weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think so...we need that piece of energy to be faster and the initial southern stream trough to be a bit slower so they can phase earlier in the game. I think one reason the ECM had so many big hits was because its bias towards slowing down the southern stream allowed the more potent northern stream energy to catch up in time and cause the trough to acquire negative tilt. This doesn't seem to be happening anymore because the southern stream is moving too fast off the coast while the main energy for our coastal is stuck in Manitoba. What about that massive 534dm closed height contour over the Northeast...is that playing a role in anything? If that was placed more to our south and west would that help to dig the trough much deeper and bring things closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Here's the sanity: If we had to pick a center point for the track of the low it would be about the benchmark or just SE at this point in time. Forget the euro stalled low near Virginia Beach, the GGEM wrap into LI and the NOGAPs hitting the flemish cap. That's likely where this is heading plus or minus 75 miles. Makes sense. Wrap it up, I'm taking that one home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't see the spag plots like Scott. All I said was that 84-90 had QPF throw back more into the interior than the OP so I assumed a few were decent for the interior. There were def some God's country outliers there..lol, about 4 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I usually use a rule of thumb that when those two agree with each other inside of 96 hours, its the best way to go...they very rarely lose when they are together in this time frame....which certainly gives me more confidence that ENE is under the gun. Given how convoluted this setup has become, still wise to excersise caution in both directions, but it seems as though they are narrowing into a zone just barely outside of the BM. what would that mean for se ct in term of qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think so...we need that piece of energy to be faster and the initial southern stream trough to be a bit slower so they can phase earlier in the game. I think one reason the ECM had so many big hits was because its bias towards slowing down the southern stream allowed the more potent northern stream energy to catch up in time and cause the trough to acquire negative tilt. This doesn't seem to be happening anymore because the southern stream is moving too fast off the coast while the main energy for our coastal is stuck in Manitoba. The heck with the southern stream, there was a lot of noise in the nrn stream with vorts everywhere, and this causes a broad trough. I don't put much blame in the srn stream at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well that would make sense. A low that tracks over the BM typically throws decent snows well NW into Central New Eng..and many times ENY A benchmark track in this case would not throw qpf as far west as normal because of the way it arrives at that location...many BM tracks are close to the NJ coast and then track NE....this one goes well out to the right and then hooks back...so you have to keep that in mind. I think a BM track would be fine for you, but not jackpot. Just outside the BM is getting a bit iffy near the CT River for much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 how does new haven area do in this situation??? I had to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 There were def some God's country outliers there..lol, about 4 of them. Reminds me of a Dumb and Dumber line...Lloyd: I want to ask you a question... straight out, flat out... and I want you to give me an honest answer. What do you think the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me... ending up together? Mary: Well Lloyd... that's difficult to say... you really don't... Lloyd: Hit me! Just give it to me straight! I came a long way just to see you Mary. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances? Mary: Not good. Lloyd: [Gulps] You mean, not good like one out of a hundred? Mary: I'd say more like... one out of a million. Lloyd: So you're telling me there's a chance. Yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The heck with the southern stream, there was a lot of noise in the nrn stream with vorts everywhere, and this causes a broad trough. I don't put much blame in the srn stream at all. This answers another question I had! With so many vorts everywhere that is for sure to screw up the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 A benchmark track in this case would not throw qpf as far west as normal because of the way it arrives at that location...many BM tracks are close to the NJ coast and then track NE....this one goes well out to the right and then hooks back...so you have to keep that in mind. I think a BM track would be fine for you, but not jackpot. Just outside the BM is getting a bit iffy near the CT River for much snow. Yeah I'm not concerned about not getting any snow at all...if it's within 50 miles of the BM on the east side it will snow here. I don't jackpot in any storm except an interior deal like 92..jackpot in a loose term..since you'd get 18 inches more than me anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This has probably been covered a half a gazillion times but if this system had more S/W ridging out ahead of the initial contact point between the northern and southern streams (around 60 hours or whenever that is...) than that 18z NAM position ends up 200 mile W, easy. As a result, the 12z Euro's 48 trough axis is roughly over Michigan, where the 18z NAM for that same time period is western Ontario... that subtlety makes a big difference toward 72 hours. I was just looking at the Euro comparison and sure enough, the Euro does roll out a bigger lead wake than these American models with secret variables to not snow deliberately added to their physical equations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well that would make sense. A low that tracks over the BM typically throws decent snows well NW into Central New Eng..and many times ENY Yup and hope for a bomb but not so wound up that it tightens the qpf cut off dramatically. I have not lost faith in at least a few inches of snow all the way out past me and MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 if it means anything, the cmc ensembles came considerably west at 12z...not sure if anyone mentioned this sorry i've been out all day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yup and hope for a bomb but not so wound up that it tightens the qpf cut off dramatically. I have not lost faith in at least a few inches of snow all the way out past me and MPM. and also hopefully the new haven area since it would be closer to the storm then eastern ny...right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The emotional insanity of this thread is unmatched Would make sense if not for us still being 78 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 and also hopefully the new haven area since it would be closer to the storm then eastern ny...right?? Keep the standards low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 if it means anything, the cmc ensembles came considerably west at 12z...not sure if anyone mentioned this sorry i've been out all day lol They did, they have measurable fairly far NW. The NOGAPs came way west too but both are still eastern outliers. Seeing as we are into the 3-3.5 day range hopefully here some of the talk will turn to actual thoughts on what will happen versus just what the models are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 They did, they have measurable fairly far NW. The NOGAPs came way west too but both are still eastern outliers. Seeing as we are into the 3-3.5 day range hopefully here some of the talk will turn to actual thoughts on what will happen versus just what the models are saying. Do you have a link for the CMC 12Z ensembles? tyia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 granted we are still a ways out (78hrs-ish) there is definitly room for weenies to still be pleased....we just need the easterly trend to cease starting with the 18z gfs and continuing at 0z. though we could still be crushed, I would certainly not expect more than a moderate event (6" ish) like what the GFS ensembles are depicting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Do you have a link for the CMC 12Z ensembles? tyia... They're on Allan's page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Do you have a link for the CMC 12Z ensembles? tyia... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggemensemble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 thanks for the reminder about the Raleighwx link guys and the link itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 God... hilarity always ensues in this here thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 granted we are still a ways out (78hrs-ish) there is definitly room for weenies to still be pleased....we just need the easterly trend to cease starting with the 18z gfs and continuing at 0z. though we could still be crushed, I would certainly not expect more than a moderate event (6" ish) like what the GFS ensembles are depicting.. at this point i would be very happy with a 4-8 inch event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 God... hilarity always ensues in this here thread We've covered about 9500 posts on this storm of which maybe 7 have been actual thoughts as to what would happen with it. Kind of silly really. We're three days out now from the low being off the EC. People complain about model mongering and the like, but really we're getting kind of close now. It's probably time to start laying it out and let the chips fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Tough tell tell exactly if they are better or worse than 00z, but still some good probs over for 0.25" or more in 12hrs. Looks like greater than 50% for GON-ORH-PSM on the 12z run. I think it may be a little better than 00z, but tough top decipher. Almost 20% chance greater than 1" qpf in 12 hrs for Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It gives some love for Dendrite as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well the good news is the NAM lead the way last week and the others followed. The NAM trended a hair west this past run, so it should be interesting to see if the GFS and others follow. I'd say the probability is in that favor than farther out to sea... t-8 minutes and we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 God... hilarity always ensues in this here thread WOW you think this thread is hilarious the model ones are both brutal and still hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 We've covered about 9500 posts on this storm of which maybe 7 have been actual thoughts as to what would happen with it. Kind of silly really. We're three days out now from the low being off the EC. People complain about model mongering and the like, but really we're getting kind of close now. It's probably time to start laying it out and let the chips fall where they may. Then do it.Final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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