CIK62 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 43degs., (35/50), or about +2.0. No precipitation till mid-month when some of it may be snow. The 18th. could be as cold as today, after the jump up to visit the 70's on the 12th,13th. 23*(45%RH) here at 6am. (was 28* at midnite) 32* by Noon. 38* by4pm. 35* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Euro coming in even warmer now for next week. Has the first 60s of the year by next Tuesday. Then it has a chance for some of the warmer spots to reach 70° by later next week. Looks like the big AO rise will really amp up the SE Ridge for a while. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Next possible threat is around St Patty's day? 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and unseasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 36° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 38° A dry but cool weekend lies ahead. Next week will likely see the arrival of the warmest weather so far this season. Cooler weather could develop near or after mid-month. Snow statistics for the March 16-31, 1991-2020 base period: New York City: Average: 1.7”; 53% cases with measurable snow; 23% cases with 4” or more; most snow: 9.4”, 1992 Philadelphia: Average: 1.2”; 43% cases with measurable snow; 10% cases with 4” or more; most snow: 7.6”, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next possible threat is around St Patty's day? I’m ready for spring by that point. The snow cover probably wouldn’t even last long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: The teleconnections still look warm with a +AO and SE Ridge around mid-March. After the 15th the pattern will turn colder unfortunately 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: that was a much more violent black out than the one we had in 2003 in August (did I get the year right lol) That’s the year. I was in Florida on vacation and flew home the next day. Newark Liberty was open (likely running on backup power) but the lights were still out at home, so we dropped our bags off and found an open restaurant to keep cool in. Interestingly, the outage was more sporadic in my area. Some people never lost power. ‘77 was definitely a bad one. Lots of tension from the Son of Sam killings and the city was in economic turmoil. A lot of frustration spilled over when the blackout happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS has been pushing back the cool down in recent runs. The SE Ridge lingers a few days longer now. But it still looks like we could eventually see some cooler temperatures return. New run Old run hopefully this wont be one of those stupid cool/rainy springs and be much more like 2010 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS has been pushing back the cool down in recent runs. The SE Ridge lingers a few days longer now. But it still looks like we could eventually see some cooler temperatures return. New run Old run Surface temps could still be BN with AN heights like in February. Low heights over Canada guarantee BDCF by mid-late Match. Looks like MJO will get into the cooler phases and possibly traverse 8-2. Less MJO circle today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: hopefully this wont be one of those stupid cool/rainy springs and be much more like 2010 The spring of 2010 was a real outlier. Spring is the slowest warming season for us since 1981. So our springs usually feature a back and forth between warm and cool. But the warmer temperatures still have won out. Just not as lopsided as the other seasons. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/5/1981-2021?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1981&endtrendyear=2020 Seasonal warming for our area since 1981 DJF.........+0.8° F per decade MAM......+0.4°F JJA........+0.7°F SON.......+0.8°F 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The spring of 2010 was a real outlier. Spring is the slowest warming season for us since 1981. So our springs usually feature a back and forth between warm and cool. But the warmer temperatures still have won out. Just not as lopsided as the other seasons. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/5/1981-2021?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1981&endtrendyear=2020 Seasonal warming for our area since 1981 DJF.........+0.8° F per decade MAM......+0.4°F JJA........+0.7°F SON.......+0.8°F the weird thing is these warm springs seemed to be much more common during the 90s up to 2002.....remember 1991 (earliest 90 on record up to that point, later broken by 2010), 1993 also had a very warm spring and both years are tied as the years with the most 90 degree days (should've been broken in 2010). And 2002 had that amazing three day heatwave in April to match 1976 but unlike 1976 we had a very hot and dry summer that lasted well into September! Weird that summer is heating up faster than spring is (maybe because of warm mins) since theoretically summer anomalies in the positive direction should be the most difficult to obtain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the weird thing is these warm springs seemed to be much more common during the 90s up to 2002.....remember 1991 (earliest 90 on record up to that point, later broken by 2010), 1993 also had a very warm spring and both years are tied as the years with the most 90 degree days (should've been broken in 2010). And 2002 had that amazing three day heatwave in April to match 1976 but unlike 1976 we had a very hot and dry summer that lasted well into September! Weird that summer is heating up faster than spring is (maybe because of warm mins) since theoretically summer anomalies in the positive direction should be the most difficult to obtain. The more slowly warming spring temperatures relative to the other seasons is reflected in the new 1991-2020 climate normals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: hopefully this wont be one of those stupid cool/rainy springs and be much more like 2010 I'm hoping the 11 yr torch solar cycle works for us-if so, I would think we turn warm quick come mid April and beyond.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I'm hoping the 11 yr torch solar cycle works for us-if so, I would think we turn warm quick come mid April and beyond.... This spring will ply out like every other spring the last 10 years. Cold windy until late April then 80 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: This spring will ply out like every other spring the last 10 years. Cold windy until late April then 80 You've been getting a lot of weenies lately lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: This spring will ply out like every other spring the last 10 years. Cold windy until late April then 80 I thought last year was fairly decent 4/1 and on. Dry and cool. I'd take that again..... 2019 was horrid with constant rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: You've been getting a lot of weenies lately lol He is getting annoying. It is sad how a person is so petty like this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 I have my shovels ready 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: You've been getting a lot of weenies lately lol From the same person........lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 With the Arctic Oscillation (AO) poised to rise sharply, the latest EPS ensembles continue to suggest a short period in the medium-range where the 500 mb height anomalies are reasonably similar to those that prevailed in the means during the March 9-15, 2020 period. AO: March 9-15, 2020: Average: +3.366 High: +3.993 Low: +2.728 That was a very warm period. Select temperature data: Boston: Average High: 56.9° Average Low: 37.3° Mean: 47.0° Highest: 72° New York City: Average High: 60.7° Average Low: 45.0° Mean: 52.9° Highest: 72° Philadelphia: Average High: 63.6° Average Low: 43.1° Mean: 53.4° Highest: 74° The March 11-13 period could see the highest maximum and minimum temperatures. Some daily record high minimum and maximum temperature records could be challenged if the warmer guidance prevails. There remains a distinct possibility that the second half of March could see additional measurable snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Next week will hit 70 bank on it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have my shovels ready I rarely shovel anything past mid march. My house/driveway face due south with full sun-gets vaporized in no time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 The AO reversal in February continues to set records. This is the first February with a daily -5 reading and only a monthly -1 average. The previous -5 drops in 2010, 1978, and 1969 all had -3 and lower monthly averages. https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table 2021 -2.484 -1.191 2010 -2.587 -4.266 1978 -0.347 -3.014 1969 -2.967 -3.114 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I rarely shovel anything past mid march. My house/driveway face due south with full sun-gets vaporized in no time. Also the time of day/night snowfall determines whether we have to shovel - overnight snowfalls produce the greatest accumulation in late March/early April especially if intensity is lacking............also now much indication on the 12Z models when or if the next snowfall will materialize around the bulk of the metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Also the time of day/night snowfall determines whether we have to shovel - overnight snowfalls produce the greatest accumulation in late March/early April especially if intensity is lacking............ yep-a start around 7pm is perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 17 hours ago, rclab said: The best, until that time, Will. I no longer book anything that far in the future. As always ..... i lied and i came back because i have nowhere else to go also i just want to say rclab, you are an incredibly pleasant person. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 On 3/5/2021 at 12:24 PM, Will - Rutgers said: i lied and i came back because i have nowhere else to go also i just want to say rclab, you are an incredibly pleasant person. I don't know rclab, never met him, but I like him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Next week will hit 70 bank on it Bring it on. Frankly, I can't wait for the nice weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Beautiful out Just came back from a nice jog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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