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March 2021

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The weak low that almost  had subtropical characteristics will bring some much needed rains  today. The models have elevated convection with locally heavy downpour potential. This tucked in low track looks similar to the tropical systems last summer that affected the area. More of the same on tap for this year? Stay tuned....


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Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly cloudy. There will also be periods of rain, especially during the afternoon. It will be cooler than yesterday. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 56°

Newark: 57°

Philadelphia: 59°

Tomorrow and Friday will be much warmer days.

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe one of these days we'll figure out how to artificially heat up the oceans during springtime.

 

That’d honestly be amazing.

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, what about the area near Bayside, Queens?  I've always thought that part of the city had more natural conditions.  The other area is near JFK or possibly parts of Staten Island.

Bayside might work. Southern Queens is probably more affected by the sea breeze than most of the City.

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9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

For west of the city sure. East of the city it's about when the front passes and winds turn westerly. If it's early to mid afternoon most of us could get over 70. 

The 0z Euro was even more aggressive with the warming for Long Island with the WSW afternoon wind shift. Now has 70s away from the immediate South Shore beaches. That would result in steeper low level lapse rates and wind gust potential over 50 mph. We will have to watch for that sting jet-like feature behind the front.

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0z Euro was even more aggressive with the warming for Long Island with the WSW afternoon wind shift. Now has 70s away from the immediate South Shore beaches. That would result in steeper low level lapse rates and wind gust potential over 50 mph. We will have to watch for that sting jet-like feature behind the front.

 

9273D6D5-766F-4FE0-A7FB-877DF1CB3E16.thumb.png.3f48d6ab3b3ea91ccc9808d69da0e481.png

29203FBB-EB9F-45B8-B04F-25F575533E70.gif.94a87ca5efd3d83cafb489b70b1445b9.gif


C24E173D-047F-4B89-A781-EE001260E512.thumb.png.503adc27c94b510da20b00ba83f8a770.png

 

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a marginal get hoisted for if any convection can be along the front as well, should easily mix winds down

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The weak low that almost  had subtropical characteristics will bring some much needed rains  today. The models have elevated convection with locally heavy downpour potential. This tucked in low track looks similar to the tropical systems last summer that affected the area. More of the same on tap for this year? Stay tuned....


44FC9940-1D58-42BD-95D3-EC58CC9745AC.thumb.png.9e0edfe980d539f637eada25fe18daad.png

 

73CDB31B-3E27-496A-A4B0-3D613EB02647.png.5fc525aa0761274e8628adc8bcd0404d.png

The area between the main tracks just north east of the Bahamas should be primed with OHC this season. Majors create so much upwelling the can effect OHC for several seasons. 

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If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible.

No snow at all in January and March.

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16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible.

No snow at all in January and March.

Outside of the December monster it was a 3 week winter....

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44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible.

No snow at all in January and March.

That’s why 1995-1996 remains the undisputed seasonal snowfall champion. Even with our snowier climate since 2003, it’s been too difficult to get more than 2 months with 10”+ snowfall during any given season in NYC.  2010-2011 may have come closest if we could have kept the snowy pattern going another month or so. 1995-1996 was the last time NYC had 4 months with 10”+ snowfall and 2 with 20”+ in a single season. Part of the issue is that winters have become warmer since the snowfall increase in 2002-2003. So we can’t get the extended cold from late November to April like we had that year. It’s also very difficult to get a perfect Atlantic and Pacific blocking pattern for such a long duration like we had in 1995-1996.

10”+ snowfall months bolded 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6
1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0
1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5
1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7
1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3
2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0
2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5
2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3
2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6
2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0
2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0
2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4
2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9
2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4
2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9
2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4
2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T M 38.6
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31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Outside of the December monster it was a 3 week winter....

Being the climate fully goes to crap I hope we can get one more 95/96 style winter.

Not sure it's possible anymore though. 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible.

No snow at all in January and March.

you can say that about these winters which were 40"...2005-06...1959-60...winters like 2007-08 are nothing winters...

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible.

No snow at all in January and March.

February was one of the best hardcore winter months we've ever had though. Very rare to have snow on the ground for 4 weeks straight in this area. That, combined with the fact that we had a nice December snowstorm, puts this winter in the *very good* category for me. Even though January was bad. 40 inches is a very good winter. I had 44 here, to be exact.

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12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

February was one of the best hardcore winter months we've ever had though. Very rare to have snow on the ground for 4 weeks straight in this area. That, combined with the fact that we had a nice December snowstorm, puts this winter in the *very good* category for me. Even though January was bad. 40 inches is a very good winter. I had 44 here, to be exact.

No complaints here.  Alot of our big winters feature a short but big dump of snow.   2010-11 is another year it all came within about 30 days.  Rest of the winter was largely snowless

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On the GFSv16 upgrade: Unsure if this is anywhere in American Weather.  Below from Phys.org

US weather model upgraded to better forecast extreme events

by Seth Borenstein 

US weather model upgraded to better forecast extreme events In this Monday, March 15, 2021 file photo, snow covers vehicles parked along Second Avenue after a powerful late winter storm dumped more than 2 feet of snow in Denver. The storm shut down major roadways, canceled school and closed the state legislature. On Monday, March 22, 2021, the National Weather Service upgraded its forecast model, with an eye on predicting extreme weather events better and faster. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

The National Weather Service has turbocharged its lagging forecast model to better predict extreme weather events such as hurricanes, blizzards and downpours, as well as day-to-day weather.

By including much higher layers of the atmosphere, increased factoring of ocean waves and other improvements, the weather service's update to its Global Forecast System is trying to catch up with a European weather model that many experts consider superior.

Tests for the past two years show the upgrade, which kicked in Monday, forecast heavy rains and snowfall 15% better five days out and improved hurricane and tropical storm tracks by more than 10%, better pinpointing storm formation five to seven days in advance.

Forecasters say this new model does not predict more rain and snow than actually arrives, which its predecessor had a tendency to do. The new model was significantly better at forecasting the massive Colorado snowstorm earlier this month, getting the storm arrival time and snow amounts far more accurately than the older version, said Vijay Tallapragada, chief of modeling at the agency's Environmental Modeling Center.

Internal studies also showed the new model was generally more accurate earlier on downpours in the Southeast in February 2020, Hurricane Dorian in 2019 and Hurricane Michael in 2018.

"This is for the general day-to-day forecasting and for the extreme events, and you've got to get both right," said National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini.

One main improvement is that the new model captures the atmosphere up to 50 miles high (80 kilometers)—far higher than the old one and has higher resolution at different levels, weather service officials said. This way it better characterizes the jet stream, which transports storms, they said.

Over the past 31 days, there was a stretch of eight straight days when this new version beat the highly-touted European forecast model, but in general over the period the European version was still better, Uccellini said.

"Extreme weather events are becoming stronger and happening more often in a changing climate," said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central's Climate Matters program, who wasn't part of the upgrade. "Weather forecasting improvements that increase accuracy and warning time will give people more time to prepare and will save lives."

 

 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Outside of the December monster it was a 3 week winter....

Yep, outside of the mid-December snowstorm that was gone within a week and 60 degrees on Christmas, it was a 3 week winter (2/1-2/22), January was a total nothing burger then it was lights out completely, nothing at all since 2/22....

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100% snowcover for more than 1/3 of met winter is a win.  I don't care how it comes.  Getting a week of coverage in December, even if it melted with 60 degree temps, isn't super common.  

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3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

100% snowcover for more than 1/3 of met winter is a win.  I don't care how it comes.  Getting a week of coverage in December, even if it melted with 60 degree temps, isn't super common.  

what's common the last 15 years is the Xmas warmup-seems like it's been 55-65 right around xmas for a bunch of years.   

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26 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I dont know if its just me but it feels more humid then it is. DP only 48 but to me it felt more like the upper 50s

 

Dew of 51 here...feels great...

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52 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I dont know if its just me but it feels more humid then it is. DP only 48 but to me it felt more like the upper 50s

Cause it's been SO dry recently.  Wait till tomorrow and Friday.

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No thread initiation by myself, since confidence on anything more than scattered G 43KT for 3/26, 29, 4/1-2 is below average. It will be windy at times. Go for it if you're confident, especially if systems amp up to sfc G50-55 kt potential, in our subforum.  No leafout yet, probably favors a little lower chance of wind damage problems but wet ground may compensate for easier uproots. Still think we need to see more wind in the surface based instability part of the sounding.  Events previously the past 12 months had about 75-90kt at 850MB, and 10m winds around 40kt along the LI coasts, with EC modeled sfc G all showing 50kt+. 

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7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible.

No snow at all in January and March.

Haha. You got a 35 inch winter in Brooklyn and most of it fell in three weeks. We had winter in winter this year. March snow is overrated 

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4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, outside of the mid-December snowstorm that was gone within a week and 60 degrees on Christmas, it was a 3 week winter (2/1-2/22), January was a total nothing burger then it was lights out completely, nothing at all since 2/22....

Niña February 

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