Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

So every 0z model so far  has 12+ for NYC

Every model tn has 15"+ even out here lol

[jm1220]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder why they trimmed my warning totals down from 11-15" to 9-15".

If the trend tonight continues I would think totals across the board would be upped. 

[Rjay]

Just now, Albedoman said:

RGEM  welcome to Macungie PA  the new Mammoth Springs CA  LMAO   

 

 

Lol.  I hate kuchera maps but that one is worth a weenie or 2.

[jm1220]

GFS v16 through 72. Has snow showers for most on Tue that would add maybe an additional 1-3" to what we get on Mon. 

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Every model tn has 15"+ even out here lol

Totals seem similar for nyc and LI even with some models showing LI changing to rain 

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Totals seem similar for nyc and LI even with some models showing LI changing to rain 

Models are really keying in on the insane front end and lift on the easterly jet. It'll have tons of moisture with it. 90% of what falls is Mon morning to evening on that batch. It holds the warm air back so if that happens the changeover would be when the dryslot comes in. 

[MJO812]

CMC is drool worthy

[eduggs]

We can't ask for better model runs a day before go time. I can't remember another storm during the 4-times-per-day modeling era where pretty much everything was showing area wide 1.5" snow liquid equivalent.  The risk here is that we're pricing in the huge totals and setting ourselves up for disappointment if only a foot falls. 

I plan to try not to obsess over the radar on Monday, but I will probably anyway.

[MJO812]

Top analog for this event from CIPS is Blizzard  of 96 lol

[chrisNJ]

19 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

I moved here from the DC suburbs. We’ve already surpassed my last couple of dud winters! This is just gravy.

I moved to NJ from GA in 2004. I’ve become complacent already. I use to be ecstatic with flurries. 

[jm1220]

Just now, eduggs said:

We can't ask for better model runs a day before go time. I can't remember another storm during the 4-times-per-day modeling era where pretty much everything was showing area wide 1.5" snow liquid equivalent.  The risk here is that we're pricing in the huge totals and setting ourselves up for disappointment if only a foot falls. 

I plan to try not to obsess over the radar on Monday, but I will probably anyway.

Yep. I'm legit getting pumped now. I don't expect 20+ but it'll be a very sizeable event for the vast majority of us. 

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

See my post about 1983...similar type setup with that east inflow and Allentown saw 5 inches an hour and 15 in 4 hours I think 

Growing up in Allentown the old timers would always talk about that storm before 96 and 93, even though 96 ended up dropping a few more inches. 

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Top analog for this event from CIPS is Blizzard  of 96 lol

Which I can't really understand as it was a Miller A. This won't be nearly as good as that was SW of Philly. Miller B's never are. 

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Which I can't really understand as it was a Miller A. This won't be nearly as good as that was SW of Philly. Miller B's never are. 

Agree some nice overrunning tomorrow for that region but they mostly will miss out on the coastal 

[SnoSki14]

Still can't believe it'll be snowing tomorrow evening into Wednesday possibly. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

I moved to NJ from GA in 2004. I’ve become complacent already. I use to be ecstatic with flurries. 

Moved Massapequa, NY 11758 to Dallas just after the Blizzard of 1978.  Dallas at least gets a dusting almost every Winter, Houston, last snow was a dusting in 2017.

One thing, one doesn't know what a real severe thunderstorm is living on Long Island.

[Gravity Wave]

15" for NYC on the new GEFS, and that with three 6" whiffs mixed in.

[jm1220]

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Moved Massapequa, NY 11758 to Dallas just after the Blizzard of 1978.  Dallas at least gets a dusting almost every Winter, Houston, last snow was a dusting in 2017.

One thing, one doesn't know what a real severe thunderstorm is living on Long Island.

I missed both Juno in Jan 2015 and Jonas in Jan 2016 when I was living in Austin, TX.  

Yes I definitely miss the severe weather down there. We don't hold a candle to what I saw in Austin. 

[NYR99]

How are the winds looking? Any chance at all of meeting blizzard criteria? 

[MJO812]

CMC

Wow

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NYR99 said:

How are the winds looking? Any chance at all of meeting blizzard criteria? 

Very gusty

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

CMC

Wow

It's what was expected and again probably not done trending. The max snow in a miller B doesn't happen in Allentown unfortunately for them, but they'll still do very well. 

[WEATHER53]

You get a foot plus and we get half foot plus so everybody happy!

[Albedoman]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

CMC

Wow

Macungie PA for the win. To good to be true. I know I will get some snow though

 

[SnoSki14]

Wow at CMC

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It's what was expected and again probably not done trending. The max snow in a miller B doesn't happen in Allentown unfortunately for them, but they'll still do very well. 

Think that shifts East? 

[jm1220]

Just now, Albedoman said:

Macungie PA for the win. To good to be true. I know I will get some snow though

 

You'll do very well but I would expect 12-18" maybe not 24"+. I think those totals would be closer to the coast (not on the coast though, just inland in the better ratios). 

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wow at CMC

 

 

I know... 1-2 feet up here in POU too 

[chrisNJ]

5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Moved Massapequa, NY 11758 to Dallas just after the Blizzard of 1978.  Dallas at least gets a dusting almost every Winter, Houston, last snow was a dusting in 2017.

One thing, one doesn't know what a real severe thunderstorm is living on Long Island.

That’s funny. I know personal experience sleeping in our basement as a kid in GA because of tornadoes. And having insulation in our yard from a nearby tornado. I also had 10” in superstorm of 93 shut us down for a week. I use to video flurries as a kid. Again, Im complacent now but still a kid at 43!

[HVSnowLover]

Not surprised cmc looks similar to rgem