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The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

What are you talking about? A storm that tracks near the BM always drops accumulating snowfall here. Again don't focus on qpf placement or amt.s .This is how you always get into trouble.

A strong storm where it is on the Euro will throw a good deal of snow much farther west than what you think. Nothing has changed at all overnight..

Respectfully disagree. The GFS ensembles were all east of the op, and I believe all east of the BM. The EC has continued its progression east. I would daresay that rose has fully lost its bloom (if that's the phrase) as it did poorly with two systems in a row now.

As always, I find your optimism encouraging. Inasmuch as I'm west of the valley, I don't think I have a dog in the hunt. Your earlier accum forecast even agrees with that. The ever more progressive placement of the EC, the ensembles from 00z gfs, and the scraper of the 06z GFS dont' bode well. We'll see in a few hours how things continue to evolve. But, taking the 00z/06 models in total, I see at best a "status quo" from the earlier runs, with a leaning to a net disappointment.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Respectfully disagree. The GFS ensembles were all east of the op, and I believe all east of the BM. The EC has continued its progression east. I would daresay that rose has fully lost its bloom (if that's the phrase) as it did poorly with two systems in a row now.

As always, I find your optimism encouraging. Inasmuch as I'm west of the valley, I don't think I have a dog in the hunt. Your earlier accum forecast even agrees with that. The ever more progressive placement of the EC, the ensembles from 00z gfs, and the scraper of the 06z GFS dont' bode well. We'll see in a few hours how things continue to evolve. But, taking the 00z/06 models in total, I see at best a "status quo" from the earlier runs, with a leaning to a net disappointment.

The Euro was exactly the same as 12z..the GEFS at 6z came west..The NAM came west..Only difference is the 6z GFS went east a bit. Euro was actually better at 00z vs 12z since it was slower..Relax..It's gonna snow

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

1. a whiff is very much still on the table

(take a peek at 0z gfs ensemble members)

2. despite anti nina conditions with extreme ridging.....SCal rains and weather fella saying this makes no sense i'm clueless anyway......the nina signature Fast pac jet and dominant northerns stream is giving models hell ....with multiple vorts and minute changes in lead shortwaves strength and second shortwaves amplitidue putting this delicate phase up for grabs 60 hrs out .

crossing fingers for the moving parts to behave.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

What are you talking about? A storm that tracks near the BM always drops accumulating snowfall here. Again don't focus on qpf placement or amt.s .This is how you always get into trouble.

A strong storm where it is on the Euro will throw a good deal of snow much farther west than what you think. Nothing has changed at all overnight..

With a storm as deep as has been modeled I would expect the precip shield to be rather more expanded than what we're seeing at this juncture. I can remember quite a few storms that were modeled to give the East slope a very heavy snowfall and areas to the NW like ALB/Glens Falls were slated to receive much less. However, at go time, with a very intense storm, an area of very heavy snow broke out much farther West than progged. With as deep a storm as is forecast I would not be surprised to see something similar happen. Will it?who knows. I like Ginx's call for 8" out this way. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that verify. BTW, I was very entertained by the Socks vs. Skier spat.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

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The Euro was exactly the same as 12z..the GEFS at 6z came west..The NAM came west..Only difference is the 6z GFS went east a bit. Euro was actually better at 00z vs 12z since it was slower..Relax..It's gonna snow

kev what did the Euro ENS. show. I think mike or someone else commented on them going East. I would hope they didn't significantly.

But the 0z gfs ENS members were east. from my limited iq i think 5 showed a wiff for the 128 corridor....aside from likely OES.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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With a storm as deep as has been modeled I would expect the precip shield to be rather more expanded than what we're seeing at this juncture. I can remember quite a few storms that we're modeled to give the East slope a very heavy snowfall and areas to the NW like ALB/Glens Falls were slated to receive much less. However, at go time, with a very intense storm, an area of very heavy snow broke out much farther West than progged. With as deep a storm as is forecast I would not be surprised to see something similar happen. Will it?who knows. I like Ginx's call for 8" out this way. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that verify. BTW, I was very entertained by the Socks vs. Skier spat.

Yeah with a bomb like the Euro has you're not gonna go from 2 feet on the cape to nothing in ALB ..it doesn't work that way..Not with that kind o inflow.

And yes you can tell they are in love.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Respectfully disagree. The GFS ensembles were all east of the op, and I believe all east of the BM. The EC has continued its progression east. I would daresay that rose has fully lost its bloom (if that's the phrase) as it did poorly with two systems in a row now.

As always, I find your optimism encouraging. Inasmuch as I'm west of the valley, I don't think I have a dog in the hunt. Your earlier accum forecast even agrees with that. The ever more progressive placement of the EC, the ensembles from 00z gfs, and the scraper of the 06z GFS dont' bode well. We'll see in a few hours how things continue to evolve. But, taking the 00z/06 models in total, I see at best a "status quo" from the earlier runs, with a leaning to a net disappointment.

That's what you always see. lol

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ski MRG

ski MRG

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Yeah with a bomb like the Euro has you're not gonna go from 2 feet on the cape to nothing in ALB ..it doesn't work that way..Not with that kind o inflow.

And yes you can tell they are in love.

Bottom line for me is that we'll all see some snow. Major inflow on a NE wind slamming into the East slope will shake something out. Glad I haven't watched this thing really intently. Seems like we're still in nearly the same position we were in a few days ago. Some uncertainty and some possibility.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The Euro was exactly the same as 12z..the GEFS at 6z came west..The NAM came west..Only difference is the 6z GFS went east a bit. Euro was actually better at 00z vs 12z since it was slower..Relax..It's gonna snow

I may be wrong--lord knows, I probably am more than I'm right., But I think the 06z GEFS were west of the 06OP, not west of the 00z. op or gefs. Correct me if I am.

I fully agree on the tight qpf gradient and what a minor shift will portend (unfortuantley, I need more than 50 miles). My concern as stated earlier is that the adjustments "appear" to me to being in the wrong direction. Note: I recognize the NAM is trending the right way, but I think it's more of a convergence of model depictions across the board as GFS/EC continue east.

I am not expecting a shift west, and for whatever reason, I think the qpf cut off is very tight. FWIW, benchmark storms are not very good for this part of SNE. Give us a canal cutter and I'll leap for joy.

As an OT funny thing. We went to Bright Nights in Springfield last night. As we were driving down I-91 it occurred to me that the night we did it last year was the night of the infamous WSW offering 5-10" and the vast majority of the state getting nary a flake. What a nightmare that was. Perhaps this will be a surprise in the other direction.:snowman:

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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Bottom line for me is that we'll all see some snow. Major inflow on a NE wind slamming into the East slope will shake something out. Glad I haven't watched this thing really intently. Seems like we're still in nearly the same position we were in a few days ago. Some uncertainty and some possibility.

Smart move. You'd be really depressed after what was presented on the all-powerful EC a couple days ago with an awesome, though somewhat less impressive, presentation on the GFS.

Let's take the current EC solution as the one that verifies. What grade do you give it? I go with a low "C".

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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anyone have the Euro ensembles that's lurking ....or whatever.

im headed to work and have a minute or so.

Whdh just went significantly less bullish. I hope we get crushed. so i can hear these weathermen are "clueless" lol. always good discussion when i try and stick up for them

We never had local tv on, so we don't get the wisdom of Brian Lappis, etc. coming through the tube. The forecast my wife gets when she ask me what's going to happen is "I think that........", followed by "but Will, Scott, Kevin and others say......". She always sides with you guys. Meredith's a smart woman.

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