Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Do the Euro ens have any big clustering to the west of the mean...or is it just a few outliers causing the jump NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 . . . It's official, I've never met such a bi-polar group in my life. Can some one please hand back my sanity. I think I dropped it somewhere between model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes..that's the take home message. NAM normally beyond 48 loses alot of cred but a better trend. Right now the euro ensembles have my attention........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It will still likely be out to sea, but at least closer to the benchmark..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It will still likely be out to sea, but at least closer to the benchmark..... You'd still drown in the first few days heading west towards it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I want to thank the cop who talked me off the ledge about 15 minutes ago. "It's ok, the models are taking it west" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I only have out to 60 on NCEP but for those that have it further out does it start trying to dig the trough more by 66 HR or even 72 HR? I was thinking it's possible given the closed 500mb look over the OV which could help try to dig the trough more with nice jet stream rounding down the trough. Plus with the better amplified look along rhe EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I want to thank the cop who talked me off the ledge about 15 minutes ago LOL...Would that fall have even killed him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Verbatum, what's the pressure of the low in the GOM on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannyglover Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 LOL...Would that fall have even killed him? Looks like a good 30-40 feet to me. Easily could kill someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Verbatum, what's the pressure of the low in the GOM on the Euro? About 966mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I only have out to 60 on NCEP but for those that have it further out does it start trying to dig the trough more by 66 HR or even 72 HR? I was thinking it's possible given the closed 500mb look over the OV which could help try to dig the trough more with nice jet stream rounding down the trough. Plus with the better amplified look along rhe EC. The backside energy in the N. Stream near Manitoba/Hudson Bay is too slow on the 18z NAM to interact with the trough; this has been the main trend on the models that has killed the storm. You need the potent northern stream to arrive from Canada in order to make the trough go negative and sling the surface low back towards the coast. You can see that the piece of energy is too far away from the main storm to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 MSLP 1004 at 72 hours well offshore with a leaf of OES up through SNE......OES or inverted trof? Seems (sensible wx depiction) to be carrying a 50 lb lunch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Do the Euro ens have any big clustering to the west of the mean...or is it just a few outliers causing the jump NW? I think the biggest difference was just ahead of the trough. There were a lot of members that had ridging over sne at hr 60. By ridging I mean pumped heights...higher than the op had. I think this was where the difference was and what causes the low to track close to or a hair nw of the op. There were still some clustering on the east by hr 72, but I think that ridging made the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 At least NAM is more negatively tilted at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 About 966mb. Thanks, Will. Seems I get some good wind out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well I'm encouraged by the fact that the GFS/ECMWF ensembles still show a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think the biggest difference was just ahead of the trough. There were a lot of members that had ridging over sne at hr 60. By ridging I mean pumped heights...higher than the op had. I think this was where the difference was and what causes the low to track close to or a hair nw of the op. There were still some clustering on the east by hr 72, but I think that ridging made the difference. I was just wondering since Brian had said that there were a couple big thumpers for interior locales.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The backside energy in the N. Stream near Manitoba/Hudson Bay is too slow on the 18z NAM to interact with the trough; this has been the main trend on the models that has killed the storm. You need the potent northern stream to arrive from Canada in order to make the trough go negative and sling the surface low back towards the coast. You can see that the piece of energy is too far away from the main storm to do this. So that area of stronger energy you have circled...you want to see that be much further south than where it's modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 NAM has some nice vorticity rounding the trough, but man, its so broad. If it were slightly sharper, it would probably hook the whole system left into a decent position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nice speck of .1''+ QPF on the NAM for BOS. Congrats Jerry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nam might be trying to form a comma head to hit SNE, might be too late though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 So that area of stronger energy you have circled...you want to see that be much further south than where it's modeled? I think so...we need that piece of energy to be faster and the initial southern stream trough to be a bit slower so they can phase earlier in the game. I think one reason the ECM had so many big hits was because its bias towards slowing down the southern stream allowed the more potent northern stream energy to catch up in time and cause the trough to acquire negative tilt. This doesn't seem to be happening anymore because the southern stream is moving too fast off the coast while the main energy for our coastal is stuck in Manitoba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I was just wondering since Brian had said that there were a couple big thumpers for interior locales.. I don't see the spag plots like Scott. All I said was that 84-90 had QPF throw back more into the interior than the OP so I assumed a few were decent for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 left hook????? If not this run, the models may be heading towards it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 . . . It's official, I've never met such a bi-polar group in my life. Can some one please hand back my sanity. I think I dropped it somewhere between model runs. Here's the sanity: If we had to pick a center point for the track of the low it would be about the benchmark or just SE at this point in time. Forget the euro stalled low near Virginia Beach, the GGEM wrap into LI and the NOGAPs hitting the flemish cap. That's likely where this is heading plus or minus 75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well I'm encouraged by the fact that the GFS/ECMWF ensembles still show a decent hit. I usually use a rule of thumb that when those two agree with each other inside of 96 hours, its the best way to go...they very rarely lose when they are together in this time frame....which certainly gives me more confidence that ENE is under the gun. Given how convoluted this setup has become, still wise to excersise caution in both directions, but it seems as though they are narrowing into a zone just barely outside of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 I don't see the spag plots like Scott. All I said was that 84-90 had QPF throw back more into the interior than the OP so I assumed a few were decent for the interior. Well that would make sense. A low that tracks over the BM typically throws decent snows well NW into Central New Eng..and many times ENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Nice speck of .1''+ QPF on the NAM for BOS. Congrats Jerry? It looks like it's from an inverted trough too...maybe some OES enhancement...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Looks like a good 30-40 feet to me. Easily could kill someone. From what I've read, 200' is the optimum height. Anything less than that poses the chance of permanent, physical and/ or brain damage, including vegetative state chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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