June 2021

[STORMANLI]

Thanks for pictures.  Too many clouds here.

[jm1220]

I woke up early to try to catch the eclipse but unfortunately it was too cloudy here to get a good look. 

[CIK62]

Look Ma!     No 90's.!         I still say late June to late July will be way AN by the Rossby Wave outlook.         Separately, when the hurricane season starts, JB feels the Newfoundland Whirl will be directing storms into the Northeast.

[Brian5671]

JB bullish on the EC from NC to New England-had a good post on it the other day with a bunch of analogs to back it up.    He's always a weenie though so have to take it for what it's worth.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Yes. Sunday pm storms and rain and perhaps periods of variable cloudiness Saturday with hung up front to our south.  It could improve (hopefully) as we get close>

That’s not Friday to Tuesday brother. The weekend will be excellent, maybe some rain later on Sunday 

[RippleEffect]

How’s the weather looking for this Saturday?

[nycwinter]

57 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I woke up early to try to catch the eclipse but unfortunately it was too cloudy here to get a good look. 

when it was about 5:20 the sun was rising i could see the reflection of sun off some buildings in nyc after that the sky got cloudier. it always seem to be cloudy in the nyc area when some eclipse is happening it is never clear.

[dWave]

57 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

when it was about 5:20 the sun was rising i could see the reflection of sun off some buildings in nyc after that the sky got cloudier. it always seem to be cloudy in the nyc area when some eclipse is happening it is never clear.

I think 2024 there will be a solar eclipse, over 90% here, in early afternoon. You wont need a clear view of the horizon at that time of day.

[HailMan06]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

JB bullish on the EC from NC to New England-had a good post on it the other day with a bunch of analogs to back it up.    He's always a weenie though so have to take it for what it's worth.

As much as I’d root for a local TC (yes I may be in the minority) anytime you mention JB I’d use my Galileo thermometer before that guy.

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

As much as I’d root for a local TC (yes I may be in the minority) anytime you mention JB I’d use my Galileo thermometer before that guy.

I need 2 weather repeats before I die.   Blizzard of 1888 and Hurricane of 1938

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I need 2 weather repeats before I die.   Blizzard of 1888 and Hurricane of 1938

wasnt snowicane Feb 2010 a repeat of the 1888 blizzard?  Amounts were very similar too.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The new mesonet stations show that LGA isn’t some isolated case. Areas to the south in interior Brooklyn and Queens were as hot or hotter.  

 

 

EWR and LGA have been spot on with this heatwave. The new micronet stations show how accurate those airport readings are. The only station in this part of the country that has flawed temperature data is Central Park due to the improper sitting in the deep shade. 
 

High temperatures 6-7….6-6….6-5

LGA………………………..93…..95……94

Astoria…………………..93……94…..93

Corona…………………..94……98…..95

Brownsville……………88……95……93

Fresh Kills……………..95……96……93

EWR……………………….95……97……95

NYC……………………….91…….92……89

•  

I just find it really hard to believe that 2020 was anywhere near as hot as 2010 was, you can see that with how few its 90 degree highs are compared to 2010.  The other thing is I always notice a significant bump up in temps after I leave Manhattan and drive into Queens through the Midtown tunnel.  The temps in that area are higher than they are in any other part of the city.  From about the part of Queens right outside the Midtown tunnel through about the Grand Central Parkway.  There's some park with a lake in it  just off the GCP and after that point, the temps start dropping again.

 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wasnt snowicane Feb 2010 a repeat of the 1888 blizzard?  Amounts were very similar too.

 

it's a close match....but  Not here.   Feb 2010 was mostly rain here. We got 3 inches of slop at the end....   The rain/snow line in 2010 was further west for 1888 it was well east of New Haven, CT

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I just find it really hard to believe that 2020 was anywhere near as hot as 2010 was, you can see that with how few its 90 degree highs are compared to 2010.  The other thing is I always notice a significant bump up in temps after I leave Manhattan and drive into Queens through the Midtown tunnel.  The temps in that area are higher than they are in any other part of the city.  From about the part of Queens right outside the Midtown tunnel through about the Grand Central Parkway.  There's some park with a lake in it  just off the GCP and after that point, the temps start dropping again.

 

When you take the average of NY coastal climate division #4, it was the 2nd warmest behind 2010.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/1/7/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

JJA average 

201006 - 201008	75.2°F	126	3.5°F
202006 - 202008	74.5°F	125	2.8°F
201606 - 201608	74.2°F	124	2.5°F
200506 - 200508	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
201106 - 201108	73.9°F	123	2.2°F
199906 - 199908	73.7°F	121	2.0°F
201206 - 201208	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201806 - 201808	73.4°F	120	1.7°F
201906 - 201908	73.2°F	118	1.5°F
201506 - 201508	73.1°F	117	1.4°F
194906 - 194908	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200606 - 200608	73.0°F	116	1.3°F
200206 - 200208	72.9°F	114	1.2°F
201306 - 201308	72.9°F	114	1.2°F

July

 

 

201007	78.5°F	126	4.6°F
202007	77.8°F	125	3.9°F
201307	77.7°F	124	3.8°F
199907	77.4°F	123	3.5°F
201107	77.4°F	123	3.5°F
201907	77.3°F	121	3.4°F
195507	77.0°F	120	3.1°F
201207	76.7°F	119	2.8°F
199407	76.6°F	118	2.7°F
201607	76.5°F	117	2.6°F
195207	76.3°F	116	2.4°F

[doncat]

A much more pleasant 75/56 currently with an east wind.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

JB bullish on the EC from NC to New England-had a good post on it the other day with a bunch of analogs to back it up.    He's always a weenie though so have to take it for what it's worth.

When is he not bullish? Whether it's a blizzard or hurricane he'll hype the crap out of it. 

[bluewave]

The record heat pulls back to the historic drought areas out West for mid-June.

[dWave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I just find it really hard to believe that 2020 was anywhere near as hot as 2010 was, you can see that with how few its 90 degree highs are compared to 2010.  The other thing is I always notice a significant bump up in temps after I leave Manhattan and drive into Queens through the Midtown tunnel.  The temps in that area are higher than they are in any other part of the city.  From about the part of Queens right outside the Midtown tunnel through about the Grand Central Parkway.  There's some park with a lake in it  just off the GCP and after that point, the temps start dropping again.

 

That makes sense, western Queens is very dense and urbanized, and becomes a little less so the futher east you get. Also around LIC you have about 12 miles of land including the most urbanized parts of Brooklyn separating you from the Atlantic, once you get out to GCP, your lined up with Jamaica Bay and now you only have about 6 miles btwn you and the water.

I feel similar about Manhattan, during the day it does feel a little less hot compared to just outside of it, I think its cuz there so much shade from tall bldgs. Just out of there esp Queens and the Bx its still very urbanized but without all the shade, so much more sun reaches the ground to bake you.  I do noticed those temps really peak on and near roads like 278/BQE, Bruckner, Deegan, Cross Bronx. That kinda what alot of NYC is like away from the water or in a park.

[gravitylover]

It's just wonderful out here right now. 

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail tomorrow into the upcoming weekend. However, some warming is likely on Sunday and Monday.

Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Based on the accumulated data and latest guidance, the June 1-10 anomaly will likely average 5.5° to 6.5° above normal. Through 7 pm, the preliminary June 1-10 anomaly in New York City is 6.5° above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +1.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.434 today.

On June 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.746 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.871 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

With Phoenix likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

[lee59]

I kind a like this back and forth between hot and cool.

[wdrag]

Review time:  Despite only light amounts of showers expected in parts of our area between now and midday Saturday ( models were too far north a week ago on what will happen south of I78 today), we still did okay., Here's some amounts (3 day)---except e LI.

 

Also the weekend of the 19th-20th seems to be favoring a dying tropical intrusion up this way. No details yet and no topic since it's so far all in a seemingly normal less than 3" range for an event.

 

[LoboLeader1]

56 here currently, at least my AC catches a break for a while.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(63/81), or just about Normal.

No 90's? and little rain for the next 10 days.

Month to date is  75.4[+6.5].       Should be about 73.9[+3.5] by the 19th.

65*(61%RH) here at 6am, overcast.          64* at 7am.           71* by 11am.

[uofmiami]

55 this morning for the low, refreshing!

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. Some locations could pick up showers, especially south of New York City. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 69°

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with high temperatures in the middle 70s.

Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature will likely reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period, which would tie or break daily records. The potential for even higher temperatures exists, as a 1 standard deviation increase from the modeled outcome would produce peak high temperatures around 118° at the height of the extreme heatwave. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

[bluewave]

This was the warmest first 10 days of June on record at Newark. But the maximum temperature of 97° came in lower than the 99° in 1999 and 102 in 2011. So a continuation of the difficulty in reaching 100° in recent years. The 100° temperatures  were located to our west where the most extreme  drought conditions were located. The record heat and ridging will pull back to the West during mid-June intensifying the drought conditions there. While the drought locations and intensity is different from 1999 and 2011, those years both featured record heat in July for our area. Perhaps this means we can make a run on 100° in July. But we have seen how the maximum temperatures in early June were 2 to 5°lower than 1999 and 2011. So it will be interesting to see how July turns out. As for the tropics, the first potential for this year looks to be near the TX/LA Western Gulf region. This would follow the recent stuck pattern of cooler and wetter in that region undercutting the ridge across the north. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 10	Maximum Temperature
1	2021-06-10	77.1	97
2	1999-06-10	76.0	99
3	2011-06-10	75.9	102

[FPizz]

54 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

55 this morning for the low, refreshing!

Clouds moved in here so only got down to 61.  Still feels nice though.  

[lee59]

62 degrees and cloudy here. Radar shows rain not to far away. Not expecting rain here but it wouldn't hurt as we got only  1/10 of an inch  over the past week.

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 65 and mainly cloudy.  With the front hung up to our south clouds (Sat) and showers (sun) will likely spoil what had previously been a California like weather weekend.  A bit warmer Sun - Tue before a  few days of cooler weather Wed (6/16) and Thu (6/17). 

Rockies ridge does continue to be forecast at exceptional levels the next 7  dayas.   Strong to record heat will build out west in the deserts and into the plains.   Pieces of that heat will begin to eject east laster next week Fri 6/19. As we hover around the rim of the expanding ridge.  Next shot at 90s when we arent too stormy  Sat 6/19 - 6/23.  Beyond there models do hint at EC ridging building back as the WC ridge relaxes east.  Id say those ridges out west like to get anchored there so best way for prolonged heat until that ridge moves east is the WAR  expanding west and the two ridges hooking.  

Overall warm to hot June .