Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, USCG RS said:

ICON is as good as a pop icon. Looks pretty but not much too it. 

It's QPF output and thermals are a joke most of the time. 

[chrisNJ]

It’s a weenie clown map but when in our region have we ever seen 52” output in a storm?  Never!  

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lol 46"+

I'm gonna have to sell that. 

You're not sold on this?

 

 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, chrisNJ said:

It’s a weenie clown map but when in our region have we ever seen 52” output in a storm?  Never!  

Usually when models start spitting out these type numbers there’s something to it. I’m not saying 4 feet but someone in PA or NJ I could see 2-3 feet. 

[chrisNJ]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Usually when models start spitting out these type numbers there’s something to it. I’m not saying 4 feet but someone in PA or NJ I could see 2-3 feet. 

The banding watching will be fun. Like in December when I watched the biblical band in NC PA head and pivot to the BGM area. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Or the late Feb 2010 storm that nailed you guys.

That one was something alright. I used to live 25 miles SE of NYC and left for Manhattan that day in a driving rain and then it flipped completely to snow midway through Queens. Manhattan was a whiteout. When I came back I followed the R/S line as it pivoted east and got home literally as it changed to snow. I ended up with 10" or so and Central Park 22". Winds were insane too, well over 60mph. It was northern stream driven but had a good tropical moisture feed as well. 

[southbuffalowx]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Usually when models start spitting out these type numbers there’s something to it. I’m not saying 4 feet but someone in PA or NJ I could see 2-3 feet. 

For what it's worth, I recall the rgem being spot on for the forecast in Binghamton during the December storm. But it was consistent with that jackpot for 12-24 hours prior.

It also did the best job forecasting Buffalo's post Christmas LES storm. It has a pretty good track record.

[jm1220]

Just now, chrisNJ said:

The banding watching will be fun. Like in December when I watched the biblical band in NC PA head and pivot to the BGM area. 

Not sure if this will be the same with the crazy deform band. This seems to be much more based on the initial warm air advection snow then the low occludes/matures which would stop the consistent heavy snow banding. But maybe, who knows. 

[kat5hurricane]

Getting the Rgem on board was big because it was an outlier in the opposite direction of the Nam. Now watch the goofus go to Bermuda or something like that just to screw with us.

[chrisNJ]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Not sure if this will be the same with the crazy deform band. This seems to be much more based on the initial warm air advection snow then the low occludes/matures which would stop the consistent heavy snow banding. But maybe, who knows. 

Regardless I think we can say we will surpass the dud winter of last year in the next few days. We remain spoiled. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

Regardless I think we can say we will surpass the dud winter of last year in the next few days. We remain spoiled. 

I already did with the storm in December.

I got only 2.3 inches last year

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I already did with the storm in December.

I got only 2.3 inches last year

you might get 2.3 inches in one hour if the banding sets up right...LOL

[chrisNJ]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I already did with the storm in December.

I got only 2.3 inches last year

The point being all the complaining can go away.  If this pans out well, we’ve had really good snowstorms over the past 5 years. 
 

Btw, where’s snowman19?  Had to say it. 99% lurker so I’ll head back to my lurker shed. 

[MJO812]

[stemwinder]

37 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the March 58 storm was almost a two day event...temps were 31-33 throughout the storm...

A super slop fest, even in South Orange NJ.  QPF must have been awesome.

[weatherpruf]

31 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

That crippled nyc and left persons stranded on highways. 

I lived through it. Worked as a weekend guard at a Foodtown warehouse. I believe it was a Friday night event; I brought an extra  sandwich with me for the guy who was stuck there all night. I used the letter recognizing my " bravery" for years after that when applying for jobs....

[SnoSki14]

Better run of the regular GFS. Ticks the low a bit further west but front end dump is really strong.

Looks like the dry slot gets into NYC and west for a time before another round of snow as the low drifts east. 

Jackpot NNJ

[Cerinthe Major]

14 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

Regardless I think we can say we will surpass the dud winter of last year in the next few days. We remain spoiled. 

I moved here from the DC suburbs. We’ve already surpassed my last couple of dud winters! This is just gravy.

[MJO812]

15 inches for NYC on the GFS

It snows until Wednesday

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the March 58 storm was almost a two day event...temps were 31-33 throughout the storm...

And Morgantown, PA picked up 50” snow.

[jm1220]

Just now, Cerinthe Major said:

I moved here from the DC suburbs. We’ve already surpassed my last couple of dud winters! This is just gravy.

Welcome! This is definitely a better area for snow generally than around DC and you live in a good location on LI as well for snow. 

[Jt17]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

15 inches for NYC on the GFS

It snows until Wednesday

And this is the tamest total of any model - wonder what the para shows!

[cleetussnow]

37 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Areas north and west smoked.  Really this is the best looking gfs run yet including the para.  

[jm1220]

GFS v16 looks about the same so far through 54, a bit less on the snow totals generally which was expected obviously but still major for most. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

And this is the tamest total of any model - wonder what the para shows!

A monster

Still snowing here

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

15 inches for NYC on the GFS

It snows until Wednesday

So every 0z model so far  has 12+ for NYC

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

So every 0z model so far  has 12+ for NYC

Yes

[kat5hurricane]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

So every 0z model so far  has 12+ for NYC

all have 15+ basically.

[SnoSki14]

I wonder why they trimmed my warning totals down from 11-15" to 9-15".

[Albedoman]

RGEM  welcome to Macungie PA  the new Mammoth Springs CA  LMAO