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March 2021

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Started this so we can start looking ahead. Modeling has been pretty good on events 7-10 days in advance, just the ptype and latitude of max amounts had been uncertain. Heading into mud season for the countryside, do we see more piling on of the snow, as statistically suggested by Don's February daily posts. If so,  can flooding eventually follow over the interior in the still weak (ening) Nina base state. 

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JB thinks more snow is on the way moving forward with the MJO heading into the cold phases and the shortening of the wave lengths. 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

JB thinks more snow is on the way moving forward with the MJO heading into the cold phases and the shortening of the wave lengths. 

Yeah I'll be surprised if we get nothing even with unfavorable tellies. 

Seems like the cold is still lurking up north too. Old GFS still persistent on that crazy early March arctic shot.

How funny if our coldest temperatures of the winter came in March.

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1972 started March with a record high of 73 breaking the old rlr it was 10 degrees...72 the next day...63 the next but the temp dropped to 26 by midnight and 17 the next morning...add in a little snow and slippery roads with that...mid March saw two sleet storms...April saw record cold and a dusting of snow...March 1974 hit 70 around the 4th and 8th...a few days later it was 20 degrees...March 74 had a late season snowstorm...April had a morning with record cold and a half inch of snow...both months ended up below normal...

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

JB thinks more snow is on the way moving forward with the MJO heading into the cold phases and the shortening of the wave lengths. 

I think March 3rd has some opportunity. Fresh cold air comes in Tuesday night. All just Has to come together 

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As much as I love snow and cold, I’m done this year, the warm season can’t come soon enough, hoping spring will be spring this year not 30s and 40s  into April.

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Hi!  Not yet starting a thread for March 3-6, but add this EPS snowfall by midnight Friday night, as a tease. IF the EPS can maintain this in its 12z/25 cycle, this and the GEFS continues gravitating to a pretty decent east coast trough next week, then would begin a thread.  For now, resides in March.  IF the EPS loses 2" of snow or more, then will forego.  I am aware we have open ended uninteresting threads for most here in our forum, Feb 27 and Feb 28-29, so am cautious.  This for me is a change in the EPS thinking in the 00z/25 cycle. 

Screen Shot 2021-02-25 at 8.11.34 AM.png

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I’ll tentatively guess that we’re probably done with events that give over 8” but I’ve seen March do weirder things. Would not be shocked for one more major snow and maybe 1-2 minor-moderate events before we are truly done with this winter. For now, I’ll enjoy this warmup, however relatively muted it is.

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16 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

I’ll tentatively guess that we’re probably done with events that give over 8” but I’ve seen March do weirder things. Would not be shocked for one more major snow and maybe 1-2 minor-moderate events before we are truly done with this winter. For now, I’ll enjoy this warmup, however relatively muted it is.

lol little snowhitler is back!

welcome back!  you were missed!  (I was saying that to him when I saw his weenies lol not to you)

 

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you can still have double digit totals but I think thats done for the highly urbanized corridor

 

Pi Day and then 2018 tell me that this can totally happen in March, still need roughly 10” to actually meet average for this winter which is shocking to think about overall that we still are slightly below normal for snow

 

if the death band was only so much more south in December we would’ve been at least 5-10” above average 

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6 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Pi Day and then 2018 tell me that this can totally happen in March, still need roughly 10” to actually meet average for this winter which is shocking to think about overall that we still are slightly below normal for snow

 

if the death band was only so much more south in December we would’ve been at least 5-10” above average 

it's weird this winter has been very good but not grade.  what happened (or didn't happen as the case may be) in January really messed us up too

 

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There's a slight chance of something in the March 5-7 timeframe. Looks like a bit of a AO/NAO dip and PNA rise. 

EPS showing a pretty potent though transient eastern trough 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's a slight chance of something in the March 5-7 timeframe. Looks like a bit of a AO/NAO dip and PNA rise. 

EPS showing a pretty potent though transient eastern trough 

Yes, but no threading for me, as of 12z/25 modeling including multiple ensembles. EPS continues though not quite as much snow as previous. The NAO transitions seem to be associated with storminess.  GGEM/GEPS are onto it.  GEFS doesn't have much, yet.  Waiting it out and to see also 2/27 and 2/28-3/1. Temps this time of year and per NAEFS suggest elevation dependent mainly NE&NW suburbs. 

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since 2000 we have seen five very warm March's and five cold March's...five March's with at least 8" of snow and five with no measurable snow...

warmest March...

year.....Temp....snowfall

2012.....50.9.....0

2016.....48.9...0.9"

2010.....48.2.....T

2020.....48.0.....T

2000.....47.2...0.4"

Coldest...

2014.....37.7...0.1"

2015.....38.1..18.6"

2017.....39.2.....9.7'

2005.....39.4.....6.9"

2001.....39.6.....3.8"

snowiest....

2015.....38.1...18.6"

2018.....40.1...11.6"

2019.....41.7...10.4"

2017.....39.2.....9.7"

2009.....42.4.....8.3"

least snowiest...

2012.....48.2.....0

2002.....44.1.....T

2008.....42.6.....T

2010.....48.2.....T

2020.....48.0.....T

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Looks like the EPS begins the first week of March with an omega and east based blocking pattern. Has near to below average temperatures in the Northeast. Sometimes these shorter wavelengths in early March can surprise. So it may take the models time to work out the storm details.

March 1-8

5A71A555-407F-4BE3-A39B-0F75F1AE1E81.jpeg.8a82a695631ff24975afd7521ad7a05a.jpeg

C32598DA-4CB2-4724-B3D3-11C58B5FD3FB.thumb.png.62da95f6d78e5993a9d64537f77fd4ae.png

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Good morning, Thanks much for the above.  Not threading anything yet for March 3-8.  I see potential the 3rd-4th,  6th-8th.  Both significant... all contributing two what the CFS is trying to sell us, an above normal qpf month... CFS has ~6" by the end of March.  Probably overdone but we're in the active axis. 

 

How it all goes down?  Don't know but some of this will be snow/ice interior, especially first week of March.  

I still think we need to pay attention to March 1.  GEFS is sharpening west of our longitude March 1. Sopfar not much response in rain/snow after 15z March 1, but I like the 06z/26  recent trend.  I want to see the V16 grab this in the next couple of 26th cycles and start moving to more qpf Monday and some snow I84 corridor.  Something will have to happen for the v16. Right now, the GGEM is drifting to a GFS op solution, quite a strong CFP Monday night.  Still has opportunity to soften but am thinking all these models still aren't latching onto the most probable solution. Wishcast or reality?  

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Looks like we have a chance for the 5th year since 2014 that NYC drops below 20° during the first week of March. The real feel may be closer to 0° early Tuesday. Winds are forecast to gust  in the 40-50 mph range with temperatures dropping  under 20°. So it may feel colder than many days this winter.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 7
Missing Count
2020-03-07 25 0
2019-03-07 18 0
2018-03-07 32 0
2017-03-07 14 0
2016-03-07 26 0
2015-03-07 12 0
2014-03-07 13 0
2013-03-07 27 0
2012-03-07 25 0
2011-03-07 20 0
2010-03-07 32 0

33E19272-CC69-4285-8238-E306C239A6A6.thumb.png.6556964c3f8496e23bac9f693df498d2.png


72C89C36-E11B-4060-9BC7-15E12D5A7851.thumb.gif.2310346f98d9cbf8badc8d789469f51a.gif

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P&C Has 39 on Tues for me hmmm....

Monday Night
A chance of flurries. Mostly clear, with a low around 27. Blustery.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 39.

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Kudos to the Gfs for sniffing out the brief arctic shot. 

It could still back off but there's a lot of snow cover especially to our north that would help maintain the cold. 

Oddly enough the current forecast is much warmer than what models show. I see 22F Monday night and 41 Wednesday. No way it'll be that warm.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has the MJO going into 1.

CMC is cold next week

CMC offers a chance of a coastal next weekend

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

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Any guesses when in March Central Park will get the 1.4 inches of snow in order to reach 40 inches for the season ??

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Kudos to the Gfs for sniffing out the brief arctic shot. 

It could still back off but there's a lot of snow cover especially to our north that would help maintain the cold. 

Oddly enough the current forecast is much warmer than what models show. I see 22F Monday night and 41 Wednesday. No way it'll be that warm.

upton is usually conservative that far out....

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Snowman19 loves giving weenies out. He has been wrong with everything. 

He has! Which is why we shouldn’t even bother to read or react to what he is doing. He has lost all credibility in this forum and is just a troll. 
 

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If the MJO takes that route along with even some moderate blocking we'll likely see at least one more event.   NYC needs less than 2 inches for 40.    My area needs about 5 for 50.

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