WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 You guys ever see the thickness lines look like latitude lines all the way across the country the way they do on the gfs 6 hr map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: See my post though. Euro and GFS have totally different precip jackpots. Almost 1” QPF difference in some spots. It's for the same reason. This isnt really a synoptic event and very hard to get qpf right. If this was a warm spring boundary event the qpf spread would be even bigger but nobody would care. It's basically a slow moving/stalled front that wobbles around with a moisture feed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The GFS is rolling out slower than my 1985 Datsun. At 12 it appears there is less cold push. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But we aren’t talking about 100 hours away. And we aren’t talking about one model and it’s variance. We are talking about the large disparity between models. How would you feel about a hurricane landfall forecast that was wrong by 75 miles 24 hours out? is the guidance that divergent...or are we just giving too much weight to ONE MODEL. Yea I know its "the king" but its prone to errors just like the others. While better its scores are not so superior that it should be taken against all other evidence. Right now it seems to be completely on its own with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away. That is a big deal because we are now in range that the 0z meso guidance coming out should be given some significant weight and it all agrees with a more north wave 1 like the GFS/ICON/GGEM. The euro is a little south with wave 2...but not THAT much, its the differences wave 1 that make it look so crazy off...and plus if we cannot trust its representation of wave 1 why can we trust what it is showing wave 2? IMO its likely the euro is just having an issue here. If we ignore it...the rest of guidance isn't really that far apart from each other imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Gfs has 0.15 in dc through 1pm Thursday. That, won’t get it done for wave 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS is drier but nowhere near as dry as the Euro still. Wave 2 more north than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 One of the big two is going down hard in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 DT has to be sweating the GFS. Dont know how CHO is getting 10 inches off of .3 qpf. Saturday storm incoming on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The gfs certainly doesn’t look like DTs map that’s for sure. Zero snow south of EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFSv16 jackpots DC in wave 1. Thin horizontal strip of 0.5-0.6 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Gfs has 0.15 in dc through 1pm Thursday. That, won’t get it done for wave 1 New GFS wildly disagrees lol. There's quite the difference in output for wave 1 to say the least 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: DT has to be sweating the GFS. Dont know how CHO is getting 10 inches off of .3 qpf. When did east of C'ville turn into a desert? What's up with the GFS streaming precip to just west of C'ville and then pretty much drying it out? Weird depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: New GFS wildly disagrees lol. There's quite the difference in output for wave 1 to say the least Well so far in the 00z suite for wave 1 seems like its NAM/RGEM/PARA GFS vs GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WB 0Z GFS through Friday 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 New GFS looks a lot like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS has the Saturday sleet bomb as well. It is a really weird run. Snows on Winchester for hours as the storm approaches. I would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Is LWX going straight to advisories/warnings tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like a big ice storm is in play for Central Virginia..... GFS and RGEM are showing significant ice accumulations. Wondering what AKQ will out out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: GFS has the Saturday sleet bomb as well. Very cold at the surface too. Unusual. A glacier on top of whatever fall thurs/fri would be pretty awesome. I love that stuff 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS through Friday 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Somebody from Fredericksburg to PSU land will do well. But at this point i think you could throw a dart in that range and have as good a chance as the models. I know where I’m aiming my dart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Very cold at the surface too. Unusual. A glacier on top of whatever fall thurs/fri would be pretty awesome. I love that stuff Well mid 20s is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: is the guidance that divergent...or are we just giving too much weight to ONE MODEL. Yea I know its "the king" but its prone to errors just like the others. While better its scores are not so superior that it should be taken against all other evidence. Right now it seems to be completely on its own with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away. That is a big deal because we are now in range that the 0z meso guidance coming out should be given some significant weight and it all agrees with a more north wave 1 like the GFS/ICON/GGEM. The euro is a little south with wave 2...but not THAT much, its the differences wave 1 that make it look so crazy off...and plus if we cannot trust its representation of wave 1 why can we trust what it is showing wave 2? IMO its likely the euro is just having an issue here. If we ignore it...the rest of guidance isn't really that far apart from each other imo. PSU -- do you remember what the Euro was showing for the Bob Chill storm in 2019? I seem to recall that it was way drier than reality even up to and during the early parts of the storm. Maybe it just isn't as hot with this type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 CWG in with the strong "1-10 inches, low confidence" forecast 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: is the guidance that divergent...or are we just giving too much weight to ONE MODEL. Yea I know its "the king" but its prone to errors just like the others. While better its scores are not so superior that it should be taken against all other evidence. Right now it seems to be completely on its own with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away. That is a big deal because we are now in range that the 0z meso guidance coming out should be given some significant weight and it all agrees with a more north wave 1 like the GFS/ICON/GGEM. The euro is a little south with wave 2...but not THAT much, its the differences wave 1 that make it look so crazy off...and plus if we cannot trust its representation of wave 1 why can we trust what it is showing wave 2? IMO its likely the euro is just having an issue here. If we ignore it...the rest of guidance isn't really that far apart from each other imo. Tbh I think the models are significantly divergent. Maybe I’m wrong though. But to me the differences are utterly enormous given our timeframe. The mesos and globals are at serious odds with each other, and there are differences within THOSE groups too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Think this is true but the euro is a little outside of that range. And 75 miles is pretty big in an east west event made even more so by the fact that it’s a narrow stripe to begin with. That’s more than a degree latitude. 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: DT has to be sweating the GFS. Dont know how CHO is getting 10 inches off of .3 qpf. Saturday storm incoming on the GFS. We're going to get shellacked 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: We're going to get shellacked I keep thinking you are in DC... when you are really in NW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Man just completely smoked down here on sat/sun with freezing rain on GFS. Would be lights out verbatim. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Would be lights out Literally 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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