997.....20...…...6.....101.....2

1998.....21...…...4...….98

1999.....33...…...8.....103.....3

 

2000.....16...…...4...….96

2001.....22...…...5.....105.....3

2002.....41...….10.....100.....2

2003.....20...…...5...….95

2004.....13...…...2...….97

2005.....37...…...5.....102.....3

2006.....31...….10.....101.....3

2007.....21...…...4...….97

2008.....22...…...7...….99

2009.....11...…...7...….95

 

2010.....54...….14.....103.....4

2011.....31...…...5.....108.....4

2012.....33...….11.....104.....3

2013.....25...…...7.....101.....2

2014.....15...…...3...….96

2015.....35...…...9...….98

2016.....40...…...8...….99

2017.....22...…...4...….99

2018.....36...…...6...….98

2019.....27...…...4...….99...

2020.....31.........6......96...

2021.....11.........5......97

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There goes the neighborhood............ I mean the Holiday WE.       Big change from last run.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

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5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

There goes the neighborhood............ I mean the Holiday WE.       Big change from last run.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

We have seen the GFS do this plenty of times in the longer range so it could be and probably is fantasy. I am more concerned with precipitation and amounts over the next 7 days more than anything else.

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