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OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21


wdrag
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9 minutes ago, doncat said:

Congrats...3.7" here on si.

 

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Monmouth magic strikes again ;)  40" on the season?

 

 

Thanks and almost - this event brings me to 38.9" on the season (31.1" since Jan 31st). Today was certainly the definition of a CNJ/Monmouth jackpot. It appears C-NJ/N-NJ, at least through today, has been one of the most favored regions snowfall wise relative to normal, in the DCA-BOS corridor. Our stretch of snow cover was 8 days in December, and Jan 31st-present thus far.

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20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Back home.  Freezing drizzle in Holbrook.  I'll go with whatever ISP or the other Holbrook guys report as a snow total.  

Didn't bother measuring either.. only interested in +6-inches this year :weenie: it has been drizzling the past hour and a half so I'm sure that has compacted the amounts too by now

wasn't expecting much out here anyway but that burst of heavy snow with huge flakes was nice while it lasted and good to have the snowpack freshen up again..

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NYC members,  think we can muster 2 more inches between the 1PM ob today and 1PM tomorrow?  If so, you-we'll be ranked #6 NYC snowiest Feb.  3" is probably asking too much?? Pretty soon we should erode the the sleet part of the NYC sounding (not necessarily at JFK)  and go over to periods of snow, of varying intensity through 3PM Friday.  Shoot me a notification of NYC amounts, if you think of it, as we cross 7P, midnight, 7A tomorrow NYC CP reports.  I may not be online too much tonight. I am expecting another 3-5" here n Wantage by this tomorrow. Maybe I'm too bullish on this but unless flake size is tiny (which i doubt due to deep moisture and oncoming mid level vorticity)...we should have some plowable snow up here by morning. Bring to catch you all down there in CP.  

By this time tomorrow, we may see two bands of 6+, one where it is now down near I195 (south of I78) and one just to north of I80.  Modeling sometimes does a very good job picking up bands.  Let's wait it out and see if they were right. 

Later, Walt

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3 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Thanks and almost - this event brings me to 38.9" on the season (31.1" since Jan 31st). Today was certainly the definition of a CNJ/Monmouth jackpot. It appears C-NJ/N-NJ, at least through today, has been one of the most favored regions snowfall wise relative to normal, in the DCA-BOS corridor. Our stretch of snow cover was 8 days in December, and Jan 31st-present thus far.

you'll probably reach 40" tomorrow, I hope NYC does too

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYC members,  think we can muster 2 more inches between the 1PM ob today and 1PM tomorrow?  If so, you-we'll be ranked #6 NYC snowiest Feb.  3" is probably asking too much?? Pretty soon we should erode the the sleet part of the NYC sounding (not necessarily at JFK)  and go over to periods of snow, of varying intensity through 3PM Friday.  Shoot me a notification of NYC amounts, if you think of it, as we cross 7P, midnight, 7A tomorrow NYC CP reports.  I may not be online too much tonight. I am expecting another 3-5" here n Wantage by this tomorrow. Maybe I'm too bullish on this but unless flake size is tiny (which i doubt due to deep moisture and oncoming mid level vorticity)...we should have some plowable snow up here by morning. Bring to catch you all down there in CP.  

By this time tomorrow, we may see two bands of 6+, one where it is now down near I195 (south of I78) and one just to north of I80.  Modeling sometimes does a very good job picking up bands.  Let's wait it out and see if they were right. 

Later, Walt

I'd be happy getting NYC to 40  JFK looks to be all snow by 7 AM tomorrow- when precip is heavier it'll be snow when it's lighter it'll be something else....this is a typical early spring kind of storm

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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Since Central Park's 1 pm snowfall report, an additional 0.06" precipitation fell as snow. Yet, unlike JFK and LGA, Central Park reported no additional snowfall. Whether this will result in an undermeasurement remains to be seen, as sometimes Central Park is slow to report its figures.

what are the airport totals so far Don?  No one ever posts them anymore

NYC records are already tainted with regards to wind speed and summer temps, I'm not sure why we continue to use them.

 

 

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

its like the storm I talked about that happened near the end of Feb 1974...NYC 2"...Freehold 10"...1973-74 was a usefull analog...

 

Indeed, it was. The stratospheric warming wildcard was fascinating, as if that evolved more-so in a displacement rather than split fashion, January likely would have been colder. Retrospectively, the NAO will be near neutral December, negative January, and positive February. But the SSW prevented us from receiving the cold/snow results until later. I thought we'd have most of our snow this winter within a month stretch, but was off on the timing by about 15 days. The magnitude of the snowy period was more impressive than anticipated due to the -AO/blocking this winter.

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Wantage NJ (this part). A conservative 1.4"    fine snow falling at the 730P report 22F. 

I think we should watch for IR enhancement seeding the deep moisture for larger flake and heavier snow rates. EC modeling has a pretty good baroclinic leaf developing e PA/NJ tomorrow morning.  Without radar indication of precip, or satellite enhancement, then it's just small flake snow, I think. 

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6 hours ago, RU848789 said:

So, we got almost all sleet since this post around 1:00 pm, when I cleared the board (it had been 6 hours), and we got another 1/2" of sleet over the last 1.5 hours, so that makes 4.0" of snow/sleet, which includes about 1" of sleet, which is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow (if one uses a conservative 3" sleet to 1" liquid to 10" snow (some use 2.5:1), 1" sleet is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow).  So I have a "snow equivalent" of 6.3", which I'm pretty happy with.  I usually shovel in shots, but I was out today, so I did it all at once and it absolutely felt like ~6" of snow.  Would've been much prettier to have had all snow, but plenty of models were showing sleet up through the 95 corridor, so can't complain.  Would be nice to get another inch or two tonight/tomorrow morning.  We'll see.  

People need to be careful out there. I just woke up from a nap and missed the freezing rain (ZR). We have a decent glaze (guessing 0.05-0.10") on everything and it's slippery on any untreated surface. Luckily I had put salt down where I had shoveled.  

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