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March 17-18 Severe Weather Event


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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

is TorCon their version of sig tor parameter?  Or is it something different?

I think it is similar to SPC probs within 25 miles of any given location but for a much bigger area. Maybe within 100 miles?

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3 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

Ugh, so we can cross “cloudy warm sector” off the list of possible failure modes, and early soundings show a decent EML.

 

Things are sadly falling into place to make today significant.

I was just texting someone that the warm sector looks awesome rn. It’s weird to see little to no crapvection. 

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Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC.  I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it.  
I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play.  It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day...   The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather. 

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6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC.  I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it.  
I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play.  It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day...   The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather. 

Especially with rain chances throughout the day and no sun. Definitely reminds me of april 19 2019 (although I think that setup was a lot more CAPE dependent)

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3 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

April 27 11 had 01km shear 1000 m2s2, the days storms in Alabama 200 m2s2. Let's tell Adair to stop the hype.  The winds are certainly not as backed and low levsl jet during day is not extreme. 

I’ll go with the pros at SPC over Random Internet Contrarian Guy Who Seeks Attention.

The parameters and set up support a very significant and impactful event today.

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I think the key is that people say *since* 2011. They don't say that it's "like 2011" or "worse than 2011" so I'm more than willing to accept the statement as something other than pure hype. Once again, it can't be overstated how absurd that day in April really was. But 200-300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, especially with lots of streamwise vorticity, is more than sufficient for strong tornadoes. While I doubt this will be a case of nearly every cell producing an intense-violent tornado simultaneously, like it seemed to be the case on 4/27, I can imagine that at least a few will be more than capable of producing intense tornadoes, even simultaneously, across the open warm-sector.

EDIT: ninja'd and with far less words lol

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14 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Clear hype. Remain open to the evidence.   If the evidence shows that,  then say that . I haven't seen sig tors during the day in Alabams above a 3. 2011 had uncapped 10 to 12 sig tor across great distance in all directions. 

Clear FUD, remain open to the evidence.  Adair said the conditions were the worst he's seen SINCE 2011, so comparing it to 2011 is irrelevant.  He also doesn't specify what time of day he's referencing, so look at the conditions for the entire event duration, not just "during the day".  Also, take a look at the latest HRR, shows sig tors of 6 at 21z in "Alabams".

 

Everything is there for a significant event today, just because the conditions aren't as ripe as the worst event in a generation doesn't change that.

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Just now, wizard021 said:

Also note the 300 - 500 mb layer is considerably more moist . High cloud cover is going to be an issue.

Again on 4/16/11 in NC we had 30 tornadoes and hardly any sun that day.

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All these hype clowns keep throwing out 2011, 2011, 2011, 2011...  The more you use it, the less weight it will carry.  Then, people get tired of it or ignore it.  Then, it comes across as fear mongering or hype.  Where way, it is ridiculous.  Just give the facts and keep the hype away... Some people have a genuine fear of weather and these types of reports don't help.  

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1 minute ago, bamabonners said:

All these hype clowns keep throwing out 2011, 2011, 2011, 2011...  The more you use it, the less weight it will carry.  Then, people get tired of it or ignore it.  Then, it comes across as fear mongering or hype.  Where way, it is ridiculous.  Just give the facts and keep the hype away... Some people have a genuine fear of weather and these types of reports don't help.  

Who's saying this is another 2011?  I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection.

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1 minute ago, ATDoel said:

Who's saying this is another 2011?  I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection.

Lol, yeah I have not seen any direct comparisons with 2011.  But I have seen about 1000000 posts condemning (nonexistent) references to 2011.  This is what we call a "straw man."

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2 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

Who's saying this is another 2011?  I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection.

No one has, some have said since, but no one has compared it to that directly. Literally nitpicking how this isn’t 4/27/11 is a waste of time, nothing we see again may be like that...it doesn’t mean there will be no strong or damaging tornadoes.

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3 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

Who's saying this is another 2011?  I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection.

Literally no one is saying it, but these guys are trying to say people are so that when this isn't the biggest outbreak in history they can go "see I told you."  

 

No one with half a brain thinks today is another 2011, also no one with half a brain thinks today doesn't have potential to be a big event. 

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5 minutes ago, IMADreamer said:

Literally no one is saying it, but these guys are trying to say people are so that when this isn't the biggest outbreak in history they can go "see I told you."  

 

No one with half a brain thinks today is another 2011, also no one with half a brain thinks today doesn't have potential to be a big event. 

Yeah that's how it seems.  It's like walking through an area hit by an EF4 and saying "meh, it's no Joplin, damage was overhyped"

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