Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Phil should probably post his thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 But how much further do you want it west? Maybe 50-80 miles but not much....guess it depends on your location. Today's trends really sucked for NYC/W SNE. So for my backyard it sucked... hence by doom and gloom posts about the 12z runs which were not good. My cavaet was that I'd wait til I saw the ensembles and they were better. So I'm still interested for sure but definitely not feeling as hot as I did earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 it's a real shame the trough axis is so far east. Lots of play in that when we are talking 50 miles at hour 84, it has slowed down again too. Honing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 50 miles has such a huge impact with the trajectory of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the server's gonna slow down again after this run Still plenty of time to iron out the details but the ridge out west and 50/50 with energy diving into the eastern trough are all I need at thig point to keep me interested. Almost had both eyebrows up after the 12Z EC Op but now down to just one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It boots ene near 40N, but man what a bomb. looks more due NE to me....i mean it doesn't boot ENE to sea....it scoots NE to SE newfundland. that little NE redirect costs most .5 qpf thou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Phil should probably post his thoughts You''ll get a snow shower at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 No it isn't! This would be a decent hit, nice early season snowstorm. lol for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Today's trends really sucked for NYC/W SNE. So for my backyard it sucked... hence by doom and gloom posts about the 12z runs which were not good. My cavaet was that I'd wait til I saw the ensembles and they were better. So I'm still interested for sure but definitely not feeling as hot as I did earlier this morning. It won't take much though. 50 miles or so means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hmm...almost looks like a Jan 2005 track. I only wish that could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Today's trends really sucked for NYC/W SNE. So for my backyard it sucked... hence by doom and gloom posts about the 12z runs which were not good. My cavaet was that I'd wait til I saw the ensembles and they were better. So I'm still interested for sure but definitely not feeling as hot as I did earlier this morning. Unless we probably see some significant changes with where the trough axis sets up I think we can pretty much forget any significant totals here in CT...even a more moderate event might be hard to get for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOL Loved the revolving thread title, like one of those electronic LED billboars constantly changing as your mood swung, too funny. Yesterdays Euro run was one for the ages though, possible best ever, not surprised at all in the changes but man the intensity hasn't wavered. There is more highs and lows in this thread then what shows on the models......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Today's trends really sucked for NYC/W SNE. So for my backyard it sucked... hence by doom and gloom posts about the 12z runs which were not good. My cavaet was that I'd wait til I saw the ensembles and they were better. So I'm still interested for sure but definitely not feeling as hot as I did earlier this morning. They did, but I would take 50 miles west of that run and be relatively happy. Seems more and more likely at least the E gets a good thump here. At least we're not staring at whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 looks more due NE to me....i mean it doesn't boot ENE to sea....it scoots NE to SE newfundland. that little NE redirect costs most .5 qpf thou. LOL, no real difference. Just be happy it went west a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It won't take much though. 50 miles or so means a lot. Fore sure. I think you and Phil look a lot better than me and Kev now, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Pacific Jet has ruined our party.......kudos to the GFS for seeing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Can we make analogous comparisons to Feb 6th 1978 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 gnite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Unless we probably see some significant changes with where the trough axis sets up I think we can pretty much forget any significant totals here in CT...even a more moderate event might be hard to get for most. Way premature Harv was just on. He said he thinks it will be somewhat further NW than this last one with the Cape again getting hit hardest. He said the rest of the coastal plain may be in decent shape but that amounts will fall back very quickly into NE CT where it may change to rain due to intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Interesting too...the 18z GFS isn't as fast to reopen the system and have it jerk off to the NE. This run also has pretty much a perfect phase which probably explains it has a bit of a westward shift than previous runs, certainly going to need to see that given the trough axis placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Way premature Harv was just on. He said he thinks it will be somewhat further NW than this last one with the Cape again getting hit hardest. He said the rest of the coastal plain may be in decent shape but that amounts will fall back very quickly into NE CT where it may change to rain due to intensity. That is certainly definitely possible and I'm not ruling anything out, however, it would be nice to see some of the models start to handle the trough placement a bit differently than they are, if it were to stay verbatim not sure how much more of a westward jog this could take on, unless we got phasing to occur at just the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 We need this to take a track a tick inside the benchmark and into the GOM instead of the tip of Novi.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 its not done coming west get your shovel polish out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Way premature Harv was just on. He said he thinks it will be somewhat further NW than this last one with the Cape again getting hit hardest. He said the rest of the coastal plain may be in decent shape but that amounts will fall back very quickly into NE CT where it may change to rain due to intensity. Que kevin's chair and rope I think i will do decent on this one in W. framingham but i do believe i will be hanging out in bridgewater ma sunday nite. Now let's get this thing to slow more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It won't take much though. 50 miles or so means a lot. Even if the models hold serve from here on out it leaves everyone in the game until at least sunday morning albeit best odds are obviously ORH to CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Axis works well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Unless we probably see some significant changes with where the trough axis sets up I think we can pretty much forget any significant totals here in CT...even a more moderate event might be hard to get for most. cmon paul...it's only Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 That is certainly definitely possible and I'm not ruling anything out, however, it would be nice to see some of the models start to handle the trough placement a bit differently than they are, if it were to stay verbatim not sure how much more of a westward jog this could take on, unless we got phasing to occur at just the right time. Henry M on Accu. commented this morning about how he didn't think the models would handle the inflow or the trough axis until we got closer to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nice occlusion warm core at 90, that sudden jog ENE is a culprit for NH but that will adjust and smooth. Looks pretty close to what I portrayed earlier, expect QPF to be better handled later with still tremendous Atlantic inflow and slowed speed. Great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 By the 0Z runs this thing is going to look like a sheared out dump of an opportunity for snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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