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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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Has the Euro ever been more amped or tucked than the NAM with a major snowstorm before? Seems like the NAM is usually in the amped up lead like we saw with Jan 2016. The Euro was more suppressed right up until the storm. So maybe the Euro is in error here and the dry slot remains to our east.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the issue I have is treating long island like a conglomerate, eastern LI is 100 miles east of here lol, a big difference when it comes to a storm like this.  It may still mix this far west but it wont matter in terms of accumulations.  I also included a list of 3 storms where JFK mixed some and still beat NYC in accumulations.  I should also include the Millenium storm which didn't mix here but did just to our east on a further west track than this so that would make it 4 storms.

 

Agree longitude in this setup especially matters more than latitude.

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4 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

5 years since the January 2016 storm dropped 32” on us. I’ll never forget that one. My wife was pregnant with our first, had a 12 week old puppy, my dad was in post-op from double knee replacement and I shoveled from 6:00 am until the evening. 

Not making a forecast but wow at these latest runs. 

that storm was the GOAT for greatest coverage of 30"+ inch over the largest population I've ever seen from any storm.

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

Has the Euro ever been more amped or tucked than the NAM with a major snowstorm before? Seems like the NAM is usually in the amped up lead like we saw with Jan 2016. The Euro was more suppressed right up until the storm. So maybe the Euro is in error here and the dry slot remains to our east.

so you like the disco put out by Upton?

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Agree it’s hard to see LI not mixing on a prolonged east wind, euro even has mixing NW of the city during the dry slot. It’s possible as many are saying the models shift back east a bit today which would then move the mix line further east. Again it’s inconsequential because you wouldn’t be accumulating much in a dry slot anyway. 

I just have to go with probabilistic. IF the GFSV16 wins, I learn... but too many models now mixing to NYC. Rgem even has sleet into Middlesex county tomorrow morning for a time.  My guess this storm is going to knock out power to at least 100, 000 customers.  Some of our posters may suffer with this, either no comms, or home damage.  This to me is a storm that administrators need to pause life for 12-18 hours tomorrow and then allow for late night cleanup and declare snow emergencies. Just my take. If the 12z models back off, then they can save the embarrassment but as I see it,  this is a worthy consideration. 

FIRST responders are going to need access to places to save lives.  Did I say dangerous? While wind probably stays under 70 MPH on LI,  it's still quite a storm. 

IF temp at CP can stay under 33F Monday night, then we're good for much more than a foot NYC.  I cannot confidently say to media and whomever, that that is the prevailing.  You can give them that 18-20" option but broadcast probable.  A foot will make many happy, i think.  

I

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Has the Euro ever been more amped or tucked than the NAM with a major snowstorm before? Seems like the NAM is usually in the amped up lead like we saw with Jan 2016. The Euro was more suppressed right up until the storm. So maybe the Euro is in error here and the dry slot remains to our east.

It’s definitely possible. Right now temps are forecasted to reach mid to upper 30s for nyc and LI tomorrow night but I can tell that’s based off euro track. If this slides east it will be much colder 

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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Possibly in this setup although I expect a sharp cutoff somewhere along the Jersey coast probably near Toms River 

exactly what I was thinking.  I'd extend that line from Toms River up to about the Hamptons and then a more gradual change from there on west and north.

 

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5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree longitude in this setup especially matters more than latitude.

We have a second house in Wading River for 30 plus years.

Sometimes, during extreme coastal storms, they have done better than city.

But for the most part, the climate fundamentals are against a start to finish coastal snowstorm on eastern LI. They are surrounded by water that is well above freezing all year long. 

The needle has to thread perfectly, and when it does it’s usually not a perfect storm for the city because it is too far east

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1 minute ago, wdrag said:

I just have to go with probabilistic. IF the GFSV16 wins, I learn... but too many models now mixing to NYC. Rgem even has sleet into Middlesex county tomorrow morning for a time.  My guess this storm is going to knock out power to at least 100, 000 customers.  Some of our posters may suffer with this, either no comms, or home damage.  This to me is a storm that administrators need to pause life for 12-18 hours tomorrow and then allow for late night cleanup and declare snow emergencies. Just my take. If the 12z models back off, then they can save the embarrassment but as I see it,  this is a worthy consideration. 

FIRST responders are going to need access to places to save lives.  Did I say dangerous? While wind probably stays under 70 MPH on LI,  it's still quite a storm. 

IF temp at CP can stay under 33F Monday night, then we're good for much more than a foot NYC.  I cannot confidently say to media and whomever, that that is the prevailing.  You can give them that 18-20" option but broadcast probable.  A foot will make many happy, i think.  

I

that makes sense, although if you look at the latest runs of the Euro/NAM/GFS/paraGFS they all have over a foot of snow at JFK.

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3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

We have a second house in Wading River for 30 plus years.

Sometimes, during extreme coastal storms, they have done better than city.

But for the most part, the climate fundamentals are against a start to finish coastal snowstorm on eastern LI. They are surrounded by water that is well above freezing all year long. 

The needle has to thread perfectly, and when it does it’s usually not a perfect storm for the city because it is too far east

a few storms where you did really well and the city and western nassau did not would be Dec 2009, Feb 2013, Jan 2015.  And also the middle storm in Jan 2011.  We must quality that we're talking about relative wellness here lol.....10" is what we got in those (except Dec 2009 which was 15")  but you all got 20-25 in those storms!

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6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I just have to go with probabilistic. IF the GFSV16 wins, I learn... but too many models now mixing to NYC. Rgem even has sleet into Middlesex county tomorrow morning for a time.  My guess this storm is going to knock out power to at least 100, 000 customers.  Some of our posters may suffer with this, either no comms, or home damage.  This to me is a storm that administrators need to pause life for 12-18 hours tomorrow and then allow for late night cleanup and declare snow emergencies. Just my take. If the 12z models back off, then they can save the embarrassment but as I see it,  this is a worthy consideration. 

FIRST responders are going to need access to places to save lives.  Did I say dangerous? While wind probably stays under 70 MPH on LI,  it's still quite a storm. 

IF temp at CP can stay under 33F Monday night, then we're good for much more than a foot NYC.  I cannot confidently say to media and whomever, that that is the prevailing.  You can give them that 18-20" option but broadcast probable.  A foot will make many happy, i think.  

I

Life has been paused since March 13. haha. No rush to the local train station on Tuesday I can assure you

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

that makes sense, although if you look at the latest runs of the Euro/NAM/GFS/paraGFS they all have over a foot of snow at JFK.

Yes...i can see 1 foot JFK/LGA CP...easily  but somewhere I need to throw caution to the wind of 50-55 MPH there.  how do we measure?  

 

 

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9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so you like the disco put out by Upton?

Yeah, we should all go 12”+ on the front end of the storm. But we need to park under the CCB to go 20”+. I guess the 12z runs will add some clarity as to where the CCB and dryslot set up.

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that makes sense, although if you look at the latest runs of the Euro/NAM/GFS/paraGFS they all have over a foot of snow at JFK.

I get what he’s saying realistically it’s hard to get a over a foot from one giant band but not impossible. Two factors I think would increase probability of over a foot which would be getting some accumulation tonight from overrunning before the main show and if there is any accumulation on the backend. 

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

I get what he’s saying realistically it’s hard to get a over a foot from one giant band but not impossible. Two factors I think would increase probability of over a foot which would be getting some accumulation tonight from overrunning before the main show and if there is any accumulation on the backend. 

yep overrunning is usually where we make our snow around here lol, some of the biggest ones were mostly overrunning moisture attacking arctic air like Feb 83 and PD2 and probably a few others I'm forgetting.

 

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26 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Please go with what you think. 06z/31 EC  still has it going to rain between 00z-03z/2 but by that time the damage done on LI/NYC.  Will be close for NYC but the dry slot is not good for continuous snow at marginal ice nuclei temps aloft   (need -7-8C in the > 70% RH column to allow for snow). This is for LI, so without cirrus seeding it looks difficult for me to see all snow NYC. This may change, but, as a forecaster, I need to take into account probabilistic forecasts... There's only an updated 60-70% chance of 8+ in NYC.  I can see a foot in NYC by 7P Monday, maybe a touch more.  Then whatever happens NYC after 7P, I've no answer tho I think mostly mixed or rain till it goes back to snow late Tuesday.  Go with what you think is best.  Hope that helps understand my considerations. 

Latest 06z/31 GGEM snowfall. Impressive! 06z/31 EC  10 to 1 snow ratio snowfall for NYC attached as well. Just enjoy whatever.  

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-31 at 7.25.49 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-31 at 7.42.09 AM.png

Walt, good morning do you have a link for the graphic of Latest 06z/31 GGEM snowfall. Impressive! 06z/31 EC ( hard to discern) Thanks

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

I only got 6, but that trend was apparent before this late in the game IIRC.

fwiw snowstorm anatomy is fascinating, it's interesting to see which area gets what as each event has its own unique personality.

Jan 2015 was a slight bust, but compared to say March 2001 it was absolutely delightful lol

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