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January 30-February 1 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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Well I'll gladly step in and be the one to issue the Winter Storm Watch for LOT. My attention is now shifting to how I'm safely going to get to the office for my Saturday night midnight shift lol. As modeled, the support for widespread intense snowfall rates Saturday evening into the overnight looks better than we have seen locally in quite some time.

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11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Haha yeah. Watch sampling take this to West Branch. Serious tho, we could stand a slight bump or two going forward. RDPS looks whiffy

Yeah that would be our luck. Wonder if the wave ejects further south. Currently riding the trough out west. Sampling/tomorrow’s runs should help with this but I’m willing to be we actually get our first legitimate “storm” (2-4”) out of this.

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11 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Given the lack of any significant snow in my area on the models I can assure you the more southern route is definitely the correct solution. You just can’t make it snow more than a few inches in the vicinity of GRR this year. 

So not only do we use reverse psychology on our kids, but also on ourselves, LOL.  

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For me here timing will be crucial. If precip can move in Sat evening vs afternoon I stand a better chance of seeing wintry precip. I do think that there could still be a nice burst of heavy snow with dynamic and evaporative cooling for areas further south that will likely changeover at some point. Here's to hoping. 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Going out on a limb with that one, lol

I busted badly on the recent storm so am in need of a redeemer.  All I'd say at this point is that I would be stunned beyond belief to come in under 6"

I agree. I think it's a good floor though in case thermals actualize very poor and dendrite quality is sub par. I want to believe over 12" is achievable but bottom line is our climo does not support it historically and this event does not appear exceptional.

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Apparently it's time to call it. 8.5".
Dry air not an issue this time around, but ratios may struggle. However, they often seem to do better than expected in heavy banding, so I could be low-balling. Looks like a serious thump for several hours before it wanes. Got a hike planned into the backyard forest preserve and over to the ol' sled hill around 9 PM Saturday night. Hoping it'll be ripping hard.

We'll have a more-than-solid 14" OTG if my prediction pans out. January 2019 was probably the last time we had snow that deep.

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