The Post Christmas storm threat is still vey real

[dryslot]

Should be some good winds out on the cape, downeast ME...

Yeah, Downeast Maine would get hammered by wind and snow, I will take my .50" qpf back here and run.......

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

Down East should get clocked.

984 crossing 40/69 almost exactly.

I am sticking with my prediction of a 35n/75w to 41n/69w track

That is an absolutely ferocious commahead/CCB at 90 and 96 hours over CC and extreme E MA....if you back that 50-75 miles west, a large portion of the region gets slammed with a monster event.

Also models tend to underperform when it comes to the comma head and CCB aspect of this monster ocean storms. That track would put CC at wicked snows, I guess the LLJ will be intense and so will the bl winds?

That was a fun storm.

Certaintly was a very fun and unique storm for me. We lost power for about three days do to the heavy nature of the storm. My youngest brother was around 2 years old at that time and we were in Buffalo, NY at our relatives house for the Holiday. I would look at accuweather.com for my latest weather updates as well as NWS Taunton site on their desktop. My dad brother and I decided to come home and leave my mother, two brothers and sister there in BUF and came back the Saturday before the storm. Highs were around 40f that day. Unbelievable, started as light rain and then turned over to snow quickly. We ended up with an unofficial snow total of 15". I think this storm could out perform given this should be just as intense and perhaps a much colder storm system.

[ORH_wxman]

When should we give it til Will to throw in the towel? Tonight's 00z?

If 00z is a large bump east, then I think it would be getting pretty bleak. That would be about 72 hours from the onset and starting to get into a wheel house where the models rapidly converge on a solution. However, if we see something like the 12z Euro tonight on a lot of guidance, than that keeps everyone in the game, with eastern areas being the highest risk.

This is another tough setup and it seems to be getting more complicated as we get closer with all that garbage going on in the northern stream.

[Typhoon Tip]

I said this too, as a call into the radio show last night:

AND THAT PORTIONS OF THE

EVOLVING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE MORE

DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A

LARGE REDUCTION IN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL

CYCLES...BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z CYCLE.

I think it important because that relay is still not complete

[Kbosch]

On the plus side the flurries are almost becoming light snow here now. Nice little band on radar.

I take what I can get. We'll get a storm eventually, this or another one.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The great news here is the stability in the OP EC. It's consistently had a major snowstorm it's just that the location shifted 900 miles in 24 hours.

[snowNH]

I said this too, as a call into the radio show last night:

AND THAT PORTIONS OF THE

EVOLVING UPSTREAM CONDITIONS ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE MORE

DENSELY POPULATED OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A

LARGE REDUCTION IN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL

CYCLES...BEGINNING WITH THE 12Z CYCLE.

I think it important because that relay is still not complete

Can you explain that in English?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This still has the potential to be a massive storm and small fluctuations in track can mean a big deal.

As stated last night I spent many years on the coast and have many memories of monster storms coming West inside of 24-36hrs. Usually too far West for my benefit.

I refuse to hit cancel until at least friday night.

The models still may not have a complete grasp of all the variables out across the continent - something that Tip brought up during last nights radio show.

[weatherwiz]

It's almost becoming easier to get tornadoes in CT than it is snow events (That's my one off-mark post for the day)

[CoastalWx]

Solutions are converging. Everyone conveniently remembers the models that show hits, and forgets the models that are hundreds of miles east.

[Typhoon Tip]

Welp, the upshot is that soon after this event.... the pattern flips and we see highs in the 60s for a week.

na na na-na na

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This still has the potential to be a massive storm and small fluctuations in track can mean a big deal.

As stated last night I spent many years on the coast and have many memories of monster storms coming West inside of 24-36hrs. Usually too far West for my benefit.

I refuse to hit cancel until at least friday night.

The models still may not have a complete grasp of all the variables out across the continent - something that Tip brought up during last nights radio show.

We must have been typing this at the same time - lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Can you explain that in English?

NCEP is talking about the difference between data sparse regions over the Pacific Ocean compared to the denser sounding network over land.

[Kbosch]

Can you explain that in English?

More data means better agreement among the models as they center near one solution instead of being all over the map.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Can you explain that in English?

I'm pretty ignorant about this kind of thing, but it says that the models are just starting to get decent real data since the "storm" itself has been some shortwave west of Cali and up in the Northwest Territories (or whatever they are called)

Tip has been banging this drum for a while... some of the idiots on the "chat" feature of last night's radio show were being pretty rude about it.

[mahk_webstah]

If 00z is a large bump east, then I think it would be getting pretty bleak. That would be about 72 hours from the onset and starting to get into a wheel house where the models rapidly converge on a solution. However, if we see something like the 12z Euro tonight on a lot of guidance, than that keeps everyone in the game, with eastern areas being the highest risk.

This is another tough setup and it seems to be getting more complicated as we get closer with all that garbage going on in the northern stream.

Thats why I think this is still on the table. not so much to shift at 48 hours, but room at 72 hours. Not unusual for an overtrend that begins to come back on tonights runs. Seems exquisitely subtle and 100 miles has huge implications for all of us in NE. How did CON do on the Euro btw?

My feeling is that I want to see a mojor pattern change even if we suffer for a while. We need to reshuffle the deck and then let a normal winter start....swfes with strong gradients, up and down temps nad then a big storm as we enter the next strong blocking period

[Damage In Tolland]

Does anyone want to go golfing next weekend for NY..shouldn't be any snowcover anywhere in SNE. Some of the courses might open up

[Patfan1987]

People need to chill! if you jump off the bridge now you wont be seeing the snow when it is actually falling after it tracks back west! lol

This storm we had the last couple days should show you nothing is set in stone, we have a ways to go.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I wish you good health over the holidays and into the New Year, even if you are a mod-in-training

Hey, Thanks!

Life is good. I don't need to fret over a storm/non-storm. I'll take whatever I can get.

[SC48]

The problem is like last year a little bit. There is just way too much blocking to the north. Think about it for a second. A huge Greenland Block (1060+MB) and a traffic jam with a semi 50/50 Lows in the way. In order for us to get a good snowstorm, the massive blocking and traffic jam of semi 50/50s has to break down a bit or these coastl scrapers will be the theme for the overall winter.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This still has the potential to be a massive storm and small fluctuations in track can mean a big deal.

As stated last night I spent many years on the coast and have many memories of monster storms coming West inside of 24-36hrs. Usually too far West for my benefit.

I refuse to hit cancel until at least friday night.

The models still may not have a complete grasp of all the variables out across the continent - something that Tip brought up during last nights radio show.

Same here... prob too far east for me to get excited, but it is a neat event to follow...might have some surprises left.

[amarshall]

This thread has me so down in the dumps I had to go talk about something positive in Off-Topic like Norovirus.

[dendrite]

Can we ramp up SWFE season yet?

[codfishsnowman]

Alright. I'm done. This has been a disgusting year. I'm sick of this

Yep this is awful

[weatherwiz]

Is there a sharp cutoff on QPF on the Euro? Using ewall to try and judge the track between 72 and 94 and it doesn't look relatively bad for areas further inland...unless I'm misjudging. Will said the 0.25'' line got back to ORH so I was wondering if this was showing a pretty tight gradient and sharp cutoff?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Does anyone want to go golfing next weekend for NY..shouldn't be any snowcover anywhere in SNE. Some of the courses might open up

I will be skiing... again...

You had some bad eggnog today?

[dendrite]

Is there a sharp cutoff on QPF on the Euro? Using ewall to try and judge the track between 72 and 94 and it doesn't look relatively bad for areas further inland...unless I'm misjudging. Will said the 0.25'' line got back to ORH so I was wondering if this was showing a pretty tight gradient and sharp cutoff?

Sharp longitudinal gradient. Maybe 0.1" for you.

[snowNH]

Thats why I think this is still on the table. not so much to shift at 48 hours, but room at 72 hours. Not unusual for an overtrend that begins to come back on tonights runs. Seems exquisitely subtle and 100 miles has huge implications for all of us in NE. How did CON do on the Euro btw?

My feeling is that I want to see a mojor pattern change even if we suffer for a while. We need to reshuffle the deck and then let a normal winter start....swfes with strong gradients, up and down temps nad then a big storm as we enter the next strong blocking period

The funny thing about this is if SNE was place about 200-300 miles S and E we would have been hit by probably 5 Major Storms in one year. Dec 09, Feb 5 2010, Feb 12 2010, Storm a couple days ago, Now this storm.

We are just getting really unlucky

[ORH_wxman]

Is there a sharp cutoff on QPF on the Euro? Using ewall to try and judge the track between 72 and 94 and it doesn't look relatively bad for areas further inland...unless I'm misjudging. Will said the 0.25'' line got back to ORH so I was wondering if this was showing a pretty tight gradient and sharp cutoff?

Its not razor sharp cutoff, but its a decent gradient...it basically has 0.75" at BOS to 0.25" at ORH to 0.10" at the Ct River Valley.

[weatherwiz]

Sharp longitudinal gradient. Maybe 0.1" for you.

Just brutal.