The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[dryslot]

Nam also bombs the low further north in the GOM as the other models gave it south of the cape.........

[CoastalWx]

You can see what the NAM does from 54h and beyond..it focuses the low center near an area of convection. Likely not right...iy affects the 5h field.

Yeah you can see the jump at H5 too.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I hope you're thought is right Will.

It's closer, it's a beauty, but still a miss for the most part in terms of CCB snows. Seems to lose the ideas it has inside of 48 hours at about 48/54....so I'm fairly confident there's a good chance the GFS maintains the 18z/6z type theme.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah you can see the jump at H5 too.

The give-away sign is that the low is extremely compact and micro-cane-esque...while the other solutions have a very strong low, its not as compact as the NAM...the NAM is giving us a little convection induced micro cane.

[CoastalWx]

Hmmm. Look at the normal H7 low, then the one from the developing tropical cyclone to the east. That's a head scratcher.

[mahk_webstah]

You can see what the NAM does from 54h and beyond..it focuses the low center near an area of convection. Likely not right...iy affects the 5h field.

meaning the low should be tucked in more?

looked at the rsm 3 hour intervals....really deepens for 60-72 and nudges north and even nnw on one of the increments then, makes a sharp jumpn ene and passing just s of the bm.

[ORH_wxman]

Hmmm. Look at the normal H7 low, then the one from the developing tropical cyclone to the east. That's a head scratcher.

Yeah, there should be a second 7H low and mid-level center that develops east of the broader one, but not like that. That's convection taking it to the extreme. I suppose it could always be right as convective feedback can be a real thing, but usually when the models are trying to do it (and its just one mesoscale model like the NAM doing it), then there's good reason to think its fake.

[mahk_webstah]

I hope you're thought is right Will.

It's closer, it's a beauty, but still a miss for the most part in terms of CCB snows. Seems to lose the ideas it has inside of 48 hours at about 48/54....so I'm fairly confident there's a good chance the GFS maintains the 18z/6z type theme.

It is nice to see a large area of light to moderate snow covering NH and ME

[moneypitmike]

Not only does it continue with my 1-2", it even shares that bounty with Rick and Andy!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yeah, there should be a second 7H low and mid-level center that develops east of the broader one, but not like that. That's convection taking it to the extreme. I suppose it could always be right as convective feedback can be a real thing, but usually when the models are trying to do it (and its just one mesoscale model like the NAM doing it), then there's good reason to think its fake.

Probably.

Either way the NAM is coming along gradually and the two critical runs are upcoming where it seems to dampen out these issues most of the time. I think it's a very positive trend.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, there should be a second 7H low and mid-level center that develops east of the broader one, but not like that. That's convection taking it to the extreme. I suppose it could always be right as convective feedback can be a real thing, but usually when the models are trying to do it (and its just one mesoscale model like the NAM doing it), then there's good reason to think its fake.

Yeah the feedback can be real, but the give away like you said, is how compact the low center is. Pretty tough to see that at this latitude, and it does look suspect when you look at the mass field. I haven't seen one model do this. I don't think the ETA or RSM were that compact.

[moneypitmike]

Yeah, there should be a second 7H low and mid-level center that develops east of the broader one, but not like that. That's convection taking it to the extreme. I suppose it could always be right as convective feedback can be a real thing, but usually when the models are trying to do it (and its just one mesoscale model like the NAM doing it), then there's good reason to think its fake.

I suspect we should have clues as to whether it's the "the real thing" when we get a view of the other 12z runs.

I'm curious to see if any this near hour if the other international models jump onto something remotely smilar to GFS/EC.

[Damage In Tolland]

JB confirms our suspicions

While this is fairly far west and of course with the upper pattern snow would expand northwest and this could be a monster from NYC northeast especially ( definition of monster at least 10 inches of snow with gusts over 40 mph) However even this, given the 500 mb looks to far east as its more likely to be tucked in over the gulf stream

[moneypitmike]

We might want to have a new thread kick off with the 12z gfs since we're now in the 90+ page territory? Would seem like a good break point.

I nominate the current ju-ju kings (Phil/Bob) to do the honors.

[Baroclinic Zone]

You can see what the NAM does from 54h and beyond..it focuses the low center near an area of convection. Likely not right...iy affects the 5h field.

Yeah, this looks more reasonable imo.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RSMEAST_12z/rsmloop.html

[moneypitmike]

JB confirms our suspicions

While this is fairly far west and of course with the upper pattern snow would expand northwest and this could be a monster from NYC northeast especially ( definition of monster at least 10 inches of snow with gusts over 40 mph) However even this, given the 500 mb looks to far east as its more likely to be tucked in over the gulf stream

Can you include more than what you just pasted? I'd like to see the remainder of his "however" comment.

[mahk_webstah]

Yeah, this looks more reasonable imo.

http://www.meteo.psu...2z/rsmloop.html

Isn't that frustrating how it pauses moves slightly nnw off of Jersey and then starts to bolt ene

[Baroclinic Zone]

Started

[Clinch Leatherwood]

There is one undeniable broad trend the last 3-4 days. Gradually the threat for the most precip has been sliding north and east as the hook occurs later and later. Areas well away from the mean track spent a full day or two trying to explain why the models should be further west/northwest than they were before it became crystal clear.

As we found with the storm earlier in the week although there was some degree of feedback (not to this extent) it didn't really effect the course in a way that significantly impacted a huge area of New England.

The NAM did trend west, the 60hr QPF maps tell the story. The question really is at this point how much further west does it get before the hook as we seem to be locking into a solution cone.

[weathafella]

3.5 -4 days away now. Sunday night it starts Bang the drums, tell your neighbors.. Have your significant others get pissed at you for ruining Christmas by being on the laptop all day checking models and making posts. It's what it's all about

Always remind them Kevin....you are the bus driver.

[CoastalWx]

Always remind them Kevin....you are the bus driver.

 

I pretty much went to the laptop every free minute I could find that day..lol.

[CoastalWx]

Still not a ton of qpf back here.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

LOL..What a memory

[grinch1989]

Always remind them Kevin....you are the bus driver.

I remember Kevin's post like it was yesterday.  My wife just started talking to me again actually...

[OKpowdah]

There have never been more meteorologists and weather enthusiasts online at 1am Christmas Eve, waiting for the Euro lol

[Ginx snewx]

Always remind them Kevin....you are the bus driver.

He called out sick before the biggest blizzard of his life though. Back of the bus for now.

#7 Wx Hype Posted 3 February 2013 - 03:04 PM

Rev Kev

34,851 posts

Joined November 12, 2010

Location:Tolland, CT

82 °F

SW @ 13 MPH

Rainer for SNe?

Elevation 1,000 feet

Summer haze, heat, and humidity will cause multiple rolls to be used per sitting this summer

 

Hyping Wx since 2003.

 

Follow me on Twitter...@Tollandkev

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