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March 2021

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13 hours ago, uncle W said:

1998 was going to break the record for the least amount of snow when 2-5" fell across the city from I think was a rear end storm...snow on the backside of a storm...another date in March that saw a good size snowstorm is March 22nd...some March 21st-23rd snowstorms in NYC...

3/21-22/64.....4.9"

3/21-22/67.....9.8"

3/22-23/92.....3.2"

3/21-22/98.....5.0"

3/21-22/18.....8.4"

‘97-‘98 was misery for snow lovers. There weren’t even that many storms to track. I remember watching the Nagano Olympics that February and it was 70 degrees in New Jersey. There might have even been a thunderstorm or two.

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20 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Makes sense, I am personally expecting at least one more chance at a >4" snow after this upcoming period but have to reel in expectations at least somewhat. The cold shot at 384 looks interesting, but it's 384 hours lol

The key at this point is probably to keep expectations low for any snowfall amounts near the coast later in the month.The first week of March will feature a cold suppressed storm track pattern. Next week we will get our first early spring warm up. So we will go through the first few weeks of the month without any significant snowfall near the coast. Since 2010, the lower snowfall first half didn’t have that much snow during the second part. The snowiest late Marches featured at least 3” in NYC by March 15th.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Mar 1 to Mar 15
Mar 16 to Mar 31
2020-03-15 0.0 T
2019-03-15 10.4 0
2018-03-15 3.2 8.4
2017-03-15 9.7 T
2016-03-15 0.4 0.5
2015-03-15 14.1 4.5
2014-03-15 0.1 T
2013-03-15 4.0 3.3
2012-03-15 0.0 0
2011-03-15 0.0 1.0
2010-03-15 T 0

 

 

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34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The key at this point is probably to keep expectations low for any snowfall amounts near the coast later in the month.The first week of March will feature a cold suppressed storm track pattern. Next week we will get our first early spring warm up. So we will go through the first few weeks of the month without any significant snowfall near the coast. Since 2010, the lower snowfall first half didn’t have that much snow during the second part. The snowiest late Marches featured at least 3” in NYC by March 15th.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Mar 1 to Mar 15
Mar 16 to Mar 30
2020-03-15 0.0 T
2019-03-15 10.4 0
2018-03-15 3.2 8.4
2017-03-15 9.7 T
2016-03-15 0.4 0.5
2015-03-15 14.1 4.5
2014-03-15 0.1 0
2013-03-15 4.0 3.3
2012-03-15 0.0 0
2011-03-15 0.0 1.0
2010-03-15 T 0

 

 

March 2015 was the greatest March I've ever experienced.

2018 was even better if you include April!

 

 

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Morning thoughts...

In contrast to yesterday, temperatures were in the 20s and 30s this morning rather than teens and 20s. Today will be partly sunny and much milder. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 48°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 54°

Tomorrow will be fair but cooler. Early next week could see the arrival of the warmest weather so far this season.

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How much did NYC get in the April 1956 snow, Don?  and wow Philly got that much snow in April 1990?  How much did JFK get?  Looks like that was a southern storm?

I remember 89-90 for the odd cold dry December followed by record warm January and February and what can only be described as a heat wave in the middle of March!

and March 2015?  wasn't that a cold February and March and we had a single digit low just before March 1st and an 8 inch snowstorm in March?

 

Snowfall amounts for the April 1956 storm included: Boston: 3.1”; Brooklyn (New York Avenue): 3.0”; Hartford: 4.3”; Hempstead-Garden City, NY: 4.0”; Mineola, NY: 4.0”; New York City: 4.2”; Newark: 3.4”; Providence: 1.2”; and, Scarsdale, NY: 5.0”

No data is available from JFK. The trace shown for LGA is suspect.

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While these SST patterns can shift again before the summer, this is the lowest February PMM value since 2012. It’s an interesting development considering how this winter was so different from La Niña expectations.If this pattern can hold into the summer, then it may allow the WAR to link up with a ridge over the Plains. Recent summers featured more of a WAR pattern with lower heights over the Plains. This allowed large numbers of 90° highs and 70° lows with high humidity and onshore flow. But the numerous 100° days from 2010 to 2013 were absent. So the WAR linking up with the Plains ridge could allow a chance of 100° days to join the higher dewpoints of recent years. So we‘ll have to see how the pattern evolves.


https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/RealTime/PMM.txt

2021   2  -2.64  
2012   2  -4.34 

 

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Snowfall amounts for the April 1956 storm included: Boston: 3.1”; Brooklyn (New York Avenue): 3.0”; Hartford: 4.3”; Hempstead-Garden City, NY: 4.0”; Mineola, NY: 4.0”; New York City: 4.2”; Newark: 3.4”; Providence: 1.2”; and, Scarsdale, NY: 5.0”

No data is available from JFK. The trace shown for LGA is suspect.

the 56 storm started as rain but changed to snow in the morning and ended in the afternoon...LGA climate data has 6.4"...

IPS-A10EB500-60DD-4507-B44B-DC9EF477546E.pdf (noaa.gov)

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks. Do you have a link to the site. My bookmark goes back to an NCDC.NOAA.gov page that has been replaced by the one you referenced.

Local Climatological Data Publication - Select Month | IPS | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) (noaa.gov)

IPS - Record of Climatological Observations - Select State | IPS | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) (noaa.gov)

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

While these SST patterns can shift again before the summer, this is the lowest February PMM value since 2012. It’s an interesting development considering how this winter was so different from La Niña expectations.If this pattern can hold into the summer, then it may allow the WAR to link up with a ridge over the Plains. Recent summers featured more of a WAR pattern with lower heights over the Plains. This allowed large numbers of 90° highs and 70° lows with high humidity and onshore flow. But the numerous 100° days from 2010 to 2013 were absent. So the WAR linking up with the Plains ridge could allow a chance of 100° days to join the higher dewpoints of recent years. So we‘ll have to see how the pattern evolves.


https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/RealTime/PMM.txt

2021   2  -2.64  
2012   2  -4.34 

 

I think we're due for a scorcher. 

We haven't had an insane European style heatwave yet.

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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we're due for a scorcher. 

We haven't had an insane European style heatwave yet.

11 yr solar cycle is this year too.  77, 88, 99, 2010 all torches

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45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we're due for a scorcher. 

We haven't had an insane European style heatwave yet.

The only slightly cooler summers since 2010 were 2014 and 2017. From 2010 to 2013, we had drier heat with more westerly flow. The big ridges and droughts over the Plains allowed more 100° days. 2015 to 2020 was all about  moist heat with more onshore flow. High numbers of 90°+ maxes and 70+mins with record numbers of days with 75°+ dewpoints. So the heat indices above 100° made it feel like we had numerous 100° days. We usually have to wait until the summer starts to see where the primary ridges that dictate the wind direction set up.

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Still looking the same.      Kicks up AN by the 9th.      And No Snow.

T here up from 32* at 6am to 52* at 3pm.    53* at 4:30pm.

1614772800-uHQMIKniBw8.png

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the summer coming up is on the 11 year hot summer cycle...2010...1999...1988...1977...1966...1955...1944...all these years were much warmer than uaual...does 2021 continue the cycle?...

1933 and 1911 had 100 degrees a few days...go back more and there is no cycle...

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28 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the summer coming up is on the 11 year hot summer cycle...2010...1999...1988...1977...1966...1955...1944...all these years were much warmer than uaual...does 2021 continue the cycle?...

1933 and 1911 had 100 degrees a few days...go back more and there is no cycle...

I never would have guessed that summer of 1977, sandwiched between a solid and severe winter, and in the middle of talk of a new ice age, would be among the warmest winters.

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1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I never would have guessed that summer of 1977, sandwiched between a solid and severe winter, and in the middle of talk of a new ice age, would be among the warmest winters.

With a NYC average of temperature of 75.0°, it wasn’t really a hot summer by recent standards. But it was the only July in NYC during the 1970s with 3 days reaching 100°. The sensor was in the open sunlight back then. 100° is a struggle now since all the foliage growing over the site keeps it cooler. Newark only had 2 days reach 100° with no 100s at LGA and JFK.

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Under brilliant sunshine, temperatures soared into the 50s across most of the region today. Tomorrow will be fair but cooler.

Overall, the first week of March will see variable temperatures, even as the week will very likely average cooler than normal. Another short but sharp cold shot is possible Friday through the weekend. Afterward, a strong warming trend should commence. Parts of the region will likely see their warmest temperatures so far during the second week of March. The 60° isotherm could extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and perhaps its highest temperatures since late November.

Statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is suggests temperature anomalies toward or just below the bottom of that range for the first half of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March.

The SOI was -6.08 today. The SOI has now been negative for four consecutive days. The last time that occurred was October 25-29, 2020 when the SOI was negative for five consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.300 today.

On March 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.046 (RMM). The March 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.007 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

 

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Good Thursday morning! 00z/4 ensemble agree that the quiet weather pattern of early March becomes more active mid month onward along with increasing chances of mixed wintry precipitation in the NYC subforum, especially I84.

Both ensembles, either via climo or the general reduction of positive temperature anomalies after the 12th, allows for increasing snow cover I80 northward (northern USA).  So, for me,  hope continues, but whether it allows for another snow event for the primary NYC membership, tbd?  

I am confident that the I84 segment of our membership will have ice and snow events redeveloping mid month.  Just too early to shut down winter.  

Meanwhile the SD continues to erode northward, despite colder temps the next few days.  Should be good for garden cleanup around the 9th-10th when as noted by many prior to this post, the first 60F develops, away from the colder Atlantic SST influence.

--

Yes, saw the 06z GFSv15 snowstorm for LI-I80, but not threading... 240 hours away and the near future implementation of the GFS v16 doesn't have it. Hopefully one of these between the 14th of March and April 5 can produce for NYC?  Added these last 2 lines at 553/4.

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Looks like the new GFS upgrade will be on March 17th. It seems to have fixed the cold and suppressed bias. It did much better than the v15 with the December snowstorm. 

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn21-20gfs_v16.0.pdf

Subject: Upgrade of NCEP Global Forecast Systems (GFS) to v16
         Effective March 17, 2021
Effective on or about March 17, 2021, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) from version 15.3 to 16.0. NCEP also will roll in the operational standalone 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

 

A9F01A14-9D1E-45CA-A38E-1EC232AA73CD.thumb.png.0f0ab1d2ac555c96efbe0aca7eb47ede.png

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The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(33/47), or -1.0.

The GFS  still has renegade cold on the 13th, (now on the 15th) and then some snow on the 15th.    CMC has 60* for the 13th.      V16 operational after the snow? lol.

41*(62%RH) here at 6am.  (was 46* at midnite)     40* at 7am.         43* by 3pm.

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

With a NYC average of temperature of 75.0°, it wasn’t really a hot summer by recent standards. But it was the only July in NYC during the 1970s with 3 days reaching 100°. The sensor was in the open sunlight back then. 100° is a struggle now since all the foliage growing over the site keeps it cooler. Newark only had 2 days reach 100° with no 100s at LGA and JFK.

The blackout occurring on one of the hottest days of the year added to the legend of that summer.

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Morning thoughts...

Today will see a continuation of the recent fair weather. It will be a little cooler than yesterday was. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 50°

A dry but cool weekend lies ahead. Next week could see the arrival of the warmest weather so far this season.

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Larry Cosgrove is on board with a return to cold and  potential snow in the 2nd half of March.

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If you you look at the instances of significant snow events from April 10th and later, for the Long Island region, they aren’t nearly as abundant today as they were in the past. 

Over the weekend I’ll try to dig up some documents I have for Long Island. “Significant snow”, or better yet what many may deem as “plowable” snow events, from April 10th and on, were more common for the Long Island region from centuries ago up to around 1870s or so. After the 1870s cases really drop off significantly. Many believe it to be due to the IR era. 
 

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2 hours ago, TARCweather said:

If you you look at the instances of significant snow events from April 10th and later, for the Long Island region, they aren’t nearly as abundant today as they were in the past. 

Over the weekend I’ll try to dig up some documents I have for Long Island. “Significant snow”, or better yet what many may deem as “plowable” snow events, from April 10th and on, were more common for the Long Island region from centuries ago up to around 1870s or so. After the 1870s cases really drop off significantly. Many believe it to be due to the IR era. 
 

heres one for you...

1875...

https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50419405

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1875-04-14/ed-1/seq-6/

https://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1875-04-14/ed-1/seq-7/

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