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March 2021

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35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Funny how blocking just shows up out of nowhere sometimes....although this year it's not as much of a surprise given how much of it we've seen so far.

We’ll probably see a warm up during the 2nd week of March as there is another big AO rise forecast.

BA33E817-1EF8-4874-B639-E3D478252A98.thumb.gif.080871ef945b7fc632f923bf1e3b1029.gif

 

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Biggest snowfalls in NYC
21.0" 3/12-14/1888
18.1" 3/7-8/1941
14.5" 3/3-4/1960
14.5" 3/1-2/1914
12.0" 3/15-16/1896
11.8" 3/20-21/1958
11.6" 3/18-19/1956
10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896
..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949

..8.6" 3/5/1981

..8.4" 3/21-22/2018

..8.3" 3/1-2/2009

..8.0" 3/18-19/1892

..7.7" 3/6-7 1915

..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005

..7.6" 3/6-7/1916

..7.6" 3/14/2017

..7.5" 3/5/2015

..7.3" 3/6-7/1923

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

..6.7" 3/4-5/1917

..6.7" 3/16-17/1956

..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968

..6.5" 3/5/1902

..6.2" 3/19/1992

..6.0" 3/6-7/1870

..6.0" 3/19/1890

..6.0" 3/10/1907

..6.0" 3/15/1906

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We’ll probably see a warm up during the 2nd week of March as there is another big AO rise forecast.

BA33E817-1EF8-4874-B639-E3D478252A98.thumb.gif.080871ef945b7fc632f923bf1e3b1029.gif

 

Yeah, the longer range stuff is showing 60 degree potential for the 2nd week of March. Should be a very nice warmup after next weekend's cold shot.

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah, the longer range stuff is showing 60 degree potential for the 2nd week of March. Should be a very nice warmup after next weekend's cold shot.

That is if it gets pushed back like this upcoming week did.

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February 2021 finished with a mean temperature of 34.0°, which was 1.3° below normal. Tomorrow will see any rain come to an end with partial clearing. It will become increasingly windy. Temperatures could surge into the upper 40s and lower 50s before falling sharply.

The first week of March will see variable temperatures, even as the week will very likely average cooler than normal. A short but sharp cold shot is possible both early in that week and toward the end of the first week of March. Afterward, the ensembles are in good agreement that there will be a warming trend. The 2/28 12z EPS forecasts 500 mb height anomalies that are reasonably similar to those that prevailed during March 9-15, 2020 at 240 hours. That period saw much above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Therefore, the potential exists that parts of the region could see their warmest temperatures so far during the second week of March. Overall, it appears that March will wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal.

Statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is suggests temperature anomalies toward the bottom of that range for the first half of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through mid-March.

The SOI was -5.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.408 today.

For winter 2020-21, the preliminary AO average was -1.758. The AO was negative on 83% of days, at or below -1.000 on 74% of days, and at or below -2.000 on 54% of days. The lowest figure was -5.314 on February 11. The highest figure was +2.980 on February 26.

On February 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.994 (RMM). The February 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.048.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

 

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On 2/26/2021 at 5:00 PM, Allsnow said:

He has! Which is why we shouldn’t even bother to read or react to what he is doing. He has lost all credibility in this forum and is just a troll. 
 

Yup. His La Niña obsession this winter failed. 

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13 hours ago, uncle W said:


Biggest snowfalls in NYC
21.0" 3/12-14/1888
18.1" 3/7-8/1941
14.5" 3/3-4/1960
14.5" 3/1-2/1914
12.0" 3/15-16/1896
11.8" 3/20-21/1958
11.6" 3/18-19/1956
10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896
..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949

..8.6" 3/5/1981

..8.4" 3/21-22/2018

..8.3" 3/1-2/2009

..8.0" 3/18-19/1892

..7.7" 3/6-7 1915

..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005

..7.6" 3/6-7/1916

..7.6" 3/14/2017

..7.5" 3/5/2015

..7.3" 3/6-7/1923

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

..6.7" 3/4-5/1917

..6.7" 3/16-17/1956

..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968

..6.5" 3/5/1902

..6.2" 3/19/1992

..6.0" 3/6-7/1870

..6.0" 3/19/1890

..6.0" 3/10/1907

..6.0" 3/15/1906

My favorite was March 2009, with March 2015 right behind it.

 

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7 hours ago, Neblizzard said:

Yup. His La Niña obsession this winter failed. 

Yeah just hearing him talk about enso makes me want to dump all the plastic in the world right into the Pacific and end enso forever so no one ever uses it anymore because the Pacific Ocean is just a big heaping pile of trash.

 

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the inverse relationship between February and March snowfall works out again. Since our shift to a snowier climate in 2002-2003, the previous 4 Februaries with over 20” in NYC finished March with a T to 3.5”. The Februaries with under 5” had snowier Marches.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Feb
Mar
 
2010 36.9 T  
2014 29.0 0.1  
2006 26.9 1.3  
2003 26.1 3.5  
2021 26.0 M  

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Feb
Mar
 
2020 T T  
2012 0.2 0.0  
2004 0.7 4.8  
2019 2.6 10.4  
2007 3.8 6.0  
2016 4.0 0.9  
2009 4.3 8.3  
2011 4.8 1.0  
2018 4.9 11.6  


 

I'd muchhhhhhhhhhhhhh rather have the snowy February than the "snowy" March

When was the last time we had 20" of snow in March lol.

Interesting with over 2 ft of snow this February and it's still only the 5th snowiest since 2003.  Of course we should also include the 2" that fell on February 1 eve but that's another story.  How come 2014-15 isn't on either of these lists?  That had a nice JFM combo!

 

 

 

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February limped into the finish line to end at 34.2[-1.1].          The last 7 days of the month were +5.0.

The first 8 days of March are averaging 36degs.(29/42), or -4.0.   No Snow.     Then, as before, the GFS goes nuts and the next 9 days after that are averaging 55degs.(47/64), or +12.0.    A leap of 5 or 6 weeks into the future.      Then an Arctic push about the 18th???       What would it mean at that point?      Never mind since LR outputs say it never gets across the country anyway.

43*(98%RH) here at 6am. Rain.    Was 47* at 2am. and 42* at 5am.      45* by Noon.    47* at 1pm.        36* by 11pm.

Remember when I showed a 975mb low and snow/rain for time frame near March 1.         The cold is in with the wind, but storm is way north.       However  we do have  a Gale  Warning out of the setup:

 

Issued To: Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm

HEADLINE: Gale Warning issued March 01 at 4:27AM EST until March 02 at 6:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton

DESCRIPTION: ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EST TUESDAY...
* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northwest winds 25 to 35 kt with
gusts up to 45 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet expected. For the Small
Craft Advisory, west winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
and seas of 4 to 5 feet.
* WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm.
* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM
EST Tuesday. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 PM EST this
afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could
capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

INSTRUCTIONS: Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City)

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Morning thoughts...

Any rain will depart this morning. The clouds will gradually give way to increasing sunshine. It will become increasingly windy. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s across much of the region before falling sharply later in the day. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 49°
Newark: 51°
Philadelphia: 53°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny, blustery and cold.

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 37.1°
Average temperature: 38.0°
Average error: 1.9°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 37.6°
Average temperature: 37.8°
Average error: 2.0°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 38.9°
Average temperature: 39.1°
Average error: 1.6°

 

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so far NYC has 52 days with a minimum 32 or lower this year...this year might make 60 if NYC gets nine more this month and April...it needs less than 2" of snow to make 40" for the season...Some other years with 40" of snow with 25% less normal freezing days...

winter.....32 min.....snowfall...

2020-21.....52.........38.6"

1957-58.....59.........44.7"

1948-49.....62.........46.6"

2005-06.....67.........40.0"

2017-18.....69.........40.9"

some others...

2015-16.....46.........32.8"

2016-17.....49.........30.2"

1982-83.....53.........27.2"

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17 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah, the longer range stuff is showing 60 degree potential for the 2nd week of March. Should be a very nice warmup after next weekend's cold shot.

Yeah, the GEFS is coming in even stronger with the AO rise. So it looks like we have a shot at our first 60°+ of the year sometime during the 2nd week of March. The ridiculous AO volatility since the February record rise continues.

05DE6844-882D-4907-99E4-1BF72A18A686.thumb.gif.ce06e0622f51ad2c5c4949ccdb99fb1a.gif

 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the GEFS is coming in even stronger with the AO rise. So it looks like we have a shot at our first 60°+ of the year sometime during the 2nd week of March. The ridiculous AO volatility since the February record rise continues.

05DE6844-882D-4907-99E4-1BF72A18A686.thumb.gif.ce06e0622f51ad2c5c4949ccdb99fb1a.gif

 

I have heard that the NAO is the most important teleconnection  for March. I'm not sure how warm it will get with the MJO going into 8 and 1.

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have heard that the NAO is the most important teleconnection  for March. I'm not sure how warm it will get with the MJO going into 8 and 1.

Totally expecting 60s next week and then a 10” snow the week after. I think we’re all due for a March surprise.

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25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have heard that the NAO is the most important teleconnection  for March. I'm not sure how warm it will get with the MJO going into 8 and 1.

The AO has had a much bigger influence this winter than the MJO. We got our biggest snowstorm of the winter in early February when the MJO was in an amplified +2 phase 6. The AO was the more dominant force. Now that we are finally getting a MJO 8, the AO is spiking  to +2 or +3 becoming the greater factor  next week.

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I have heard that the NAO is the most important teleconnection  for March. I'm not sure how warm it will get with the MJO going into 8 and 1.

P8-1 isn’t cold for March. 2-3 are cold for March 

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This will be the first time since 2014 and 2015 that we had to with until March for the first 60°+ of the year.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 01-11 (2020) 11-26 (2019) 275
Mean 02-08 12-19 313
Maximum 03-26 (2015) 12-28 (2018) 349
2021 - - - - -
2020 01-11 (2020) 69 12-25 (2020) 61 348
2019 02-04 (2019) 61 11-26 (2019) 61 294
2018 01-12 (2018) 61 12-28 (2018) 60 349
2017 01-12 (2017) 66 12-05 (2017) 61 326
2016 02-20 (2016) 61 12-27 (2016) 60 310
2015 03-26 (2015) 62 12-27 (2015) 61 275
2014 03-11 (2014) 66 12-25 (2014) 62 288

 

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First post here, I'm Andy, typical 33 year old weather buff that my wife rolls her eyes at.

 

Decent winter here. Looking for a warm March.  Not a fan if big storms, the nickel and dime events are the easy money maker for me being I work for a village municipality.  

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first time since 2014 and 2015 that we had to with until March for the first 60°+ of the year.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 01-11 (2020) 11-26 (2019) 275
Mean 02-08 12-19 313
Maximum 03-26 (2015) 12-28 (2018) 349
2021 - - - - -
2020 01-11 (2020) 69 12-25 (2020) 61 348
2019 02-04 (2019) 61 11-26 (2019) 61 294
2018 01-12 (2018) 61 12-28 (2018) 60 349
2017 01-12 (2017) 66 12-05 (2017) 61 326
2016 02-20 (2016) 61 12-27 (2016) 60 310
2015 03-26 (2015) 62 12-27 (2015) 61 275
2014 03-11 (2014) 66 12-25 (2014) 62 288

 

The amount of 60 degree days on/around Christmas is ridiculous, but also not surprising. Lol

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1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

The amount of 60 degree days on/around Christmas is ridiculous, but also not surprising. Lol

GRINCHY

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1 hour ago, nyrangers1022 said:

First post here, I'm Andy, typical 33 year old weather buff that my wife rolls her eyes at.

 

Decent winter here. Looking for a warm March.  Not a fan if big storms, the nickel and dime events are the easy money maker for me being I work for a village municipality.  

Welcome aboard!

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first time since 2014 and 2015 that we had to with until March for the first 60°+ of the year.

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 01-11 (2020) 11-26 (2019) 275
Mean 02-08 12-19 313
Maximum 03-26 (2015) 12-28 (2018) 349
2021 - - - - -
2020 01-11 (2020) 69 12-25 (2020) 61 348
2019 02-04 (2019) 61 11-26 (2019) 61 294
2018 01-12 (2018) 61 12-28 (2018) 60 349
2017 01-12 (2017) 66 12-05 (2017) 61 326
2016 02-20 (2016) 61 12-27 (2016) 60 310
2015 03-26 (2015) 62 12-27 (2015) 61 275
2014 03-11 (2014) 66 12-25 (2014) 62 288

 

60's up the Wazzoo incoming:

1614621600-jZufrHllzi8.png

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A cold air mass is overspreading the region. Tomorrow will be fair but unseasonably cold. Moderation will quickly follow.

Overall, the first week of March will see variable temperatures, even as the week will very likely average cooler than normal. Another short but sharp cold shot is possible toward the end of the first week of March. Afterward, the ensembles are in good agreement that there will be a warming trend. The 3/1 12z EPS forecasts 500 mb height anomalies that are reasonably similar to those that prevailed during March 9-15, 2020 at 216 hours. That period saw much above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Therefore, the potential exists that parts of the region could see their warmest temperatures so far during the second week of March.

Statistical guidance based on the state of the ENSO and forecast teleconnections implies that the first half of March could wind up generally 1°-3° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest dynamical guidance is suggests temperature anomalies toward the bottom of that range for the first half of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March.

The SOI was -8.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.356 today.

On February 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.886 (RMM). The February 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.990.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

 

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2 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

The board was dying a slow death, not many posters at the end. Eventually the domain name expired and I guess the owner is not renewing. 

Sorry to hear. Had a good run though. Think it was around since 2007.  Social media has really taken over in place of many forums such as that.

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