Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

6-12 inch storm watch for NYC is starting to seem a little silly - it's been at that for nearly 10 hours and I think plenty of data has come in for Upton to bump that figure up and set a winter storm warning. 

Models have been unreliable recently and upton have gotten burned bad in the past predicting high amounts. So I could see why they would be cautious. 

[Snowlover11]

we should see an update with upton around 4am

[Jt17]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Models have been unreliable recently and upton have gotten burned bad in the past predicting high amounts. So I could see why they would be cautious. 

I hear you, but usually there's a model or 2 in a different camp and the mets go with model majority+climo and the different camp was onto something. No matter what camp you choose it's 12"+ the 6" just looks out to lunch this close to game time imo.

[Noteaster101]

TWC just increased its totals for my area here in Pearl River New York in Rockland County. 1 to 3 inches Sunday night, it was 5 to 8 inches on Nonday but they upped it to 8 to 12 inches during the day, 3 to 5 inches Monday night and 1 to 3 inches on Tuesday. 

[Sn0waddict]

25 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

I hear you, but usually there's a model or 2 in a different camp and the mets go with model majority+climo and the different camp was onto something. No matter what camp you choose it's 12"+ the 6" just looks out to lunch this close to game time imo.

I will be fully with you if we get through 12z tomorrow looking the same way. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

No. If this comes together right it can perhaps make it to 20" but the top 3 are all over 2 feet. 

the snow is gonna be too wet to do that.  I'm pretty confident we stay all snow but no way is this going to be over 2 feet and even 20 inches is a very long shot

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Verbatim it would but it would be as the heavy precip pivots away. The 10-1 ratio snow map has me at 14" but the precip total is about 1.7" liquid at the same point, so that would have 0.3" liquid as non snow. For the city the rain adds up to about 0.1". To me that means a very heavy initial snow thump followed by light rain/showers in the dry slot for a time. 

anything other than snow would be a very insignificant part of the storm outside of the twin forks and south of ocean county

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Jt17 said:

NAM is prob a little east and Euro a little west. Take a blend and you might have a better idea of the final map. That being said save for the far end of Long Island most of the subforum is in a good spot for 12-20+inches (and NYC is sort of smack in the center of both camps, fwiw)

I think I'm in a good place being on the extreme western part of the south shore

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Through 72 on this Euro run 

fwiw this actually has more snow on central long island than the previous run

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Verbatim it would but it would be as the heavy precip pivots away. The 10-1 ratio snow map has me at 14" but the precip total is about 1.7" liquid at the same point, so that would have 0.3" liquid as non snow. For the city the rain adds up to about 0.1". To me that means a very heavy initial snow thump followed by light rain/showers in the dry slot for a time. 

so this would be like a very heavy initial snow followed by a dry slot with very light showers followed by another moderate long duration snowfall as the low starts to pull away on Tuesday?

 

[weathermedic]

Upton issued winter storm warnings for everyone except extreme northern areas and eastern end of Suffolk. They are going with 12-18 inches for the city and mentions the possibility of blizzard warnings being needed for western Long Island, NYC and coastal Connecticut.

[snywx]

6 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Upton issued winter storm warnings for everyone except extreme northern areas and eastern end of Suffolk. They are going with 12-18 inches for the city and mentions the possibility of blizzard warnings being needed for western Long Island, NYC and coastal Connecticut.

Northern areas? 

[weathermedic]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

Northern areas? 

Ulster and Dutchess still under a watch.

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, Morrissnowlover said:

6z GFS is crushing Morristown and surrounding area wow!

sounds like Jan 2016

[weathermedic]

Coastal flood warnings up for southern Queens and Nassau for the Monday AM and PM high tide cycles. Moderate to isolated major flooding expected. 

[snywx]

8 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Ulster and Dutchess still under a watch.

Different office and later start time there 

[LibertyBell]

here is the discussion

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SYNOPSIS...
A major winter storm will begin to impact the Tri-State Region
tonight. The storm will continue into Monday night, with
lingering effects lasting into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A strong upr low can be seen on water vapor near the IL/IN
border this mrng. A solid arc of mid to high clouds were
overspreading the area ahead of the approaching sys. Increasing
clouds will therefore be the theme today, with perhaps some lgt
snow or flurries before dark across the swrn third of the cwa.
The NBM was followed with the typical adjustments for temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The fcst continues to trend snowier for much of the fcst area.

The modeling still leaves a good amount of uncertainty wrt
mixing for the ern half to third of the area. The NAM and GFS,
including the 6Z NAM, are essentially the cold models. The GFS
warmed the bl significantly during the aftn across LI, which
seemed unrealistic given the wind direction except for close to
the immediate south shore and Twin Forks. It stayed cold aloft.
The 00Z NAM kept the bl cold, but surged enough warm air aloft
to produce some mixing with sleet for much of LI by aftn. The
6Z run backed off on this. Both models warm things aloft briefly
aft 00Z Tue, but by then most of the damage will have been done.
The ECMWF came in with a warm soln, which would result in
extensive mixing even potentially to NYC by aftn. Based on the
good agreement between the NAM and GFS, and the good track
record of the NAM, the fcst leans on the American models. It is
a lean however and not a full buy in at this point.

Snowfall amounts have been increased for almost the entire
area. Amounts were lowered on the South Fork however. Despite
the fact that we are forecasting up to 18 inches of snow, these
numbers are conservative if you trust the NAM. The NAM suggests
that 2 ft is reasonable for this event where the heaviest band
sets up and where it remains mostly snow. Even LI is not out of
the woods for getting these max amounts if the GFS/NAM are
indeed correct with the temp profiles.

Warnings have been issued for all but the Twin Forks, where the
watch has been maintained. This is due to the mixing/rain
potential.

High winds will also impact the area with the storm. The peak
will be Mon and Mon eve. Gusts to around 60 mph still seem
likely, especially across the ern LI. Blizzard like conditions
can be expected with this storm, especially those areas near the
coast that remain all snow. An upgrade to a blizzard warning is
not out of the question for portions of the area. Those areas
most likely to go blizzard would be cstl CT, NYC, and wrn LI.

After the main snow band lifts north of the area Mon ngt, there
could be additional bands, albeit not as heavy, on the backside
of the sys right thru Tue. The upr low itself passes thru Tue
ngt, allowing for things to dry up by Wed mrng.

[snywx]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

sounds like Jan 2016

No where near it. I had flurries for that storm. Interior areas may Jp this one 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Coastal flood warnings up for southern Queens and Nassau for the Monday AM and PM high tide cycles. Moderate to isolated major flooding expected. 

interesting they are talking about to 2 ft possibly for NYC and Long Island and fully onboard with the American models (GFS/NAM) I guess the Euro hasn't had a great track record lately

[LibertyBell]

Just now, snywx said:

No where near it. I had flurries for that storm. Interior areas may Jp this one 

Possibly, but I was just talking about this region to Morristown where we had 30+.  I posted the discussion since the description given seemed a bit vague to me.

[dave0176]

What time is it expected to start tomorrow?

[tim]

..news 12 long island has 1-3" on the east end...has most of long island going over to rain.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, tim said:

..news 12 long island has 1-3" on the east end...has most of long island going over to rain.

Boston is also going to be mostly rain, it's for this reason I live on the extreme western end of Long Island, we dont usually change over on this kind of track (a good example is the Millenium Storm, which actually tracked west of where this one is supposed to go.)

 

[li_wx88]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Boston is also going to be mostly rain, it's for this reason I live on the extreme western end of Long Island, we dont usually change over on this kind of track (a good example is the Millenium Storm, which actually tracked west of where this one is supposed to go.)

 

News12 is always riding the mix/rain train, not saying it won't happen but think its going to be limited to the forks/montauk. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, li_wx88 said:

News12 is always riding the mix/rain train, not saying it won't happen but think its going to be limited to the forks/montauk. 

lol I never watch them, I used to watch their traffic and weather channel (61), but I also stopped watching that when they started putting nonsense programming on there.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Morrissnowlover said:

Are you kidding me! Holy crap!!! 6z RGEM crushing everyone 

very nice!  dont forget to post the GFS when it comes out

[wdrag]

Good Sunday morning everyone, Jan 31. Major near blizzard Nor'easter coming. I would not plan on driving anywhere on Monday in northern NJ, ne PA, se NYS and ditto CT Monday afternoon-night, MA Monday night.

 

NYC my guess is a foot, possibly more before mixed Monday night.

 

Otherwise,  amounts between 1-2 feet from I78 northward with lesser 8-18 inches CT and MA where rain/sleet invades later Monday night.

 

Isolated 30" possible nw NJ, or ne PA into the Catskills by the time this storm ends early Wednesday.. Drifts 3-4 feet. Power outages possible Monday afternoon and night from northern NJ northeastward to CT and Boston from a combination of heavy wetter (heart attack for the hear tcondition vulnerable) snow and northeast wind gusts of 40-55 MPH.

 

Snow starts central NJ around 3 PM, northern NJ-ne PA 6-10P, CT around dawn Monday. Worst of the storm NJ/PA sunrise Monday-midnight Monday night, CT Monday afternoon-night. 

 

Coastal flooding may be major near the midnight Monday high tide cycle? Follow NWS. 

 

1) SPC HREF snowfall ensemble 24 hours ending 7P Monday, may be conservative.

2) Winter Storm Severity Index   issued 4am

3) NWS forecast snowfall not updated yet beyond 3AM. I will replace the snow graphic by 7AM with their 5AM updated version. 6A/31.

 

 

 

 

 

NWS Ensemble prob for 8+ and 18+ issued at 430AM

[Metasequoia]

06Z Para GFS would do just fine for about everyone.  Model has been amazingly consistent.

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, Morrissnowlover said:

Has any one seen the 6Z RGEM wow just wow!

Likely way too amped but that's pretty typical of the Rgem. 15"+ seems likely before any dry slot or mixing for the city. 

06z Nam/Gfs/Para GFS were stellar. Personally hoping para scores a coup here.

[MJO812]

Winter Storm Warning here for NYC

14-18 inches

 

Wow