donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 58 minutes ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(45/63), or +10.0. Month to date is 40.6[-0.1]. Should be 44.4[+2.8] by the 29th. The GFS has 14" OF SNOW ON THE 29TH.!! If this is the new GFS, it is going to have a short life span. Lobotomy is indicated. The 06Z has no snow and little rain. 2.2" is now less than 1.0". Mystery solved. 44*(50%RH) here at 6am. (was 43* at 1am.) It’s the outgoing GFS leaving one last memory of its cold and excessive snowfall biases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 51 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: It’s the Classic GFS that has it. V16 has nothing. Wondering why the implementation still hasn’t happened yet unless I’m blind. There was a severe weather outbreak on the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Surprised that we didn't have a late freeze last year when we had snow in May lol. JFK and NYC got to 34 on May 9. That was Central Park’s coldest temperature so late in the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 The latest Euro is warm and dry. Has more wind than rain with the cutter later in the week. So that could be our next chance of 70s. Only has a brief cool down near the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 heat island in effect this morning...30 here for the low...42 in NYC... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Morning thoughts... Under bright sunshine, today will feature springlike warmth. High temperatures will reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 64° Tomorrow will be continued fair and a little cooler. Late in the week, there could be some showers and thundershowers, along with unseasonably warm readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 35 minutes ago, uncle W said: heat island in effect this morning...30 here for the low...42 in NYC... JFK was quite a bit colder than NYC and LGA too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 91 days till the summer solstice / sun angle now on par with mid September. Made it down to a cool radiated 26 last night now up to 47 and expect to be guidance again and top out mid/upper 60s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest Euro is warm and dry. Has more wind than rain with the cutter later in the week. So that could be our next chance of 70s. Only has a brief cool down near the end of the month. Looks very similar to the hot NE anomalies we have been seeing in recent warm seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest Euro is warm and dry. Has more wind than rain with the cutter later in the week. So that could be our next chance of 70s. Only has a brief cool down near the end of the month. I am not sure I buy things being that dry late week even though the GFS is currently showing the same. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am not sure I buy things being that dry late week even though the GFS is currently showing the same. We'll see. Something tells me that 3/29 - 4/4 is probably much wetter and it wouldn't surprise me the prior period trends a bit wetter too once past Tuesday.. Beyond there some stronger ridging into the east towards 4/4 or 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Just now, SACRUS said: Something tells me that 3/29 - 4/4 is probably much wetter and it wouldn't surprise me the prior period trends a bit wetter too once past Tuesday.. I agree although I am not buying the snowfall accumulations the GFS is spitting out. While certainly not impossible it is highly unlikely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will probably have to wait until within about 3 days for exact amounts. But our rainfall has been underperforming so far this month with the very low dewpoints. So I think we are on track for one of the driest Marches since 2010. The NYC average for March is 4.36”. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2021 0.83 11 2 2012 0.96 0 3 2016 1.17 0 4 2013 2.90 0 5 2014 3.67 0 6 2020 3.78 0 7 2019 3.87 0 8 2015 4.72 0 9 2018 5.17 0 10 2017 5.25 0 11 2011 6.19 0 12 2010 10.69 0 How on Earth did we ever get over 10 inches of rain in March 2010? Outside of the midmonth noreaster I remember nothing else that was of note that month. Maybe that's some sort of site error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... Under bright sunshine, today will feature springlike warmth. High temperatures will reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 63° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 64° Tomorrow will be continued fair and a little cooler. Late in the week, there could be some showers and thundershowers, along with unseasonably warm readings. at this rate you should be putting out a forecast for the next time is when we might see some clouds lol. Clear through today and tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am not sure I buy things being that dry late week even though the GFS is currently showing the same. We'll see. it looks like a summer time pattern with the ring of fire getting established well to our north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How on Earth did we ever get over 10 inches of rain in March 2010? Outside of the midmonth noreaster I remember nothing else that was of note that month. Maybe that's some sort of site error? Historic rainfall and flooding in March 2010. While our area had around 10”, SNE was 10-20”. https://www.weather.gov/media/box/science/March_2010_Floods.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 the spread in minimum temperatures 32 or lower between NYC and Newark NJ is getting larger...Newark has 79 so far while NYC has 64...since 1955-56 there has only been five years that Newark did not have more 32 minimums than NYC...1993-94 was even...1992-93 was minus 2...1973-74 was minus 2...1970-71 was minus one...1958-59 was minus 4...2018-19 was plus 23...2012-13 was plus 22...1957-58 was a plus 20... 2010-11 to 2020-21 averaged a plus 16.3 over NYC... 2000-01 to 2009-10 averaged a plus 11.1 over NYC... 1990-01 to 1999-00 averaged a plus 11.0 over NYC... 1980-81 to 1989-90 averaged a plus 12.9 over NYC... 1970-71 to 1979-80 averaged a plus 6.7 over NYC... 1960-61 to 1969-70 averaged a plus 10.6 over NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 40 minutes ago, bluewave said: Historic rainfall and flooding in March 2010. While our area had around 10”, SNE was 10-20”. https://www.weather.gov/media/box/science/March_2010_Floods.pdf that's crazy I only remember the one storm and March being otherwise boring after an exciting February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, uncle W said: the spread in minimum temperatures 32 or lower between NYC and Newark NJ is getting larger...Newark has 79 so far while NYC has 64...since 1955-56 there has only been five years that Newark did not have more 32 minimums than NYC...1993-94 was even...1992-93 was minus 2...1973-74 was minus 2...1970-71 was minus one...1958-59 was minus 4...2018-19 was plus 23...2012-13 was plus 22...1957-58 was a plus 20... 2010-11 to 2020-21 averaged a plus 16.3 over NYC... 2000-01 to 2009-10 averaged a plus 11.1 over NYC... 1990-01 to 1999-00 averaged a plus 11.0 over NYC... 1980-81 to 1989-90 averaged a plus 12.9 over NYC... 1970-71 to 1979-80 averaged a plus 6.7 over NYC... 1960-61 to 1969-70 averaged a plus 10.6 over NYC... wow must be even larger with LGA. and to think the sensor is in a park and yet the gap is getting larger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Some early signs of a hot summer with the dry weather and overperforming temperatures. We also don't have the typical spring -NAO/AO that we've been seeing lately. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 59 minutes ago, uncle W said: the spread in minimum temperatures 32 or lower between NYC and Newark NJ is getting large This was the warmest winter at Newark that recorded 45”+ of snow. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 DJF Avg Temp 1 1996-04-30 78.4 31.6° 2 1961-04-30 73.5 30.8° 3 2011-04-30 68.2 32.9° 4 1978-04-30 64.9 28.6° 5 1994-04-30 64.5 31.0° 6 2014-04-30 61.1 31.3° 7 1958-04-30 58.3 32.8° 8 1967-04-30 57.3 34.3° 9 2003-04-30 53.1 30.7° 10 1948-04-30 51.0 28.9° 11 2010-04-30 47.9 33.7° 12 2004-04-30 47.8 31.8° 13 2015-04-30 46.4 30.4° 14 2021-04-30 45.7 35.2° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Some early signs of a hot summer with the dry weather and overperforming temperatures. We also don't have the typical spring -NAO/AO that we've been seeing lately. We finally cashed in during the winter with that combo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: We finally cashed in during the winter with that combo i am annoyed that a few nyc weather forecasters said we had 28 inches of snow this winter they did not add the snow we had just a few days before winter officially began.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i am annoyed that a few nyc weather forecasters said we had 28 inches of snow this winter they did not add the snow we had just a few days before winter officially began.. also the snow season aint the same as the winter season, they should just talk about the snow season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: i am annoyed that a few nyc weather forecasters said we had 28 inches of snow this winter they did not add the snow we had just a few days before winter officially began.. Compared to even a decade ago, an increasing share of TV weather has essentially become little more than “fast food” of weather, though there remain exceptions. On many stations, it is no longer substantive (details and time spent discussing weather developments have decreased even as the impact of weather has not). On air expertise is sometimes superficial. One sees fewer degreed meteorologists involved. Likely, on account of fewer degreed meteorologists being involved, when it comes to discussions of such things a precipitation type issues, one never sees the deployment of even a single sounding chart to illustrate what is going on aloft. Hence, an avoidable public misperception that it is ‘cold enough’ for snow persists even when there is too much warm air aloft. This is an unfortunate situation. I always advise my friends and co-workers to follow the National Weather Service if they really want a forecast they can rely on. I continue to be impressed by the dedication and expertise possessed by those within the region (ALY, BOX, OKX, and PHI). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Compared to even a decade ago, an increasing share of TV weather has essentially become little more than “fast food” of weather, though there remain exceptions. On many stations, it is no longer substantive (details and time spent discussing weather developments have decreased even as the impact of weather has not). On air expertise is sometimes superficial. One sees fewer degreed meteorologists involved. Likely, on account of fewer degreed meteorologists being involved, when it comes to discussions of such things a precipitation type issues, one never sees the deployment of even a single sounding chart to illustrate what is going on aloft. Hence, an avoidable public misperception that it is ‘cold enough’ for snow persists even when there is too much warm air aloft. This is an unfortunate situation. I always advise my friends and co-workers to follow the National Weather Service if they really want a forecast they can rely on. I continue to be impressed by the dedication and expertise possessed by those within the region (ALY, BOX, OKX, and PHI). Never rely on weather on air personalities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This was the warmest winter at Newark that recorded 45”+ of snow. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 DJF Avg Temp 1 1996-04-30 78.4 31.6° 2 1961-04-30 73.5 30.8° 3 2011-04-30 68.2 32.9° 4 1978-04-30 64.9 28.6° 5 1994-04-30 64.5 31.0° 6 2014-04-30 61.1 31.3° 7 1958-04-30 58.3 32.8° 8 1967-04-30 57.3 34.3° 9 2003-04-30 53.1 30.7° 10 1948-04-30 51.0 28.9° 11 2010-04-30 47.9 33.7° 12 2004-04-30 47.8 31.8° 13 2015-04-30 46.4 30.4° 14 2021-04-30 45.7 35.2° 1957-58 and 2009-10 had less days with a minimum 32 or lower than this year... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Compared to even a decade ago, an increasing share of TV weather has essentially become little more than “fast food” of weather, though there remain exceptions. On many stations, it is no longer substantive (details and time spent discussing weather developments have decreased even as the impact of weather has not). On air expertise is sometimes superficial. One sees fewer degreed meteorologists involved. Likely, on account of fewer degreed meteorologists being involved, when it comes to discussions of such things a precipitation type issues, one never sees the deployment of even a single sounding chart to illustrate what is going on aloft. Hence, an avoidable public misperception that it is ‘cold enough’ for snow persists even when there is too much warm air aloft. This is an unfortunate situation. I always advise my friends and co-workers to follow the National Weather Service if they really want a forecast they can rely on. I continue to be impressed by the dedication and expertise possessed by those within the region (ALY, BOX, OKX, and PHI). there's really no need to anymore. You have smart phones with weather apps built in, the internet-so much more information available at anytime of the day. Gone are the days you had to wait til a 6:20pm weather forecast on Channel 7. With that said, even the local newscasts as a whole are becoming obsolete. It's basically a readback of information most have read online during the day.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Some early signs of a hot summer with the dry weather and overperforming temperatures. We also don't have the typical spring -NAO/AO that we've been seeing lately. I agree-day after day of clear skies and little rain this month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 34 minutes ago, Uniblab said: Never rely on weather on air personalities. There are a few good ones that have full meteorology degrees like Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith and Nick Gregory. But not many. Most other weather on air personalities in this area are terrible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now