The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[weathafella]

And I agree with Will...that HP in Quebec screams llvl cold. Watch out in the long range. llvl temps may be coldish east of the apps and north of 40n.

[weatherwiz]

Positive Kev is back for now

He brings up a great point.

[moneypitmike]

The great news here is the stability in the OP EC. It's consistently had a major snowstorm it's just that the location shifted 900 miles in 24 hours.

lol.

It will be tough if we lose the ability to have a "king" model. Saying this plays out, what model's the winner here?

I'd say the one that was most steadfastly wrong would be the loser.

[moneypitmike]

This still has the potential to be a massive storm and small fluctuations in track can mean a big deal.

As stated last night I spent many years on the coast and have many memories of monster storms coming West inside of 24-36hrs. Usually too far West for my benefit.

I refuse to hit cancel until at least friday night.

The models still may not have a complete grasp of all the variables out across the continent - something that Tip brought up during last nights radio show.

The ghost of the reverend has now taken up residence in Greenfield.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

lol.

It will be tough if we lose the ability to have a "king" model. Saying this plays out, what model's the winner here?

I'd say the one that was most steadfastly wrong would be the loser.

I think it's great. Maybe we can all stop worrying about what is shown 7+ days out.

[bobbutts]

Road trip? I've always wanted to try skiing the dunes.

Cape Cod Skiing Trip Report

[HoarfrostHubb]

Positive Kev is back for now

[Boston-winter08]

lol.

It will be tough if we lose the ability to have a "king" model. Saying this plays out, what model's the winner here?

I'd say the one that was most steadfastly wrong would be the loser.

I think too many people are basing too many forecasts on the EURO in general...yeah, it had its successes last winter but that was mostly within the 72 hours timeframe...this year, we're looking at storms 7 days out on the EURO and treating them as "locks," and then calling the EURO a busting model when it fizzles from the blizzard four days out (which would ordinarily not be that terrible for any other model)

I cracked up this morning watching TWC when Bettes was talking about the "EURO model" (they were comparing its projected snow map with the GFS') and how it's the only model showing 3-6" for Atlanta, but that's the one TWC is buying

[bobbutts]

Whatever the outcome is I will say I have throughly enjoyed tracking the potential over the past several days and even don't mind that I have been up for about 30 consecutive hours now. While I would be disappointed if nothing happens it's only b/c I obviously want a storm lol but I also know that this outcome was certainly a possibility. The most fun part has been the learning! Can't go wrong with that and I don't mind not sleeping as long as I'm being productive, which I have been.

Damn, you need to pace yourself .. gotta save some gas for shorter range model watching (in case a long range threat actually ever becomes a short range one too)

[moneypitmike]

The storm was not locked in yesterday, nor is it dead yet. Breathe and enjoy the holidays. I'm enjoying the light snow finally starting to collect. I may be able to add a T to my seasonal total. I'll take it.

Let's see what the ensembles have to say, too.

There's a lot less room to move a day later.

My wife just said: "you guys are unstable".

My 6-year old just said: "what if we go the whole winter without snow?"

[Kbosch]

There's a lot less room to move a day later.

My wife just said: "you guys are unstable".

My 6-year old just said: "what if we go the whole winter without snow?"

Do we need it to move much though? Nope. It could easily come back. I do not think it will, but that would not be a problem.

[weathafella]

Well hopefully the less frenetic pace will enable better analysis from us hobbyists. I still think eastern SNE can get clobbered but I need to see the east trend stop.

[dryslot]

There's a lot less room to move a day later.

My wife just said: "you guys are unstable".

My 6-year old just said: "what if we go the whole winter without snow?"

There could be some truth to both of those statements............

[weatherwiz]

Damn, you need to pace yourself .. gotta save some gas for shorter range model watching (in case a long range threat actually ever becomes a short range one too)

I'm going pretty good right now, will probably go to bed around 2-3 AM tonight and then wake up around 8-9 AM tomorrow.

[leesun]

It's been since 2/2006 since I've had over a foot from 1 storm.

Yeah - there's a whole lot of us who are heading on 10 months with no event over 1". Pretty much the entire valley from Hartford to Brattleboro. Also large sections of the Hudson Valley. Most of the old timers i talk to in Greenfield say this has been one of the longest snow droughts they can remember.

[dryslot]

Man, I have to keep checking what thread i am coming back to as the name keeps changing like the models..........

[dendrite]

Whatever the outcome is I will say I have throughly enjoyed tracking the potential over the past several days and even don't mind that I have been up for about 30 consecutive hours now. While I would be disappointed if nothing happens it's only b/c I obviously want a storm lol but I also know that this outcome was certainly a possibility. The most fun part has been the learning! Can't go wrong with that and I don't mind not sleeping as long as I'm being productive, which I have been.

That's not healthy. The model runs don't disappear. You can go to bed and sleep like everyone else and then wake up in the morning and catch up on what happened. Next storm I'm going to ban you every night at 2am for 8 hours.

[dryslot]

That's not healthy. The model runs don't disappear. You can go to bed and sleep like everyone else and then wake up in the morning and catch up on what happened. Next storm I'm going to ban you every night at 2am for 8 hours.

He is running over hours on his log book.........lol

[moneypitmike]

Those guys got 30 inches in the Feb 26 KU last season while all of us poured rain. I think they can wait a little.

One minute there, Pal. I only got 24".

[doug1991]

Yeah - there's a whole lot of us who are heading on 10 months with no event over 1". Pretty much the entire valley from Hartford to Brattleboro. Also large sections of the Hudson Valley. Most of the old timers i talk to in Greenfield say this has been one of the longest snow droughts they can remember.

I agree. Honestly 06-07 was really bad but suddenly its looking pretty good considering we have been totally screwed since Feb.

[weatherwiz]

That's not healthy. The model runs don't disappear. You can go to bed and sleep like everyone else and then wake up in the morning and catch up on what happened. Next storm I'm going to ban you every night at 2am for 8 hours.

I'd probably go through withdrawal and end up on one of those drug addiction shows huddling in a corner shaking.

[doug1991]

One minute there, Pal. I only got 24".

LOL. We were just talking about that 1 or 2 days ago.

[Logan11]

JB says a wave on the arctic boundary (i.e. northern stream) is shooting out ahead for Xmas day/night and mucking things up. Now he expects the southern stream development to follow the boundary left behind after that.... Take it for what it is..... He was clinging to the Euro, but that was before 12Z came out.

He did say the initial one could get some light snow to the NE coast so maybe our main hope here now is an inch or two from that disturbance. It would add some more atmosphere anyway.

It's been since 2/2006 since I've had over a foot from 1 storm.

[leesun]

Maybe this whole thing is my fault. I just gased up the snowblower yesterday. Kiss of death every time. I really just wanted to make sure it worked. Haven't used it in ages!

I agree. Honestly 06-07 was really bad but suddenly its looking pretty good considering we have been totally screwed since Feb.

[skierinvermont]

I'm not jumping off any bridges yet.. yeah this run is disappointing but we have a 970mb bomb modeled for somewhere just off CC at D4. Verbatim we have over 1 foot for CC and advisory for BOS. We still have close to a 50% shot at something widespread for interior SNE. I would not be shocked at all if the 18z GFS came back to a 6z solution.. not saying it's likely but certainly quite possible.

[snowNH]

I'm not jumping off any bridges yet.. yeah this run is disappointing but we have a 970mb bomb modeled for somewhere just off CC at D4. Verbatim we have over 1 foot for CC and advisory for BOS. We still have close to a 50% shot at something widespread for interior SNE.

Agreed, its not like last storm where we were hoping for the storm to come together.

We HAVE to see a shift NW in the 18z and especially the 00z IMO

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm not jumping off any bridges yet.. yeah this run is disappointing but we have a 970mb bomb modeled for somewhere just off CC at D4. Verbatim we have over 1 foot for CC and advisory for BOS. We still have close to a 50% shot at something widespread for interior SNE.

But, but, but it's not the apocalypse from yesterday.

[bobbutts]

Maybe this whole thing is my fault. I just gased up the snowblower yesterday. Kiss of death every time. I really just wanted to make sure it worked. Haven't used it in ages!

I let my snowblower die last feb and didn't revive it this time.. so we should be getting massive storms

instead we get snowless Mar and Dec

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not jumping off any bridges yet.. yeah this run is disappointing but we have a 970mb bomb modeled for somewhere just off CC at D4. Verbatim we have over 1 foot for CC and advisory for BOS. We still have close to a 50% shot at something widespread for interior SNE.

I'd like to see the Euro ensembles hold pretty close to the benchmark, or at least not see them stray too far east. They've been a tick E of the BM for the past several runs and that is now where the OP run is at 12z. If the 12z ensembles are similar, I think that installs more confidence that this is still quite a serious threat to at least eastern areas.

I'd expect at least a little bump east at 12z given the OP run, but as long as its within 75-100 mi of the BM, I don't think much changes from the original ideas tossed around.

Sometimes the OP outdoes the ensembles as we've seen it several times before, but more often than not, it can't beat them in this time range which is why we always post about them.

[snowNH]

I'd like to see the Euro ensembles hold pretty close to the benchmark, or at least not see them stray too far east. They've been a tick E of the BM for the past several runs and that is now where the OP run is at 12z. If the 12z ensembles are similar, I think that installs more confidence that this is still quite a serious threat to at least eastern areas.

I'd expect at least a little bump east at 12z given the OP run, but as long as its within 75-100 mi of the BM, I don't think much changes from the original ideas tossed around.

Sometimes the OP outdoes the ensembles as we've seen it several times before, but more often than not, it can't beat them in this time range which is why we always post about them.

When will they come out? isn't it soon?